爱尔兰：选定问题

IRELAND SELECTED ISSUES This paperonIrelandwas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund asbackground documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It isbased on the information available at the time it was completed onJune 10, 2026. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IRELAND SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean Department Prepared by Mohammad Khabbazan (ICD) CONTENTS ESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF AI, TRADE POLICY, AND THE ENERGYTRANSITION: AN APPLICATION TO IRELAND ______________________________________3 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________3B. Model Framework and Scenario Design______________________________________________4C. Tariff and Trade Agreements: Re‑Shaping Global Trade______________________________7D. Artificial Intelligence and Productivity Gains _______________________________________10E. Carbon Pricing Policy and Trade‑Offs ______________________________________________15F. Concluding Remarks _______________________________________________________________20 FIGURES 1. Real GDP and Price Index Impacts in Tariff and Trade Agreements Scenarios ________72. Real Export and Export Price Impacts in Tariff and Trade Agreements Scenarios _____83. Selected Sectoral Real Output and Real Export Impacts in Tariff and TradeAgreements Scenarios ________________________________________________________________ 104. Selected Sectoral Labor Movement in Tariff and Trade Agreements Scenarios ____ 105. Real GDP and Price Index Impacts in AI-Driven Productivity Gains Scenarios_______ 116. Real Export and Export Price Impacts in AI-Driven Productivity Gains Scenarios____ 127. Selected Sectoral Real Output and Real Export Impacts in AI-Driven ProductivityGains Scenarios_______________________________________________________________________ 138. Renewable Share in Electricity Productions and CO2 Emission in AI-DrivenProductivity Gains Scenarios__________________________________________________________ 149. Selected Sectoral Labor Movement in AI-Driven Productivity Gains Scenarios_____ 1510. Real GDP and Price Index Impacts in Carbon Pricing Policy Scenarios ____________ 1611. Renewable Share in Electricity Productions and Carbon Price in Carbon PricingPolicy Scenarios ______________________________________________________________________ 1712. Real Export and Export Price Impacts in Carbon Pricing Policy Scenarios _________ 1813. Selected Sectoral Real Output and Real Export Impacts in Carbon PricingPolicy Scenarios ______________________________________________________________________ 19 14. Selected Sectoral LaborMovementinCarbonPricingPolicyScenarios___________________19 TABLES 1. Scenario Description_________________________________________________________________________62. Trade Flows in Tariff and Trade Agreements Scenarios_______________________________________93. Selected Macro Indicators in Tariff and Trade Agreements Scenarios________________________94. Trade Flows in AI-Driven Productivity Gains Scenarios_____________________________________125. Selected Macro Indicators in AI-Driven Productivity Gains Scenarios_______________________146. Trade Flows in CarbonPricingPolicy Scenarios____________________________________________187. Selected Macro Indicators in CarbonPricingPolicy Scenarios______________________________18 ANNEXES I. The Economic Structure of the Model and the Key Substitution Elasticities_________________21II. Sectoral Mapping__________________________________________________________________________24III. Sectoral Results____________________________________________________________________________26IV. Labor Movement__________________________________________________________________________28 References____________________________________________________________________________________29 ESTIMATING THE IMPACTSOF AI, TRADEPOLICY, ANDTHEENERGY TRANSITION: AN APPLICATION TOIRELAND1 Developments in trade policy,AI, and the energy transitionare shaping small open economies. Thispaperusesastatic,multi‑region, multi‑sector computable general equilibrium modelto assesstheimpacts ofthese forceson Irelandin the long runthrough three channels: (i)currenttariffs and tradeagreements, (ii) AI‑driven productivity gains, and (iii) carbon pricing, abstracting fromshort-rundynamics and frictions.The findings suggest that(i)the currenttrade policy shocks primarily redirecttrade across partners and sectors, with modest aggregate output and export effects; (ii)AI‑drivenproductivity gainscangenerate strong output and export growth, particularly in knowledge‑intensivesectors, while inducing significant sectoral labor reallocationanddistributional implications acrossfacto