审视航空航天与国防 政府服务领域所有权：长期投资者 对冲基金在航空航天与国防及政府服务领域的持仓情况

Restricted - External U.S. Aerospace & DefenceNEUTRALU.S. Aerospace & DefenseDavid Strauss+1 212 526 5580david.strauss@barclays.comBCI, USJoshua Korn+1 212 526 3283joshua.korn@barclays.comBCI, USSrividya Vinjamuri+1 212 526 7536srividya.vinjamuri@barclays.comBCI, USBenjamin Tomick+1 212 526 8926benjamin.tomick@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 1. Long-Only Ownership % of Total A&D Stock OwnershipFIGURE 3. Stock Ownership by Investor TypeLong OnlyHedge FundSource: Bloomberg. 'Other' primarily includes banks, insurance companies, government, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds.A&D OwnershipWe have analyzed public ownership filings in order to determine investor interest across ourcoverage universe as of March 31. Overall for aerospace and defense, we estimate long-onlyownership trended lower, while hedge fund ownership remained relatively flat in Q1 as apercentage of total stock ownership.Among our A&D coverage, we estimate the aero stocks are held by a higher proportion of long-only investors (35%) than defense investors (29%). We estimate that the largest hedge fundownership (10%) is also more weighted towards aerospace. Meanwhile, defense stocks have ahigher index fund ownership share (45%), implying potential upside if active investors turnmore positive. Our data represents the latest company filings, with ownership data mostly as of3/31/2025. FIGURE 2. Hedge Fund Ownership % of Total A&D Stock Ownership3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24Jun-24Sep-24Dec-24Mar-25Source: Bloomberg and Barclays Research29%31%5%8%45%41%21%20%DefenseServicesIndexOther 2 FIGURE 5. Long-Only Ownership % of Total A&D Stock OwnershipFIGURE 6. Hedge Fund Ownership % of Total A&D Stock Ownership39%29%31%DefenseServicesQ1 202510%4%6%10%5%8%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%AerospaceDefenseServicesQ1 2020Q1 2025Source: Bloomberg and Barclays ResearchCompared to before the pandemic, we estimate long-only investors now own a smallerproportion of aero, defense, and services. Hedge funds own a larger share of defense andservices, and an equal share of aero.If investors were to hold market-weighted portfolios with no active positions, we would expecttheir ownership share of each stock to be roughly equal to their ownership share across all ofA&D. We therefore calculate the relative over / (under)exposure of each fund type to individualstocks as follows:𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒=%𝑜𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑜𝑓𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘%𝑜𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑜𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙𝐴&𝐷𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑠−1For example, we estimate long-only investors hold ~38% of Boeing’s stock. This is above the~34% average ownership of our A&D coverage universe by long-only investors. We thereforeestimate that long-only investors are ~11% overexposed to BA ((~38/ ~34) - 1). 3 FIGURE 8. Long-Only Ownership by StrategySource: Bloomberg and Barclays Research. Excludes holders without an explicit growth or value strategy.Among our coverage, we estimate long-only investors are most overexposed to BBD/TDG/ATI/CACI/BWXT, while most underexposed to LMT/LDOS/HII/GD/WWD (excluding SPR/TGI because ofpending acquisitions).FIGURE 7. Long-Only Fund Over / (Under) Exposure-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%BBDTDGATIHWMBAHEIGEHXLRTXTXTWWDSPRTGIBWXTNOCLHXGDHIILMTCACISAICBAHLDOSLong Only Over (Under) ExposureAerospaceDefenseServicesSource: Bloomberg and Barclays ResearchBreaking down long-only investors by strategy, we estimate GD/SAIC/LDOS/RTX/LHX are mostheavily owned by investors with a value focus while BBD/TDG/HWM/ATI/HEI are more owned bygrowth investors.Meanwhile, hedge fund investors appear most overexposed to ATI/WWD/BAH/SAIC and mostunderexposed to BBD/RTX/GD/LHX.4 Source: Bloomberg and Barclays ResearchFIGURE 13. Relative Over / (Under) Exposure by Individual Stock in4Q24 - DefenseHIILMT-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%-60%-50%-40%-30%Hedge FundsLong-OnlyUnderexposedOverexposedUnderexposedSource: Bloomberg and Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg and Barclays Research29 May 2025 Source: Bloomberg and Barclays Research29 May 2025 Source: Bloomberg and Barclays Research Short InterestAcross our coverage, aero and defense short interest has remained relatively steady, whileservices short interest is up significantly, peaking at the beginning of April 2025.FIGURE 16. Short Interest % of Float by Industry Sub-GroupSource: Bloomberg and Barclays ResearchShort interest as a percentage of float is highest for TGI and SPR (both pending acquisitions).Over the past three months, short interest has increased the most for CACI/TXT/HWM whiledecreasing most for BAH (ex SPR/TGI).FIGURE 17. A&D Short Interest (% of Float)0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%TGISPRCACISAICBAHSource: Bloomberg and Barclays Research HXLHIIHEIHWMTXTATILDOSBATDGBWXTLHXWWDNOCBBDGEGD LMT FIGURE 18. 3-Month Change in Short Interest % of Float (bps)Source: Bloomberg and Barclays ResearchCombining short interest and hedge fund relative ownership exposure, we estimate hedgefunds are positioned most positively on GE/WWD/ATI, as short interest as a