有色周报：锡：宏观利空影响，锡价大幅回调

锡：宏观利空影响，锡价大幅回调 作者 宏观利空，锡价周内大幅调整 本周SMM: 1#锡价收于42.2万元/吨，环比-0.5%，SHFE锡价收于40.9万元/吨，环比-4%，LME锡收于52325美元/吨，环比-3%。沪锡现货贴水。SHFE锡价受到宏观因素影响明显，相对于上周高点大幅回调。 分析师廖浩祥SAC：S1070526040006邮箱：liaohaoxiang@cgws.com 下游维持刚需采购，去库节奏缓慢 矿端：原料延续偏紧格局，市场以刚需成交为主。缅甸持续推进矿端作业，印尼则推迟了对矿业商品征收特许权使用费及出口税费的计划。再生锡原料因回收困难而供应紧张，限制了再生锡产量。 分析师熊可为SAC：S1070525110001邮箱：xiongkewei@cgws.com 产业：需求端，下游虽畏高情绪浓厚，多维持刚需采购。 库存：本周，SMM国内锡锭社会库存为10598吨，环比-406吨。SHFE+LME交易所锡库存17381吨，环比-483吨，其中SHFE-68吨，LME-415吨。金三银四尾声，去库幅度缓慢。 展望 短期：矿端持续偏紧，传统金三银四接近尾声，目前超过40万元/吨的价格下，产业更多选择观望。后续空间是否能打开要看宏观层面是否有实质性利好，AI叙事更多是情绪层面的提振。宏观进入反复期，维持锡价高位宽幅震荡判断。 长期：全球锡供需仍存缺口，且供应链脆弱性不断冲击市场预期，持续看好锡价中枢上移。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、海外矿山供给释放超预期、宏观美联储降息不及预期风险、报告中的数据可能有滞后风险 内容目录 宏观&政策.................................................................................................................................................31.价格：锡价周内回调，现货贴水................................................................................................................32.库存：国内小幅去库................................................................................................................................43.供给：精炼锡周内产量下滑......................................................................................................................54.需求高增，3月供需缺口仍存....................................................................................................................6附：终端景气度跟踪...................................................................................................................................7消费电子.............................................................................................................................................7半导体................................................................................................................................................8新能源................................................................................................................................................8风险提示...................................................................................................................................................9 图表目录 图表1：美联储降息概率（CME）...............................................................................................................3图表2：美联储降息点阵图........................................................................................................................3图表3：锡价走势.....................................................................................................................................3图表4：沪锡市场现货日度升贴水（元/吨）................................................................................................3图表5：国内锡精矿价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................4图表6：锡精矿加工费（元/吨）................................................................................................................4图表7：精炼锡成本（外购锡精矿）...........................................................................................................4图表8：锡锭社会库存（吨）.....................................................................................................................4图表9：SHFE+LME交易所锡库存（吨）....................................................................................................4图表10：国内锡精矿产量（吨）................................................................................................................5图表11：锡矿进口（实物吨）...................................................................................................................5图表12：锡矿进口-缅甸（实物吨）...........................................................................................................5图表13：锡矿进口-刚果金（实物吨）........................................................................................................5图表14：印尼交易所成交量（吨）.............................................................................................................5图表15：精炼锡产量（吨）......................................................................................................................6图表16：精炼锡开工率（%）...................................................................................................................6图表17：周度锡锭产量（吨）...................................................................................................................6图表18：锡表观消费（吨）......................................................................................................................7图表19：国内矿端供需缺口情况（金属吨）................................................................................................7图表20：全球精炼锡供需平衡表................................................................................................................7图表21：全球智能手机出货，分季度.........................................................................................................7图表22：全球PC出货，分季度.................................................................................................................7图表23：半导体销售额Vs.锡价.............................................................