AI计算需求驱动数据中心及供应链行业分析

China AiDCs and Supply Chain 2025's level as model training and inference needs grow... Head of A-share IT Software ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedyiran1.liu@hsbcqh.com.cn+861057952349Heng Zhang* (Reg. No. S1700524050001) .. benefiting leaders in Al data centres (AIDCs) and supplychainparticipantsat variousstages likeswitches Analyst,A-shareITSoftwareResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limited+86 10 5795 2384 + Initiate on Range and Ruijie with Buy ratings in separate reports Strong Al compute demand.We estimate China's Al compute demand to boomand reachc5GWby2028, c5xmorethan2025, drivenbyexplosive demand forlargelanguagemodel training and inference.Domestichyperscalers are rapidly boostingtheir capex, with the combined spending of ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent reachingRMB346bn in 2025 and set to more than double to over RMB700bn in 2026 (see Ex 6).This is stillwell below the spending intensity of US peers, indicating there's substantialgrowth potential. Leading AIDC operators and key supply chain participants (like switchvendors) should benefit. not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Al network upgrades. We see the TAM for data centre switches - the high-speedtraffic controllers of a network-reaching RMB118bn in 2030e, implying a 28%CAGR in 2025-30e, on 1) more layers being added to a network's structure givenlarger GPU clusters; 2) upgrades to switch port speed could boost product prices;and 3)scale-up switches (that connect GPUs within a rack)are new revenue driversonrisingpenetrationofSuperPOD.TheshifttotheseSuperPODclusterarchitectureraisestechnicalbarriersandbooststhevalueofspecialisedAiDCoperators likeRange whose market share we expect to reach 9% in 2028e vs 6% in 2025 in thedomestic data centre space, and Ruijie's market share in Chinadata centre switchesshould reach 24% in 2028e vs 21% in 2025. Going global opportunities. Over the long term, domestic IDC operators have thepotential to serve global inference demand via"token exports",leveraging China'smodel cost-efficiency,abundant low-costgreen power in western China,and lowerconstruction, mechanical and electrical equipment costs. PreferRange and Ruijie (both rated Buy).Benefiting fromthe Al computeboom,weexpect robustAIDC revenuegrowthforRange,anda43%2025-28eEBITDACAGR with improving margins. We expect Ruijie to gain market share in the fast-growing data centre switch market and expect its net margin to improve to 10% in2028evs5% in2025given better economies of scale.See ourinitiationreportspublishedtodayonRangeandRuijie Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities LimitedViewHSBC Qianhai Securities at:https://www.research.hsbc.com This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Robust demand,limitedsupply Strong token consumption brings robust demand forcomputebenefitingAIDCplayersPriceincreases intheGPUrental business(GPUaaS)are likelytocontinue with leaders gaining market share+Nextstepisfortokenstokeepgoingglobal RobusttokenconsumptionbringsstrongAiDCdemand AIDC is the core infrastructure for Al computeWe believe AIDC is one of the key sections in the Al compute supply chain. As the physical infrastructureof compute,AlDCs processdataand connect hardwareto software. (GPUaaS)business is quite popularin both China and US.Some traditional internet data centre(IDC)/AiDCplayershavemovedintothisbusiness.WelistseveralGPUaaSbusinessesbelow.Inour view, GPUaaSprovides multiple advantages compared to in-house built GPUinfrastructure,including 1)easier/quickeraccess to high-end GPUs comparedto self-built; and2)less investment required as rental refers to Opex instead of Capexfor enterprises.Exhibit3.DatacentresandGPUleasingbusinessmodelcomparisons Strong computedemandtodriveaccelerated growth;we expect China intelligentcomputetogrowataCAGRof74%over2025-28e,reaching5GWin2028e With more advanced model launches in 2026, token consumption has shown strong growth. PerNational Data Administration,China's daily token consumption reached 140trn in March 2026,which is 40% morevs December2025.In addition, IDC estimates that global agent token usagewill grow to 152,667 peta (1015) in 2030e, vs 0.0005 peta in 2025.The rising penetration ofgenerative artificial intelligence (GAl) and robusttoken usage growth potential brings strongdemandforAlcompute,and hence,CsPs/lnternet companies have raised theircapex.Notably,per company guidanceand media reporting,China hyperscalerstotalcapex in 2026e is settomore than double to over cRMB700bn (see Ex 6). As GAl penetration is still in the early stages, we expect the strong compute demand to persistand expect China intelligent compute(@FP16, or 16-bit binary floating-point computer numberformat)to grow to over 12ZFLOPS (10^3EFLOPS)in 2028e, close to 8xvs2025 level. Inaddition, we expect China intelligent compute data centre demand to grow at a CAGR of 74%over2