航空航天与国防领域须知：空客供应链、A220加长型、航班情况

EUROPE | Aerospace & Defense Electronics What You Need to Know in A&D — Airbus SupplyChain, A220 Stretch, Flights Daily number of commercial flights as trackedby FlightRadar24 In this document, we present the key news impacting the European A&D sector.Today, we explore: Airbus comments on supply chain & buybacks ahead ofParis Airshow, Airbus consider simpler A220 stretch, and last week's flights. Airbus (Buy): Comments on supply chain & buybacks ahead of Paris Airshow Source: FlightRadar24, Jefferies Airbus management hosted a press event ahead of the Paris Airshow on Friday. Bloombergreported on comments made by Airbus Commercial CEO Christian Scherer, pointing to a"meaningful decline" in missing parts as the supply chain improved, however, group CEO GuillaumeFaury remained cautious, stating that increasing output has become "slightly more difficult",although it was not specified in the article whether this referred to the 2025 deliveries guidance of820 which was reiterated or mid-term production targets such as rate 75/mo on the A320 in 2027.Lastly, CFO Thomas Toepfer stated that given current market volatility, the group would be lessinclined to do buybacks. Exhibit 2 - … representing 115% of 2019 levelsthat week, vs. 118% in MayDaily number of commercial flights as tracked by FlightRadar24 We believe some expectations for buyback announcements started to build up ahead of the show andthe business update planned for Wednesday. While we assume no changes to the mid-term productiontargets, comments on the pace of improvement of the supply chain will be key. Airbus's messaging onthis topic seems to be contradictory, pointing to both meaningful improvements, enabling the group tonow stand around rate 60/mo on the A320, but also some caution when it comes to reiterating the 2035delivery guide or commenting on the group's planned ramp. Source: FlightRadar24, Jefferies Airbus (Buy): Simpler A220 stretch being considered by Airbus Bloomberg reports this morning that Airbus is considering a simpler stretch of the A220, still dubbedA220-500 with no changes to the wing nor engines. This option, vs prior plans including a wingredesign would be quicker and less expensive to develop, but reportedly not allow coast-to-coastoperations in the US. Airbus management often stated the A220-500 was a matter of "when not if" but may face more pressureon the launch given that despite full A320 backlogs, the A220 order momentum has been limited in 2024(-9 net orders) after a solid 2023 (141). We note from press reports ahead of the Airshow that severalsignificant A220 orders could be signed included 100 for AirAsia. Civil Aero: FR24 flights were stable wow at 139k flights/day, 15% above 2019 FlightRadar24 data shows last week's commercial flights were stable wow to 139.5k flights/day,15% above 2019 levels, -1.8ppt wow. Flight data thus shows a slight pullback. June to date nowstands 17% vs 2019, slightly below May which stood 18% above 2019, (April represented therecovery record at 21% above 2019). All in all, concerns over traffic evolution amid a weakeningmacroeconomic backdrop, do have not led to significant changes in flights performance, but somesoftness is a bit more noticeable. We will continue to monitor the evolution in flights which remainscritical for aftermarket plays includingRolls-Royce (Buy),Safran (Buy)andMTU Aero (Buy). Unless specified, no company has commented on the press reports mentioned. Chloe Lemarie, CFA * | Equity Analyst+33 1 8665 6326 | clemarie@jefferies.comBen Brown ^ | Equity Associate+44 (0) 20 7548 5070 | ben.brown@jefferies.com Company Valuation/Risks Airbus Group NV Valuation: SOTP-based. Risks include ramp-up constraints and airline bankruptcies. MTU Aero Engines AG Valuation: SOTP-based. Risks: ramp-up constraints and strong retirement waves lowering aftermarket demand. Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc Valuation: we apply a mix of SOTP and FCF yield as due to the ongoing balance sheet challenges, Rolls-Royce has been primarily driven by expectationson FCF. Upside risks: acceleration in international traffic recovery, faster mix recovery in Civil. Downside risks: persistent weakness in air traffic, pushto restore the balance sheet with another rights issue. Safran Group Valuation: SOTP-based. Upside risks: significant pick-up of air traffic increasing aftermarket demand; downside risks: cost inflation, further air trafficdisruptions. Analyst Certification: I, Chloe Lemarie, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. I, Ben Brown, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies)