2026未来前瞻：或将影响社会的三大科技趋势研究报告

Three Science andTechnology Trends ThatCould Affect Society April 2026GAO-26-108079 Table of Contents 131021323536 ForewordNeural Implants for Human AugmentationGeneral Purpose RoboticsRemediation of Orbital DebrisEndnotesGAO Contact and Staff AcknowledgmentsAdditional information Cover: Illustrated depiction of examples of orbital debris mitigation, general robotics, and neural implant technology. Source: GAO. | GAO-26-108079 This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. The publishedproduct may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from GAO. However,because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder maybe necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately. Foreword Science and technology (S&T) are constantlyevolving, and there is a need for analysisof emerging trends to help prepare us forthe benefits and disruptions that they maybring. To address this need, we developed a reportseries focused on technologies that may developsignificantly over the next 10 years. Our goal is toprovide foresight into developing technologies thatcould have significant impacts on Americans. Weare in an ideal position to inform Congress aboutS&T to assist them in their role in oversight, but alsoin evaluating technology through our technologyassessment reports. Sterling Thomas, PhDGAO’s Chief Scientist For this second annual edition of our S&T trends report, weidentified and monitored developments in science, technology,and engineering that may grow over time as the United Statescontinues to innovate. As there are many possible future trends,we did not take an exhaustive approach but identified threesignificant technologies we think are demonstrating progression.Periodically, we plan to add to this body of work with newtechnologies that show signs of maturing and appear to bebenefiting from improving market conditions. Many methods exist to identify emerging technologies, butmost do not work well for our ten-year time horizon. Commonmethods that appear in popular literature use frequency analysisto identify trending terms. These methods can be valuable fortechnologies that are nearing maturity but are less effective fortechnologies that are 10 years out from it. Our specific method leverages the expertise of GAO scientistsand engineers to identify developing technologies that maynot yet have gained popular attention but show significantacceleration in maturity. To guide our approach to horizonscanning and evaluating the technologies for this work, we followed the STEER framework. For each of the three technologies weaddress key elements derived from thesocial impacts,technology drivers,environment impacts,economic drivers, and theregulatory landscape. in another. For example, orbital debris mitigationsystems, robotics, and neural implants all depend onadvances in control algorithms, sensors, materialsscience, and energy storage. Additionally, progress inartificial intelligence (AI) informs development acrossall three fields, allowing systems to accomplish tasksin unpredictable environments, such as navigating adisaster area, interpreting brain activity in real time,or maneuvering through a congested orbit. Each of these elements plays an important rolein maturing a technology and creating marketconditions that can bring an innovation to theAmerican public. Innovations do not live in a vacuum,so societal, environmental, regulatory, and otherfactors may also be useful to consider and evaluatefor opportunities to accelerate innovation. One important form of technological innovation is themove from specialized use in specific applicationsto general use across a broader range of tasks.The three technologies we selected for this year’sreport—neural implants for human augmentation,general purpose robotics, and orbital debrismitigation systems—are examples of such innovation.For example, neural implants have been developedto treat specific conditions, and researchers areexploring how to move beyond that to developimplants that augment human capabilities. Similarly,the field of robotics has expanded from dedicatedindustrial machines performing repetitive tasks toversatile systems capable of adapting to a wide rangeof environments. Orbital debris mitigation systemslikewise are progressing from technology developedto mitigate a small number of large objects to newersystems that could potentially mitigate much smallerobjects, which are significantly more numerous.As these transitions from specialized to broaderapplications continue, considering regulatoryapproaches that balance the resulting applicationswith public safety will be important for policymakers. To conduct this work, we relied on a review ofscientific literature from academic journalsand position papers and held semi-structuredinterviews with 11 experts across the three identifiedtechnologies. The experts w