克服僵局2.0：破解电力瓶颈以驱动AI与能源安全

Solving Power Bottlenecks to Drive AI Guest Contributors Citi Research Commodities Strategy Ashwani KhubaniGlobal Head of PowerCiti Corporate Banking Equity Research Anthony YuenXiaodan Zhu Pierre Lau, CFABella TianAir MaAndrew KaplowitzVladimir BystrickyKyle MengesScott GruberJack ShangCynthia D Wu Charles BryantRyan LevineXinru YinAmber ZhaoJenny Ping June29, 2026 SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the “Firm”), which does and seeks to dobusiness with companiescoveredin its researchreports. As a result, investors should be awarethatthe Firm may havea conflict ofinterest that couldaffect the objectivity of this report. Investors shouldconsider this reportas only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (notinconsistent with the author’s published research) are available onlyon Citi’s portals. Contents 4Aconversation withCitiBanking 7AI & Energy Security Powerinfrastructure equipmentprospects—afocusontransformers Powergenerationequipment:Opportunitiesandsupply-chainbottlenecks Regional powermarket views:U.S.,Europe,China,AustraliaActionable ideasAconversation withCitiWealth 405153 Executive Summary Slowly, then suddenly.Demand for power, infrastructure, and generationequipment continues to rise, driven primarily by the U.S.-focused AI datacenter buildout. The Middle East conflict has sharpened focus on energysecurity. As countries seek to reduce import dependence andlimitexposure to price spikes, the reaccelerated adoption of renewables,batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs)willalso raisepowerequipmentdemand. However, grid expansion appears unable to keep pace withstrong demand and supply growth,constrained by equipment supply-chain challenges and well-meaning permitting frameworks in many AI is transformational and needs substantial power capex. Some cautionthatcertainaspects of AI look like a bubble. Our stance is thatpower is stillvery much needed as theJevons Paradox (Fortune, April 28)takes hold,and we see the related capex being utilized in the future. Moreover, energy security is now top-of-mind for many countries.This isthe top concern in the latestInternational Energy Agencyreport onSoutheast Asia. Unlike imported oil and natural gas, renewable energysources are typically domestically located. But relying on importedequipment for renewables introduces its own set of national securityconsiderations. Expanding the share ofelectric vehicles (EVs), which are And yet, the power grids needed to facilitate the AI and energy securitytransformations are typically enormous and slow to improve afterdecades of electrification and economic growth.Speed-to-power ispushing the evolution of the grid. Our prior study,Overcoming Gridlock:Powering Our Future (May 2024),had explored solutions, but powerdemand growth has materialized much stronger than expected.The Thus, speed-to-power concerns drive demand for power generationequipment:frommore efficient combined cycle gas turbines; to smaller,less efficient reciprocating engines, aeroderivative turbines and fuel cells;to the use of renewables and energy storage systems. Much of the above- This report draws on experts across the firm to examine this megatrend—Research (global commodities, utilities, industrials, materials and U.S.midstream), and Q&As with Banking and Wealth—for a holistic study. Anthony Yuen Head of Energy Strategy AConversation Citi Banking personnel are not research analysts, and the informationpresentedhereinis not intended to constitute “research,” as that term isdefined by applicable regulations. Unless otherwiseindicated, any Ashwani Khubaniis Citi’s Global Head of Power Corporate Banking. He isresponsible for the firm’s senior client relationships across the Power,Utilities, and Renewables sectors. Ashwani’s counsel is focused on thedefining themes shaping the global energy landscape: Energy Transition, There is strong demand for power equipment, driven by strong growth indata center power demand and the reacceleration of renewables andelectric vehicles in parts of the world, partly due to energy security needs. What do you see as key supply-chain bottlenecks in the equipmentspace? The supply chain of Transmission & Distribution and Gas Generation ismost constrained. Gas Turbines are costing 2-3x what they used to cost Do you think the market underestimates the scale and duration of thesesupply-chain bottlenecks? We believe the market has not understood the real issues with the supplychain and there is general ambiguity around the whole supply chain of With power grid improvements not necessarily keeping pace with powerdemand, more project developers optfor “bring your own generation”(BYOG)1. Yet, order books of gas turbines are very strong now that newer- As OEMs have historically been cautious about adding too muchcapacity, are turbine and engine manufacturers and