美国固定收益市场外国资金流入：四月对美国债券需求激增

Foreign Flows in U.S. Fixed Income Demand for U.S. bonds surges in April CITI'S TAKE Daniel SoridAC+1-212-723-1992daniel.sorid@citi.com Corporates –Foreign demand for U.S. corporate bonds surged in April,recovering from a slowdown in March to reach its highest level in more thantwo years. This continues a trend of strong overseas interest, with high-frequency indicators suggesting demand will remain strong in May.USTs – Mathew JacobAC+1-212-816-1547mathew.jacob@citi.com Foreign demand for USTs stayed elevated in April as foreign holdings oflong-term USTs increased by $43bn on a valuation adjusted basis, whiletheir T-bill holdings decreased slightly by $14bn.Agency MBS –Foreigninvestors increased MBS holdings by $25bn in April. The UK added $14bn ofagency bonds, followed by Japan, Luxembourg and the Cayman Islands,each adding around $5bn. Canada reduced their agency bond holdings by$6bn, while China increased agency bond holdings by $0.4bn. More timely Raghav DatlaAC+1-212-723-4813raghavendra.varma.datla@citi.com Jason WilliamsAC+1-212-723-1837jason1.williams@citi.com Eugene BelostotskyAC+1-212-816-8432eugene.belostotsky@citi.com Wei GuanAC+1-212-723-2682wei.guan@citi.com With thanks toVictor AttahSusan Wang See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. US Credit: April foreign demand surges afterForeign Flows in U.S. Fixed Income Foreign demand for U.S.-issuer corporate bonds surged in April to the highest levelsince March 2024, according to our value-adjusted estimate of flows. This uptickfollows a temporary dip in March, when geopolitical risk in the Middle East causedoverseas investors to absorb a smaller share of net supply than their historicalaverage. Adjusting official holdings data to isolate flows, we estimate that overseas Daniel Soriddaniel.sorid@citi.com Mathew Jacobmathew.jacob@citi.com So far this year, foreign investors have absorbed approximately 45% of theestimated $364 billion in net U.S. corporate bond supply (Figure 2). Thisabsorption rate is consistent with historical trends for the January-April period, Source: Citi Research, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, LSEG Yieldbook Source: Citi Research, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, LSEG Yieldbook Looking beyond the latest official data, early indicators suggest that foreigndemand in May will remain strong. Taiwanese foreign bond ETFs (Figure 3) andweekly net foreign purchases through dealer affiliates (Figure 4) both showedinflows for the month at levels close to the historical average. Our previous researchindicates that non-U.S. investment inflows typically strengthen when U.S.Investment Grade (IG) bond net supply increases and spreads tighten. Given U.S. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg Estimated country attributions Regional attributions for flows can be imprecise because a large portion of holdingsare assigned to the country where the bonds are held in custody, rather than wherethe ultimate owner is based. Further, the valuation adjustment we apply does notcapture country-by-country variation in maturity and currency composition of US-issuer corporate paper, instead adjusting based on the aggregate maturity andcurrency composition across all countries. For Taiwan, we use a separate A note on methodology.Raw data reported by the Treasury shows the marketvalue of foreign holdings of US issuer corporate bonds saw a $52.8bn increase on amonth-to-month basis in April (Figure 8), but this value change reflects multipledrivers: actual net purchases or sales by foreign investors, changes in interest ratesthat affect bond prices, and exchange rate movements that alter the dollar value of First, we subtract the $3.8bn gain in market value from rising US corporate interestrates. Dollar-denominated bonds, representing 83.12% of total holdings, increased0.1% in value as slightly lower rates pushed bond prices higher. Second, we addback the $7.4bn loss in market value from exchange rate and foreign interest rate After adjusting for these valuation effects — which netted to a $3.6bn decrease inthe value of reported holdings — the unexplained portion of the increaserepresents estimated net inflows of $56.5bn in foreign purchases during April.Note that we exclude Irish holdings (due to their correlation with offshore cash Starting in 2023, the US Treasury Department began reporting its own estimate ofnet purchases and sales derived from valuation adjustments provided in formssubmitted to the government by asset owners. For April, this Treasury-reported USTs: Extending Duration? Data on foreign holdings of USTs (TIC) showed that demand for long-term USTsstayed elevated in April after picking up in March. Overall, foreign holdings of long-term USTs increased by $42.7bn on a value-adjusted basis (Figure 9). The increasewas mainly driven by foreign private investors, whose long-t