航空航天与国防：在巴黎应提出哪些问题？（管理层问题库）

Aerospace & Defense: What to ask in Paris? (ManagementQuestion Bank) Ahead of the Paris Air Show, starting on Monday, June 16th, we provide a list of key themesand questions to ask management teams. Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8430douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.com The simple Air Show trade is long dead.Twenty years ago, buying Airbus and Boeingahead of the air show was a positive trade. It is not true anymore (see, “Global Aerospace &Defense: Paris Air Show trade? What history says and the industry issues for Le Bourget)”).But large orders could still be announced during the event, supporting share prices. Airbushas historically announced more orders than Boeing at the Paris Air Show. We expect it tobe the case in 2025 too, especially following the recent pre-Air Show orders at Boeing.There could also be a large Chinese order for Airbus (see our June 4threport -Airbus:Potential major China order; Deliveries still lagging as we head toward Le Bourget). Adrien Rabier+44 20 7676 6820adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales James Brady+44 207 762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Original equipment vs. aftermarket.We are bullish on both OE and aftermarket stocks.Boeing and Airbus production will not be sufficient to satisfy both fleet growth andreplacement demand (see our June 10threport -Commercial Aircraft: OE, aftermarket -Why both are set to grow). We see both companies benefiting from coming rate increasesand full backlogs. We preferBoeing, as we expect positive progress on the 737MAX and787 ramps to support stock performance in the short-term (see our June 2ndreport -Boeing: Best Idea in Aerospace & Defense presentation; Plus, commentary by CEO KellyOrtberg). The outlook forAirbusis strong too. The company may have large orders at the airshow. But with the A320 sold out through 2032 (and not much earlier for the A350), whatmatters is delivery outlook. We expect the LEAP engine shortage to continue in Q2’25, withpotential additional pressure from GTF deliveries due to the recent strike at RTX. The targetof 820 deliveries in 2025 could have risk. Airbus Commercial CEO Scherer said last weekthat he was cautiously hopeful. Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com We see no reason to close the aftermarket trade.We expect Q2’25 numbers tobe strong again, and the narrative at the air show to be supportive. Life extensions forlegacy programs continue. The slow start to deliveries in 2025 has the perverse effectof supporting highly profitable aftermarket sales. We expect positive messaging from allthe aftermarket players involved - GE, Howmet, MTU, Rolls-Royce, RTX, Safran… We alsoexpect the narrative on tariffs to soften.GEandHowmetremain our favorite ways to getexposure. GE delayed its investor update, previously planned for the air show, to the endof June, following the accident in India. We would not be surprised to see 2028 targetsupgraded, which would also benefitSafran. Despite strong aftermarket trends, we aremore cautious onMTU.We expect the company to discuss the impact of the machinistsstrike at RTX, which blocked four weeks of production, and the ongoing issues with the GTFengine. Defense typically generates fewer headlines.We still expect the environment to besupportive, with governments and companies pushing for increased defense spending inEurope. We may hear some commentary about the current Israel-Iran conflict, although it isvery early to truly understand the implications. For the exclusive use of JATIN CHAWLA at TVF CAPITAL ADVISORS PTE LTD on 16-Jun-2025 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Airbus, Boeing, Dassault Aviation, GE, Howmet, Leonardo and MTUOutperform. We rate Rolls-Royce, RTX, Safran and ThalesMarket-Perform. DETAILS Ahead of the Paris Air Show, starting on Monday, June 16th, we provide a list of key themes and questions to ask managementteams. US AEROSPACE & DEFENSE BOEING •737MAX production ramp is progressing. Production for the 737MAX is meant to have recovered near 38/month -can you update on the production targets and the timeline? What milestones should we watch for, such as FAA approval?What makes you comfortable that the supply chain is in a position to deliver on the increasing rates? Where do you stand oninventoried parts, especially engines? What are the bottlenecks to achieving higher production rates in six-month intervals?Where do 737-7 and 737-10 certifications stand? •787 ramp is stabilizing.What are the targets for the 787 production going forward? Where do you stand on the issues yourecently faced (heat exchanger and quality improvement requirements)? When do you expect to reach 7/month? What is thetiming to move to 10/month? What is the situation for interiors? Will the gap between production and deliveries close oncethe interiors issues are resolved? •Tariffs have become less of a focus.Can you update the situation regarding tariffs? Where do China deliveries stand?China orders? How is your dialog with