EY趋势2026及未来：重塑的未来

new futures in a world of change Contents extreme weather events and supply chain disruption, leadersare operating in a world that is constantly transforming. Thisis an environment of abrupt shocks, accelerating change,sudden reversals, and unexpected knock-on impacts. We callit a NAVI world, in which change is increasingly nonlinear, trends most timely and relevant across a wide spectrum ofsectors and geographies. They are not an exhaustive list;instead they provide a starting point and springboard for and different futures becomesa true leadership advantage.It enables leaders to challengeassumptions, explore emergingscenarios, and lead and inspireothers to find a future path —free from the constraints of the forces driving them are. A thread runs through allof them: the human element. Technology reshapes whatorganizations can achieve. But people determine whetherthat potential is realized. The leaders who thrive will bethose who look beyond near-term cost savings from AIto invest in human capability, build trust deliberately, for leaders. First, its profound uncertainty requiresorganizations to reimagine and prepare for multipleversions of the future. To enable this, this report exploreseight scenario-based megatrends that are particularlyrelevant for navigating the terrain ahead — from howorganizations operate and how humans and machinescollaborate, to how we measure value, develop talent, leadership, restructure their organizations, develop theirpeople, deploy technology, and engage with the world — willcompound over the next decade. This report doesn’t providea single answer. But it will give you better questions, sharperframeworks, and the confidence to act decisively in a worldthat rewards those who move with purpose. are no longer fit for purpose. Organizations need to rethinkassumptions and transform how they approach strategicplanning, operating and business model innovation, talentmodels, and risk management. Navigating this environmentdemands a different kind of leadership, one grounded in Will you shape the future, or be shaped by it? Welcome tothe NAVI world How to navigate the NAVI world unforeseen knock-on impacts — if the last few years have felt like a roller-coaster ride, in which a succession of surpriseshas shaken your business, you’re not alone. Longitudinal data from EY-Parthenon Geostrategy in Practice shows thatin 2021 just 1% of global executives were surprised by political risk events or their impacts “most or all of the time”;disasters. The accelerated pace of change is also visible in geopolitics. “The geopolitical world is fundamentallydifferent from a few years ago,” says Oliver Jones, EY-Parthenon Global Geostrategy Leader. “The speed of change hasincreased dramatically. Trade liberalization used to take a decade to negotiate and implement. Today, new tariffs can be “Politics are realigning and growing more polarized, increasing the likelihood of significant swings in policy fromone election to the next,” says Catherine Friday, EY Global Government and Infrastructure Industry Leader. Youngergenerations have sped up consumer trends and fashion cycles, as social media and supply chain innovations havefueled the rise of microtrends that can last weeks, instead of years. change, technological innovation, demographic shifts, and the rising influence of non-state actors.These are examples of a new operating environment. We call this theNAVI worldafter the four characteristics that distinguish it from the pre-pandemic era. This is a world in which change is increasingly nonlinear, accelerated, volatileand interconnected.Finally, complex relationships between the forces of disruption mean change is increasinglyinterconnected. Shocks can trigger cascades of downstream impacts, often culminating in unexpected outcomes. Trade policy shifts, forexample, can ripple through supply chains, redirect capital flows, reshape energy investment and alter migrationpatterns — often simultaneously and in ways that compound one another. tipping points, in which technologies suddenly transition from gradual improvement to huge advances, catchingcompanies by surprise. Today, these S-curves are steeper — bringing more frequent tipping points. Even typicallyslow-moving demographic shifts are delivering tipping points, as birth rates drop off rapidly in China and elsewhere.Climate change is becoming increasingly nonlinear; scientists predict we will cross as many as 25 tipping points in the NonlinearAccelerated VolatileInterconnectedWe call this the NAVI world.Welcome to the NAVI world Imposing structure on the NAVI world Navigating the NAVI world requires a way to separate the signal from the noise, while planning for multiple potentialfutures. This is where the EY Futures Reimagined framework comes into play (see figure 1).The primary forces —technology,demographics, sustainabilityandgeopolitics— are root causes of change that are reimagines how organizations operate, and capitalis