爱尔兰：选定问题

IRELAND SELECTED ISSUES June 2026 This paperonIrelandwas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund asbackground documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org IRELAND SELECTED ISSUES June 10, 2026 Approved By Prepared by Mohammad Khabbazan (ICD) CONTENTS ESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF AI, TRADE POLICY, AND THE ENERGYTRANSITION: AN APPLICATION TO IRELAND ______________________________________3 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________3B. Model Framework and Scenario Design______________________________________________4 FIGURES 1. Real GDP and Price Index Impacts in Tariff and Trade Agreements Scenarios ________72. Real Export and Export Price Impacts in Tariff and Trade Agreements Scenarios _____8 IRELAND 14. Selected Sectoral LaborMovementinCarbonPricingPolicyScenarios___________________19 TABLES 1. Scenario Description_________________________________________________________________________62. Trade Flows in Tariff and Trade Agreements Scenarios_______________________________________9 ANNEXES I. The Economic Structure of the Model and the Key Substitution Elasticities_________________21II. Sectoral Mapping__________________________________________________________________________24 References____________________________________________________________________________________29 ESTIMATING THE IMPACTSOF AI, TRADEPOLICY, ANDTHEENERGY TRANSITION: AN APPLICATION TO Developments in trade policy,AI, and the energy transitionare shaping small open economies. Thispaperusesastatic,multi‑region, multi‑sector computable general equilibrium modelto assesstheimpacts ofthese forceson Irelandin the long runthrough three channels: (i)currenttariffs and tradeagreements, (ii) AI‑driven productivity gains, and (iii) carbon pricing, abstracting fromshort-rundynamics and frictions.The findings suggest that(i)the currenttrade policy shocks primarily redirecttrade across partners and sectors, with modest aggregate output and export effects; (ii)AI‑drivenproductivity gainscangenerate strong output and export growth, particularly in knowledge‑intensive A.Introduction 1.Artificial intelligence, trade policy shifts, and the energy transition are simultaneouslyreshaping the outlook for small open economies.For Ireland, these structural forces areparticularly salient given the economy’s openness, deep integration into global value chains, andspecialization in high‑value tradable sectors. Changes in tariff regimes and the emergence of newtrade agreements can alter relative market access and reconfigure export patterns, while AI‑driven 2.To assess these interactions quantitatively, this paper brings trade policy, AI‑drivenproductivity gains, and climate policies together within a single, integrated analytical framework.Using a multi‑region, multi‑sector computable general equilibrium model calibrated toa 2025 baseline, the analysis embeds granular tariff data and sector‑ and region‑specific AIproductivity shocks,allowing policy changes and technological advances to interact consistentlythrough relative prices, production structures, bilateral trade flows, and factor markets. Theframework highlights the distinctandinterrelated channels through which trade policy re‑routesactivity across markets, AI amplifies growth and competitiveness through the supply side, and carbon pricing reshapes sectoral composition and energy use. By comparing standalone andcombined scenarios, the paper clarifies whether trade adjustment operates primarily through pricesor quantities, how AI‑driven productivity reshapes Ireland’s economic structure, and the extent to B.Model Frameworkand Scenario Design 3.The paper aims to quantify Ireland’s adjustment to trade shocks, AI-relatedproductivity changes, and climate policy using a multi-region, multi-sector computablegeneral equilibrium (CGE) model.The analysis is implemented in CGE-MOD (Khabbazan and VonHirschhausen, 2021), a static general equilibrium framework designed to capture economy-widespillovers through relative prices, trade flows, sectoral reallocation, and factor markets. The modelfeatures nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) technologies and a standard Armingtontrade structure:inputsare differentiated by origin, while domestic output is allocated betweendomestic and export markets via constant elasticity of transformation (CET) functions, so trade 4.The framework features an explicit treatment of energy, allowing emissions torespond through both activity and composition channels.Electricity generation is disaggregatedby technology, including renewables, nuclear, fossil‑fuel‑based generation, and other sources, sothat changes in relative costs