2026中国粮食未来磋商文件：中国粮食安全战略如何重塑全球农产品供应链

Consultation paper: how China’sfood-security strategy could Executive China is poised to reshape global agriculturalcommodity supply chains as it accelerates 01Food security has become a strategic priority for Chinese leadership, central to economicstability and national security. 02Early signals suggest Beijing is applying the same industrial playbook that is deliveringglobal leadership in solar and EVs to food and agriculture – aligning policy, capitaland technology. 03By 2030, Chinese import demand will have peaked and begun to fall, especially for feedand animal protein. Demand for imported soya beans is projected to fall by 25%. 04Long term, China’s prioritisation of biomanufacturing and alternative protein technologiesis set to transform domestic markets and reshape global food production. 05Producers who adapt early – diversifying markets, upgrading productivity, raising deforestationand traceability standards – are best placed to succeed in this changing landscape. 450m That same capacity has enabled China toestablish global leadership in several This consultation papersynthesises the available evidenceinto a central hypothesis: thatChina has begun to apply to foodand agriculture some of the samesystem-level tools it has previouslyused in sectors such as energyand transport. It considers whatthat could mean for domestic technologies.Today, China is the world’slargest producer of renewable electricity andthe dominant manufacturer of solar panels,wind turbines, and electric vehicles (EVs).4These sectors evolved through deliberatepolicy choices, long-term investment and a people China population growth25x increase in China’s per capita incomes However, the economic and industrialmodel that enabled this success alsogenerated new dependencies, most China is now finding these dependencies difficult to tolerate.For Chinese leadership, food security is no longer framed solely as amatter of nutritional sufficiency, but as centralto economic stability and national security. Thisshift is visible across China’s coreplanning architecture: the 14th Five-Year Plan(2021-2025)9was the first to place foodsecurity alongside energy and finance in adedicated economic security section. The 15thFive-Year Plan (2026-2030)10builds on this,emphasising food security, agriculturalmodernisation, and diversified food supply predominantly plant-based foods towardshighly processed and animal-based foods.Domestic agriculture has struggled to keeppace with the resulting demand for resource-intensive proteins.5This has left China Over the past four decades, China hasundergone one of the most rapid and The risk embedded in this dependence isamplified by concentrated supply chains. far-reaching economic transformations in modern history.Sustained industrialexpansion and targeted growth of high-valuesectors have lifted hundreds of millions ofpeople out of poverty, with per capita incomesincreasing by a factor of 25 since 1978.1Overthe same period, China’s population has grown Brazil alone provides more than 60% of China’s soya bean imports and around40% of its beef, the United States suppliesa further 30% of soya bean imports, andNew Zealand accounts for 40% of dairyimports.7Recent years have demonstratedhow quickly these vulnerabilities canmaterialise: climate volatility, water scarcity In response, China has begun to apply thesame system-level approach to food andagriculture that it once deployed in playbook operates through five mutuallyreinforcing mechanisms: strategic andcoordinated vision, cascading from centralgovernment to provinces, state enterprisesand financial institutions; a denseentrepreneurial environment of competingfirms, university partnerships and regionalclusters; financial support through state banks,subsidies and sustained R&D funding; policyand regulatory support; and induced demand,created through procurement requirementsand usage standards to activate markets ahead of organic consumer uptake. efficiencies and domestic output. As a result,China is projected to become a net exporterof several animal protein categories – poultry,dairy, eggs and aquatic products – a reversal Early signals indicate that China hasentered “Year 0” of food system Producer countries will be the first tofeel the effects of China’s transition. transformation.New and emerging government policies centre food security,with a central pillar in reshaping proteinsupply through technological innovation,including alternative protein pathways.Domestic innovation clusters aroundalternative proteins, fermentation-derivedingredients and agricultural biotechnologyare emerging.11State-aligned capital is flowinginto infrastructure, and policy and regulationsare signalling coordinated action, notably policymakers the confidence to raise importstandards and demand deforestation andconversion free (DCF) commodities, aligningwith jurisdictions like the EU. Producerswho embrace the change by upgradingproductivity on existing l