聚焦利润率与回报：Azure板块分析

ReutersMSFT.OQ Putting margins and returns under themicroscope: Azure Edition Brad ZelnickResearch Analyst+1-212-250-8563 Demand for AI infrastructure has drivena real inflectionin public cloud revenueand backlog growth, enabling long-standing leaders to reaccelerate off anincreasingly large base and creating an opening for new Neoclouds to enter whathad been largely an oligopoly market at significant scale. At the same time,however, margins across the industry have come under increased pressure fromrapidmix shift to what today is generally lower margin,less IP-rich AIinfrastructure services and the upfront costs required to massively scale newcapacity in an effort to meet demand. This is an issue we see management teams Bhavin Shah, CFAResearch Analyst+1-212-250-6775 Daniel KnauffResearch Associate Yash KejriwalResearch Associate We are planting our flag and affirming that current AI businessesacross the cloudproviders we coverareindeed value creative and based on current economics inthe market constitute a sustainable commercial foundation. Our view is based ona detailed analysis of public filings, financial statements, presentations andcommentary from companies across the industry that lead us to believe that those Following our prior reports onCoreWeave&Oracle, this third in our series focuseson Microsoft, and its Azure business in particular, where we dive into margins, mixand returns.Our conclusion is that while Azure gross margins appear to havecontracted sharply in recent years largely on mix dynamics, a majority of thisheadwind has been offset by OpEx leverage within the Intelligent Cloud (IC)segment. We see some of these pressures moderating ahead, enabling Azure confidence in Microsoft and its ability to sustain and expand company-leveloperating margins and continue compounding robust, value creative growth in The Setup & Key Takes Microsoft has been no exception to investor scrutiny around profitability of its AIcloud infrastructure business amid surging CapEx. Admittedly, this has beenrelatively less of a concern given the company's high margin core businesses andmassive embedded operating leverage, but the narrative here follows a similarpattern-AI driven growth pressuring margins that are further obscured near-term by upfront (pre-revenue) costs associated with an increasing scale of newcapacityadds and fading depreciation benefits from prior-year useful lifeaccounting changes. It's clear to us that Microsoft's management remains keenly •Azure gross margins could trough in the low-50s in FY27/28after havingtrended down from what we estimate with a high degree of confidencewere near 60% in FY24. This contraction has been driven by mix shifttoward lower-margin AI revenue, drag from pre-revenue scaling costsand the y/y impact of prior useful life accounting changes, each of whichwe think should ease as a headwind ahead and along with ongoing like- •AzureAIgross margins likely rise aheadfrom what we estimate to be inthe mid-high-20s range in FY26 as the business rapidly scales. Ourestimate leverages pre-FY24 disclosure as a baseline for non-AI marginsalong with company fillings, mgmt. commentary and industry data pointsas detailed herein. Going forward,we see tailwinds from renewed focusback on capturing engineering efficiencies across both HW & SW as thecompany gains experience consistently standing up larger increments of •Profitability of the IC segment (where Azure sits) appears highly durable as operating leverage is effectively neutralizing a majority ofthe grossmargin headwinds. Reported operating margins have eased only slightlythrough this CapEx heavy investment cycle for the Intelligent Cloud (IC) is a sustainable dynamic that,in our view,provides opportunity for bothIC and overall operating margins to expand gradually over the nextcoupleof years.A significant ramp in R&D spend and/or greater •Microsoft is sustaining strong returns despite a heavy investment cycle as the business rapidly transitions to a greater mix of Azure and AIinfrastructure in particular. We've found it very challenging to infer toomuch about AI-specific returns from public disclosures, but flag thatoverall company return on incremental invested capital, while lower than IC gross margins facing mix-related pressure While Microsoft doesn't explicitly disclose Azure COGS and margins, Azure'sincreasingly dominant revenue share within the Intelligent Cloud (IC) segment(now ~3/4 of mix) allows us to get a pretty good idea. Beginning with thepublication of its FY25 10K,the company now fully discloses IC segment COGSvs. previously just giving the y/y change on a rounded basis. From this historicalCOGS data, we see annual IC segment gross margins dropping from 66% in FY24,to 62% in FY25, and into the high-50%s in FY26to date. Incremental margins havebeen in the 40s for the past seven quarters. Mix shift is likely the largest While we think IC segment mix dynamics are well understood at a high-level, we