日本半导体2026年展望：产能扩张和内容升级将推动增长

JapanSemis20266Outlook:Capacityexpansionandcontentupgrade to drive growth In this report, we update the 2026 seclor outicak for Japan Sernis, which we believe will bernarked with capacity expansion and content upgrade mostly driven by Al applications. Devid Dal, CFA+862 26 18 5704dsiddsibemsleinsgccm Backend equipment will see strong AI capacity build out for HBM and CoWoSassembly and testing. DiSCO will likely see the biggest inflection, s its growth was mutedin 2025 due to HBM and SiC capecity digestion, but in 2026, we see big upside in CoWoS(going from 80k to 140k and HBM igoing from 390k to 590k) capecity axpensicn. Wefer towefer bonding (BSPDN, NAND) provides edditional growth. wie raise DISCO's EPS growthin FY27/3 to 30%, a big acceleration frcm 1% in FY 26/3. PT is raised to 65,400. It wasthe biggest laggard Advantesl FY27/3 EP5 is also raised by 12%s to ¥555, but valualion isstill a rmiajor hurdle that prevents us fromi upgrading it. +852 2123 2622Juhc Hwangju/wengxbemsleinsg.cam Jsck Lin$886 $6. 6 98+ocklingbcmsteinsg.ccm Carmine Milsno144 20 7762 1857csrmins.milanotbenste nsg.co Front end equipment will benefit the most from DRAM capex, which we forecast togirow 33% in 2026 with room for further revision, while NAND capex will grow from lowbase as well given the strong bit growth e/nd content upgrade. China DRAM cepex likely willmost as both have 1/3 cxposure to DRAM, We lift Kokusai carning growth next year to 63%and lift PT to *6,930, and TEL PT to *44,200. Lasertec's idiosyncratic upside depends onTSMC adoplion which is possible but lacks visibilily. Screen is the cheapesl but is also theweakest in growth drivers. Material companies will depend on content upgrade, which we see in substrate andmask blanks. Iblclen willIlkely deliver strong growtn this year with Nviclia rs/mping up Rubin,where substrete content essentially douoles from Blackwell. But the upside thet's notpricedin is EMIB-T, which Intel vill use intemelly in 2026 end potentially externelly in 2C27projects with the increase to phase-shift mask blanks, and share gain in HDO substrate incapacity may present growth acceleration to HSD% this year.Toshibas followed by WDC. Sumco is still suffering high inventory, but incrementally the new Finally, analog (Renesas) willikely have its Al revenue doubling to HSD %contribution, while the trsditional suto and industriel semi slowly recovers from the troughIt's also tihe cheapest in the coverege on P/E. Top picks; DISCO for oquipment, end Ibiden for non-cquipment. BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS We rate DISCO (TP=¥65,400), Kokusai (TP=¥5,930.00), Tokyc Eleclron (TP=44,200), Hoya (TP=¥29,400), Ibiden (TP:¥8,250.00), Renesas (TP=¥2,300.C0) Outperform, and Advantest(TP=¥22,300), Lasertec (TP=¥26,300), Sereen (TP=￥14,800). Sumco (TP¥1,550.00) Market-Perform. DETAILS In this report, we I.pdate the 2026 scctor outlook for Japan Semis, which we believe will b: markrd with capecity expansicn and DISCO going from flat to +30% bicen accelerating from 35% to 53%, and Renesas from BACKENDEQUIPMENT:5TRONGAICAPACITYBUILDOUT DISCO: INFLECTION IN GROWTH Our letest D/SCO mode/ cen be downioaded fhere: DISCO Model. DISCO potantially will present the biggest inflection of growth trajectory among our coverage companies, While FY 2025growth was muted (EPS 1%, YoY) due to SiC correction and HBM cepacity digestian, we expect FY 2026 (27/3) bottom linegrowth to accelerate to 3C%, driven by: CoWoS capacity growth accelerating to 140k by end 2026, due to capacity expansion fromn both TSMC and OSAT to meetthe surging Al demand. In end 2025, CoWoS capacity froin TSMC and O5AT estimaled to be only 80k per month, and 42kwas added. In 2026, we forecast anether 60k to be sdded. This will bring DISCO's CoWoS revenue to grow 40% (Exhibit2-Exhioit 4). Apple willalso adopt wMCM this yesr for the upcoming iPhone 18 series, which is similar to CowoS fromDISCC/s equipment perspective and will cic to its revenue growth. ,HBM capex resumes growth after digestion. In 2O25, Sarmsung's HBM capscity hsd to be digested ss it was not @uslifiedby Nvidlia, and we believe DISCO's HBM revenue was down slightiy yesr over year because of that. In 2026, we expect HBMcapacity to accelerate to 586kwpm, bringing DISCO's rewenue beck to growth. (Exhibit 5-Exhibit 7) EX-B.T 6: ...and another strong vear adopled by TStC. For NAND HB, Kicxia vill migrale inore capacily le BICS 8 wtich adopls this lechnologs, and Samsungis expected te start using this by the end of 2026. For BSPDN, vhile Intel is the first one to mass produce the technology.TSMC will be the one with good volume. We see both combined contributing to 8% of revenue this year. (Exhiloit 8, Exhibit 9) EXHIB/T 9:...and contribute to growth for equipmentcompanies in 2026 / 2027. 11). As DISCO was big leggard in 2025, we believe it will outperform in 2026 once growth inflects. In aggregate, we revised the top line by 3.8% / 3.2%, for FY2026/2027, end we'r