日本半导体设备更新盈利预测（2026年6月）

Japan Semiconductor EquipmentUpdating earnings forecasts (June 2026) CITI'S TAKE Masahiro ShibanoAC+81-3-6776-4641masahiro.shibano@citi.com We have updated our WFE assumptions to a base case of $139bn (+27%YoY) in 2026, $176bn (+26%) in 2027, and $214bn (+22%) in 2028, and a bullcase of $147bn (+34%), $196bn (+33%), and $254bn (+30%), reflecting theaggressive investment stance of logic/foundry and memory companies (seethis report). Japanese equipment makers indicated at the start of the FYthat they expect growth of 15%-20% YoY in CY26, and the overall trendappears positive, including in China. Based on this, we raise our forecastsand target prices for Tokyo Electron, Lasertec, and Screen Holdings. Japanese firms’ WFE assumptions look conservative— At their April-May resultsannouncements, Japanese firms issued WFE assumptions that were conservativerelative to those of US equipment makers and to stock market expectations at thattime. For example, TEL indicated on April 30 that it expected WFE to grow 20%+ YoYin CY26, while Screen projected growth of c15%-20% on May 13. Based on recentnewsflow, however, demand from logic/foundry and memory makers is generallygrowing, and Chinese customers also appear to have adopted a more proactive Rising price hike momentum— Our understanding is that price hike momentumamong Japanese front-end equipment makers originated with TEL. TEL’s grossmargin improved from 40% in FY3/16 to 47% in FY3/25 but has stalled owing toincreased upfront investment, and the OPM fell to 21% in FY3/26 Q3. This mayexplain why we sense the firm has made improving margins a greater priority sincearound March, and on April 30 CEO Toshiki Kawai expressed a desire to raise theGPM by 5ppt over the next two years. Equipment makers appear confident that Investment opinion— Among front-end equipment stocks, we prefer TEL for itsgood short-term earnings visibility and aggressive stance on price increases. Screenmay attract more interest toward 2026 H2, but we think Q1 earnings will be relativelyweak, so it is unlikely to rise up preference rankings in the near term. For Lasertec,we are concerned about guidance risk at results in early August, but concern may be Tokyo Electron (8035) We forecast Q1 (Apr-Jun) OP of just over ¥220bn (VA consensus: ¥209.5bn) andtherefore see potential for an upward revision to H1 OP guidance of ¥431bn whenQ1 results are announced at the end of July. However, there is no track record of H1guidance revisions as TEL only started to issue half-year guidance this year. We forecast OP of ¥1.04tn in FY3/27 (VA consensus: ¥935.4bn), ¥1.26tn in FY3/28(¥1.19bn), and ¥1.5tn in FY3/29 (¥1.35bn). We have increased our estimates toreflect an improved outlook for WFE demand through CY2028. As of June 22, theVA consensus estimates for FY3/27 Q4 (Jan-Mar 2027) were sales of ¥870bn andOP of ¥265bn (OPM: 30%). If the ASP of new products is successfully increased by5%, we estimate the OPM would rise by 3ppt (simple calculation not taking into We raise our target price from ¥53,000 (FY3/27E PER of 30x) to ¥89,000 (FY3/29EPER of 35x) to reflect upward revisions to our earnings estimates, a change to ourvaluation base year, and an increase to our target PER multiple. As TEL has a highmarket share and its sales tend to track overall WFE relatively closely, we believeattention is now focused on CY28 (largely the same as FY3/29). Also, we raise ourtarget PER from 30x to 35x, in line with the multiple in 2024 H1, because we now Lasertec (6920) We forecast FY6/26 Q4 (April-June) orders of ¥90bn-¥100bn and OP of c¥29bn.We expect Lasertec to announce FY6/27 guidance with FY6/26 results, which arescheduled in early August. We forecast FY6/27 orders of ¥360bn, although weexpect initial guidance of ¥280bn-¥360bn (VA consensus: ¥327.9bn). We forecastOP of ¥107bn in FY6/26, ¥150bn in FY6/27, and ¥197bn in FY6/28. We haveincreased our estimates to reflect an improved outlook for WFE through CY2028. We raise our target price from ¥43,000 (FY6/27E PER of 35x) to ¥57,000 (FY6/28EPER of 35x) to reflect revisions to our earnings estimates and a change to our Screen Holdings (7735) Screen forecasts FY3/27 H1 OP of ¥56bn and has explained that it expects OP toincrease modestly QoQ in July-September. We believe guidance assumes an April-June/July-September OP split of ¥27bn/¥29bn; however, the Apr-Jun forecastappears to include a Chinese order that was delayed from FY3/26. Considering thepossibility that the delayed Chinese order is included in April-June OP, our forecastrange is broad, at ¥22bn-¥28bn. We forecast OP of ¥155 in FY3/27 (guidance: We raise our target price from ¥12,000 (FY3/27E PER of 20x) to ¥18,000 (FY3/28EPER of 25x). Given investor expectations that the WFE market will continue toexpand for several years, we push out our valuation base year to FY3/28 and raiseour target PER to 25x, in line with the previous peak (2024 H1). If April-June results may see an opportunity to buy on anticipat