美国高端美妆市场分析及雅诗兰黛投资建议

RatingMarket-Perform Price Target Estee Lauder (EL): U.S. Prestige Beauty Model - Quantifyingstructural challenges As Estée Lauder’s growth in China has slowed and become more volatile, The Americas (EL’slargest reported segment) has become increasingly important for the company’s growth. Tobetter understand the U.S. prestige beauty market dynamics and their implications for EL, wedeveloped a granular, bottoms-up channel model. Close Date24 Jun 2026EL Close Price (USD)83.27Price Target (USD)82.00Upside/(Downside)(2)%52-Week Range121.64/66.22SPX7,357.49FYEJunDiv Yield1.7%Market Cap (USD) (M)29,454EV (USD) (M)35,628 Our methodology synthesizes multiple data sources, including company disclosures (e.g.,Ulta, Sephora), third-party market data (e.g., Euromonitor, Circana), and channel-level e-commerce datasets. This mosaic allows us to re-construct the U.S. prestige beauty marketwith granularity and strong predictive power. Notably, our model’s output shows a correlation(R2) of 91% with Circana’s Market Growth estimates and 85% with EL Americas reportedgrowth rates. We believe this framework enables investors to validate trends and assess the quality ofgrowth by decomposing it into key drivers, like channel mix, channel-level market growth,and market share within each channel. It also provides flexibility to adjust key assumptions toevaluate different scenarios. Our model is available for download on our website (link here): Industry Model | U.S. PrestigeMarket Model Investment Implications We rateEstee Lauder Market-Perform, with a PT of $82. After years of decline, EL hasreturned to growth, but structural challenges will prevent further acceleration. Their channelmix in the US will continue to weigh on growth prospects, as Department Stores continuetheir decline. We forecast 36% and 13% YoY EPS growth NTM and NTM+1, respectively, making usbearish vs. consensus on NTM+1 EPS by ~7%. We apply a 24.0x target multiple to derive ourtarget price. DETAILS Our model delineates the U.S. prestige beauty market into five key channels: 1. Specialty retail - Ulta2. Specialty retail - Sephora3. Department stores4. Pure-play online - Amazon5. Pure-play online - Brand.com We inform the following driving assumptions by sourcing channel level sales from company disclosures and third-party 1. Channel growth 2. Prestige mix within each channel 3. Online penetration within each channel 4. EL’s market share within each channel We then cross-check our estimates of the total prestige beauty market against Circana (NPD) data and aggregate EL salesagainst EL’s reported North America segment sales. We believe the model demonstrates strong explanatory power, as ourreconstructed total market growth and EL’s U.S. growth show high correlations with reported benchmarks (R2= 0.91 and 0.85respectively). Based on our estimates, in 2025 EL derives ~26% of its U.S. sales from department stores, versus ~14% for the broaderU.S. prestige beauty market. Conversely, Amazon accounts for ~16% of EL’s sales, compared to ~28% of market sales. EL’sBrand.com / DTC exposure is ~12%, broadly in line with the industry. This highlights a structural imbalance in EL’s channel mix, with overexposure to slower-growing channels and underexposure tofaster-growing ones, particularly Amazon. As a result, EL faces a structural disadvantage in capturing market-level growth. In addition to an unfavorable channel mix, EL is also losing market share across most channels. This may reflect shiftingconsumer preferences and points to potential weaknesses in brand equity and product portfolio competitiveness. APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Estee Lauder Cos Inc We value Estee Lauder using EPS of $3.43 (NTM+1) and a 24x P/E multiple (implying $82), cross-checked against EV/EBIT on$2,099 EBIT (NTM+1) at 18.2x (implying $89) and a DCF with 13% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth (implying $54), with valuationsensit