中国奢侈品进口：2026年4-5月奢侈品进口同比下滑

EuropeNorth America LuxuryLuxury Goods China luxury import: Slower April-Mayvs. months of 1Q ResearchAssociate+44-20-754-19487AdamCochrane Luxuryimportssequentiallydeclinedin2Q26(April-May)to-7.2%YoYvs.5.0%YoY in1Q26,onsimpleaverageterms.Strongestdeclinewasinhandbags-11.2%YoY,followed by jewellery-8.6%YoY and-1.9% in watches, allin unit terms. In terms ofmonthly evolution,all categories were down negative YoY in May,except forwatches.Jewelleryandwatchessequentiallyimprovedby+2.3%and+9.8%pts,respectively. Research Analyst+44-20-754-17812Andre Juillard Research Analyst +33-1-4495-6585 Fromamacrodataperspective,weakerYoYinretailandhouseholdwealthpointsgrowth recovery. Home prices remain down YoY at -4.8% vs. -4.9% in April andstockmarket returns slowed to +14.8%vs.+21%in April.This implies the pace ofconsumerconfidenceYoYmayslowfurther(latestavailableasofAprilat+1.4%vs.+3.3% during the months of 1Q26),which can act as headwind for the sectorrecovery in the region. ResearchAssociate Summaryof2Q26datapointsImport (in unit YoY terms): Total handbags -11.2% vs. +5.1% in 1Q26; leather handbags -9.8% vs. +2.5%; non-leather-12.4% vs.+7.5%; jewellery -8.6% vs. -6.0%/Retail:Apparel&footwear+1.5%vs.+6.5%;Gold,silver&jewellery-17.1%vs.+10.6%/Wealth:Nationwidehomeprices-4.8%vs.-4.9%;SSEHSlavg+17.9%vs. +21.2%. SummaryofMaydatapointsImport (in unit YoY terms): Total handbags -11.1% (-11.2% in Apr); leather handbags-20.6%(+0.9%); non-leatherhandbags-3.1%(-21.6%);jewellery-7.4%(-9.7%) /Retail: Apparel & footwear +3.8% (+3.6% in Apr); Gold, silver & jewellery-8.9%(-21.3%)/Wealth:Nationwidehomeprices-4.8%(-4.9%inApr); SSEHSIavg+14.8% (+21.0%) Luxury GoodsDB Luxury 360 into2QChina quarterly luxury import (volume, YoY) Luxury GoodsDB Luxury 360 cFXWeuse8-digitHScodesandtradingpartnercodestoidentifythespecificproducts we track.This data is released with a lag (on the 2oth of each month) to thepreliminary release (typically between the 7th to 14th of each month).Generally,wefind that the sum of leather and non-leather handbags a better measure of thebroadercategorydemand.Pleaseseebelowforlonger-termtrendanalysisagainstrelevant sectorcFX. 3MAtermsMonthly handbag import volume from FRA ITA Figure6:April-May2026volume importdown-11.2%YoYvs.April-May2025 Figure7:Italianhandbag imports are down sequentially9.0% in units in Q2 vs.+6.3% in Q1 Luxury GoodsDB Luxury 360 inunitsQ2vs.+5.9%inQ1Leatherhandbagunit importfromFRAvs.RMSAsiacFX JewelleryTheheadlinedatafor'Clothing andaccessories'and'Diamonds'imports available onthepreliminaryreleasedoes amoderatelygood jobof trackingthe relevantoftrackingthequarterlyvolatilitywe see inthe cFX data.Wetrack imports ofgold,platinum and diamond jewellery (in grams)from France, Italy and Switzerland. WatchesForwatches,theofficialSwisswatchexportdata(FH)toAsiaex-MiddleEasthas higher correlation with the relevant sector cFX.However,the publication schedulecan vary depending on the month, making it difficult to compare against othercategoriesforsomemonths.Onsuchoccasionswesubstitutetototal'mechanicalwatch'import data,which tendsto be more sensitive than the official Swiss databut in line with the FH data in terms of the direction of YoY change. Luxury GoodsDB Luxury 360 1Q26+15.9%Quarterly Swiss watch exportto Asia (units) Luxury GoodsDB Luxury 360 Discretionaryspendingenvironmentremains suboptimalfor luxury.Retail sales growth slowed down to-0.6%vs.+0.2%in Aprilvs.anaverage of+3.3%during themonthsofQ1.ChineseconsumerconfidencecontinuedtorecoverintoApril(latestavailabledata)butata slowerpace.Themeasurewasup+1.4%inAprilvs.+2.9%inMarch and+3.6%February.Householdbalancesheetremains underpressurewithhomeprices down-4.8%vs.-3.9% in April and stock market returns slowingto+14.8%vs.+21.0%inApril,allon YoYterms.Thedatapoints suggesttheappetiteforconsumerdiscretionaryspendremainsfragileandrequiresmorefiscalsupport. Luxury GoodsDBLuxury360 months of Marchand FebruaryChinaconsumerconfidence(1997=100) 4.9%inAprilChinahomepricevs.consumerconfidence April; down by c.-2%MoM in MayStockmarketvs.consumerconfidence Figure17:Set upfora stronger consumer confidencerecoverylooksweakerthanwhatwesawin1QChinaconsumerconfidencevs.wealthgrowth Note: SSE and HS/ returns as of May: SSE- Shanghai Stock Exchange; HS/-Hang Seng Index; ConsNote: Consumer confidence data as of February, SSE- ShanghaiStock Exchange,; HS/ -Hang Seng /nd Luxury GoodsDB Luxury 360 unfavourable for luxury recovery... Figure 21: ...whichmay put pressure on luxury cFXrecoveryintheregion Luxury GoodsDB Luxury 360 Appendix 1 *Otherinformationavailableuponrequest and othersources.Fordisclosurespertainingtorecommendationsorestimates made onsecuritiesotherthantheprimaryourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EguityResearchDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,Investors are strongly encouragedto reviewthis informationbefore investing. AnalystCertificationTheviews expressed inthis report accuratelyreflectth