日本金融行业周报（2026年6月）

Banks (Shinichiro Nakamura) EquityJapanBanks, Brokerage, Insurance & OtherNonbank At this week’s BoJ policy meeting, as market had expected, 25bp rate hike to 1.0% andhalt to reduction in pace of JGB purchases from April 2027 onward (with purchasescontinuing at¥2tn per month) were announced. Deputy Governor Uchida’s pressconference gave neutral impression, and probability of rate hike at Dec meeting changedonly marginally, remaining at about 94%. [Yen loan-deposit spread / loan yield trends]Among majors, Mizuho>Aozora>SMFG are relatively strong, while SMTG, which has highdeposit funding cost, is relatively weak. Among regional banks, Yokohama > HachijuniNagano and Daishi Hokuetsu are relatively strong, while Suruga remains on deterioratingtrend due to runoff of high-interest loans and deposit campaigns. At Rakuten,improvement is slower vs mega banks due to rising deposit rates, while SBI Shinsei has Shinichiro Nakamura>>Research AnalystBofAS Japan+81 3 6225 8824shinichiro.nakamura@bofa.com Natsumu Tsujino, CFA>>Research AnalystBofAS Japan+81 3 6225-8720natsumu.tsujino@bofa.com finally begun to turn to an improving trend. Improvement in loan yields at major banks isrelatively strong in Aozora > Mizuho > SMFG, reflecting the high ratio of TIBOR-linkedloans. Improvement in loan yields at regional banks is expected to improve with a lag,like Resona, because ratio of short-term prime rate-linked loans is higher vs major banks,and at this point Yokohama > Chiba > Hachijuni Nagano are relatively strong. At Rakuten,about 80% of loans are TIBOR-linked, and interest rate sensitivity is high within ourcoverage banks, but improvement is somewhat inferior vs mega bank average. At SBIShinsei, by significantly expanding lending to local governments, improvement in loanyields had been limited, but improvement began to emerge in the FY3/26 4Q results. Yuji Kobayashi>>Research AnalystBofAS Japan+81 3 6225 8791yuji.kobayashi@bofa.com ALM: Asset and liability managementAOCI: Accumulated other comprehensive incomeBoJ: Bank of JapanBRK: Berkshire HathawayCET1: Common equity tier 1CMBS: Commercial mortgage backed securitiesC&I: commercial and industrialDI: Diffusion indexESR: Economic solvency ratioEV: Embedded valueFICC: Fixed income currencies and commoditiesFSA: Financial Services AgencyFVTPL: Fair value through profit of lossMOCE: Margin over current estimateMPM:Monetary Policy MeetingMTP: Medium-term planMVA: Market value adjustmentNAV: Net asset valueNP: Net profitOIS: Overnight index swapP&C: Property and casualtyPPOP: Pre-provision operating profitRoEV: Return on embedded valueSaaS: Software as a serviceSFG: Sony Financial GroupTSE: Tokyo Stock ExchangeWM: Wealth managementWRB: W.R. Berkley Insurance, and other nonbanks (Natsumu Tsujino) We visited European investors for3 days last week. Most were long-only and broadlyaligned with our views, although many were bullish on JPX and securities. More detailsare on page 3. It was notable that while many investors focus on dividends andbuybacks, some hedge funds remain strictly focused on P/E. We recommended usingIFRS adjusted profit for the three P&C insurers (Exhibit 51), under which Sompo HD hasthe lowest P/E. The decline in long and ultra-long JGB yields following the BoJ’s rate hikes has beenreassuring for life insurers. However, yields spiked sharply on Friday, suggestingcomplacency is unwarranted. A sustained rise in ultra-long yields would increase marketinstability and weigh on ESR. If yields stabilize at a relatively high level, competition onguaranteed rates should ease, and for life insurers with positive new money inflows,spreads can improve without rotating JGB portfolios. T&D’s share price volatility likely reflects profit-taking after a strong run-up around theTDF sale announcement. The dividend yield gap versus Dai-ichi Life Group has widenedsignificantly, making Dai-ichi Life relatively more attractive in the near term, which isunderstandable. That said, downside also appears limited. With overseas private equityfunds showing interest in Japanese life insurers, some investors are considering thepotential for takeout scenarios. Banks BoJ meeting is neutral, but toward an overshoot beyond the 1.5% neutral rate At the June 17 BoJ policy meeting, as the market had expected, a 25bp rate hike to 1.0%and a halt to the reduction in the pace of JGB purchases from April 2027 onward (withmonthly purchases continuing at about¥2tn) were announced. Deputy Governor Uchida’spress conference was neither hawkish nor dovish, and the probability of a rate hike atthe December meeting changed only marginally, remaining at about 94%. Althoughprofit-taking selling in bank stocks was seen here and there on the day of the policymeeting itself, our view remains unchanged to be bullish on Japanese bank stocks overthe medium term. We regard major banks as more attractive over regional banks, basedon (1) the fact that the policy of raising rates about once every six months goi