锡-周报：宏观加息预期扰动，锡价周内大幅回调

锡：宏观加息预期扰动，锡价周内大幅回调 作者 宏观压制，锡价周内下滑 本周宏观利空因素集中释放，美联储紧缩预期升温叠加外盘科技股回调，市场风险偏好走弱。截至2026/06/26，SMM: 1#锡价收于38万元/吨，环比-9.3%，SHFE锡价收于38.7万元/吨，环比-6.5%，LME锡收于51000美元/吨，环比-4.5%。 分析师廖浩祥SAC：S1070526040006邮箱：liaohaoxiang@cgws.com 价跌下游接货意愿增加，周内去库幅度加大 需求端，现货市场方面，锡价大幅下跌后，部分厂家惜售情绪升温，持货商出货相对顺畅，下游接货意愿有所增强，逢低适量补库。但受制于传统消费淡季，整体成交改善有限。行业方面，苹果本周官宣涨价，一定程度影响了市场对消费电子需求的担忧。 分析师熊可为SAC：S1070525110001邮箱：xiongkewei@cgws.com 库存端，本周，SMM国内锡锭社会库存为8673吨，环比-1517吨（上周环比-502吨）。SHFE+LME交易所锡库存16158吨，环比-2098吨，其中SHFE-1728吨。 宏观冲击预计边际缓和 宏观面，根据CME数据，7月29日美联储会议预期维持不变概率70%，加息概率30%，加息概率较上周下滑。下周宏观环境整体承压，但利空冲击有望边际缓和。美联储加息预期在前期锡价回调中已有较充分消化，若无新增超预期数据或官员鹰派表态，宏观面对锡价的额外压制或将减弱。 展望 短期：基本面矿端持续偏紧；宏观面加息预期升温限制锡价高度，预计6月锡价偏震荡。 长期：全球锡供需仍存缺口，且供应链脆弱性不断冲击市场预期，持续看好锡价中枢上移。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、海外矿山供给释放超预期、宏观美联储降息不及预期风险、报告中的数据可能有滞后风险 内容目录 宏观&行业动态..........................................................................................................................................31.价格：宏观压制，锡价下跌......................................................................................................................32.库存：周内大幅去库................................................................................................................................43.供给：精炼锡开工率下滑..........................................................................................................................54.4月表需环比下滑....................................................................................................................................7附：终端景气度及年度供需平衡表...............................................................................................................7消费电子.............................................................................................................................................7半导体................................................................................................................................................7供需平衡表.........................................................................................................................................8风险提示...................................................................................................................................................8 图表目录 图表1：美联储降息概率（CME）...............................................................................................................3图表2：美联储降息点阵图........................................................................................................................3图表3：锡价走势.....................................................................................................................................4图表4：沪锡市场现货日度升贴水（元/吨）................................................................................................4图表5：国内锡精矿价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................4图表6：锡精矿加工费（元/吨）................................................................................................................4图表7：精炼锡成本（外购锡精矿）...........................................................................................................4图表8：锡锭社会库存（吨）.....................................................................................................................5图表9：SHFE+LME交易所锡库存（吨）....................................................................................................5图表10：国内锡精矿产量（吨）................................................................................................................5图表11：锡矿进口（实物吨）...................................................................................................................5图表12：锡矿进口-缅甸（实物吨）...........................................................................................................5图表13：锡矿进口-刚果金（实物吨）........................................................................................................5图表14：印尼交易所成交量（吨）.............................................................................................................6图表15：精炼锡产量（吨）......................................................................................................................6图表16：精炼锡开工率（%）...................................................................................................................6图表17：周度锡锭产量（吨）...................................................................................................................6图表18：锡表观消费（吨）......................................................................................................................7图表19：国内矿端供需缺口情况（金属吨）................................................................................................7图表20：全球智能手机出货，分季度.........................................................................................................7图表21：全球PC出货，分季度.................................................................................................................7图表22：半导体销售额Vs.锡价.....................................................................................................