全球航空航天与国防：欧洲航空航天：在 Hormuz 重开中导航

European Aerospace: Navigating the reopening of Hormuz +4420 7676 6820adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.com fuelpricestoextremes, while theconflict also impactedtraffic inthe Middle East.Overall,trafficgrowthdeceleratedsignificantlyfromQ1'26 (+4%)toQ2'26(-2%).Mostairlinespostedmarginexpansion inQ1'26,butmarginsareexpectedtodeterioratefromQ2'26due to the high energy costs (~20% of revenue for a normal airline). +1 917 344 8430douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 7676 7044alex.irving@bernsteinsg.com fast.Demand forthe aftermarket was so strongbeforethe war thattraffic disruptions andhigh oil prices mighthave noimpactonfundamentals,ifthe war ends.Airlines wereburnt bythe post-Covid shortage of planes. Airbus & Boeing could not produce enough planes to flldemand, while traffic continued to grow, driving life extensions for older planes. Therefore,airlines and lessors have not delayed or canceled repairs, because they have wanted tooptimize their fleet ahead ofa potential recovery.All the aftermarketmetrics are supportive,despite the challenging environment: retirement rates are still low, the number of unusedplanes is down in May and June, and backlogs provide months of visibility. +44 20 7676 7342cyriaque.blanchet@bernsteinsg.com +33158 98 7452antoine.madre@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Q2'26 results should be very strong,again. Investors did not reward the beats inQ1'26becauseoftheuncertainenvironmentand concerns overwhat wasnext.But,if a sustainable deal is reached,the setupfor Q2'26should be better.We expect theaftermarkettrendstoremain strong,potentially leadingtoguidance upgrades for 2026,which shouldbe rewarded. In this context, we see value in thesector overall and expectvaluations togradually recover (European A&D on 14.8xEV/EBITDA vs.16.4xpre-war). James Brady+44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.con Safran remains ourtop pick.We expectaftermarket sales growthto accelerateagain inQ2'26 (after+32%in Q1'26).We see little rationalein thebearsnarrative onworkscopebeing at-risk. We expect workscope (volume of parts replaced during a shop visit) to remainoptimizethe engines'time in the shops. Ifthe environmentstabilizes, we believethe stockshouldrecovertoatleastwhereitwasbeforethewar (350,+10%) over exposure to widebody andthe Middle-East.Rolls-Royce's resilientbusinessmodel andexposureto othersegments (defense,powersystems)drovea justifiedoutperformanceduringthe war.WeexpectH1'26 resultstobestrong.But,we seemoreupside inSafranand MTU. MTuAero is the highest-betaplayontherecovery,as commercialaerospace accounts for90% of profits and the cheap valuation supports the stock in the up days. We expect MTU todo well in the short-term, if the environment continues to improve. And we still believe thatthe valuation is overly discounted, for a business that is not broken, in the long-term. But,time.Afterthe short-term recovery,until these challenges are solved,we expectthe marketto favor Safran, which is viewed as a cleaner story. EXHIBIT2:... Becausetheirenginefleettendstobemore recent TRAFFICIMPACTThe number of flights is slightly up (+0.4%) YTD.That is the key metric for the aftermarket, as it drives demand for spare parts and repairs (number offlights,rather than number of hours flown,given the pressure on the engines duringtake off).The number of flights is up +0.4% YTD. It is up in all regions except North America (flat) and Middle East (-24%). Excluding theMiddle-East impact, the number of flights would be up. But, traffic (excluding the Middle East) growth decelerated significantlyfrom Q126 (+4%) to flattish in Q2'26, which impacted airlines globally. Surprisingly,the number of planes parked is comingdown. Widebodymost impacted.Widebodyflights areparticularlyexposedtotheMiddle Eastandhavebeenmostimpacted.Widebody flights are down -2.5% YTD, while narrowbody flights are up +0.9%. In theory, Rolls-Royce should be most impacted(pure-play on widebody) but the young age of theirfleet is protecting the business. Traffic is still expected to growfor2026.Airlines'schedules point to a +2.8% growth in number of flights in 2026 overall.Slowing down from+3.7% in Q1'26but remaining positive across allquarters.The schedules indicate+3.3% growth innarrowbody, and -2.0% in widebody. We believe this is largely driven by flight from and to the Middle East. But, in fact, weexpect widebody flights outside the Middle East to be more resilient as legacyairlines tend to beless impacted by the high oilprice on long hauls (more profitable, lower share of fixed costs). Legacyengines most impacted.Across our coverage, Rolls-Royce's engines are least impacted,becauseof their youngerage profile. Trent XWB and Trent1oo0 are both still seeing positive growth in number of flights. For MTU and Safran, the legacyengines are most impacted,as theyareless fuel-efficient.V2500 and CFM56 cycles are down-9% and-6%,respectively.Theyaccountformost of the companies'profits in the aftermarket. YTDNumberofFlightsGrowthbyAircraftClass