您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [花旗]:艾伯维确认收购Apogee,溢价49%,预计2026年第三季度完成交割。 - 发现报告

艾伯维确认收购Apogee,溢价49%,预计2026年第三季度完成交割。

2026-06-22 花旗 心大的小鑫
报告封面

AbbVie (ABBV.N) Apogee acquisition confirmed for 49% premium; closing 3Q26 CITI’S TAKEAbbVie’s confirmed Apogee acquisition is a clean I&I pipeline-build, adding late-stage atopic dermatitis exposure and respiratory optionalityfrom the growing IL-13 class (Regeneron / Sanofi’s Dupixent grew +33%y/y in 1Q26) rather than changing the strategic narrative. The $135.11/shcash price values Apogee at ~$10.9B equity value (49% premium toThursday’s close), which we think is defensible given zumilokibart’s Q3M-Q6M dosing profile, JAK-like higher-order efficacy, and opportunity (Citi2032e $11B risk-unadjusted), though Apogee’s Blackstone financing likelyraised the clearing price. The timing is also useful: a potential 1H30 launchgives AbbVie room to ramp ahead of Skyrizi’s 2033 US LOE, andmanagement expects the deal to be accretive to non-GAAP diluted EPS Geoff Meacham, Ph.D.AC+1-404-443-4701geoffrey.meacham@citi.com Jarwei Fang+1-212-816-5127jarwei.fang@citi.com AbbVie is hosting aninvestor call TODAY at 9am ET(dial-in details: 877-934-8565,passcode: ABBVIE; webcast here). Nishant Gandhi, Ph.D.nishant.gandhi@citi.com Mary Kate Davismary.kate.davis@citi.com AbbVie ValuationWe calculate a DCF-derived Intrinsic Value for AbbVie of $230 per share by projecting free cash flows to 2030, thereafter applying terminal growth assumptions. Consistent with our sector methodology, we use the CAPM to calculate the cost ofequity. We use WACC of 7.6% and assume a 1% terminal growth rate. We project free cash flows out to 2030 and thereafter Risks We’d note downside and upside risks to our thesis and TP. On the upside, the momentum behind Skyrizi and Rinvoq couldcontinue at pace for longer than expected as well as presumed defunct agents (e.g. emraclidine) could show an unexpected,renewed pathway forward. On the downside, commercial underperformance of Skyrizi or Rinvoq or failure of key pipeline agentsthat mitigate the impact of Humira LOE in the near to mid-term, could have a negative impact on our TP. Risks also exist to the Apogee Therapeutics Inc(APGE.O; US$90.38; 1H; 18 Jun 26; 16:00) ValuationBased on our DCF-derived intrinsic values, our target price is $125. We calculate a DCF-derived intrinsic value by projecting free cash flows to 2032, thereafter applying terminal growth assumptions. Consistent with our sector methodology, we use theCAPM to calculate the cost of equity. We use WACC of 12.5% and assume a 2% terminal growth rate. Risks We rate Apogee Therapeutics as High Risk based on the usual volatility of biotech stocks and uncertainty/risk related to clinicaltrials, late-stage drug development, and regulatory decisions. Apogee has many of the risks associated with biotechnologycompanies. Share performance is closely linked to clinical and regulatory updates. Any such updates that fall short ofexpectations would lead to downside versus our target price. Due to the high cost of Apogee’s development effort, we highlight If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONThe research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated by “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple ACanalysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than(a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solelywith respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts orrating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the report IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES For financial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not a market maker, the Firm is a liquidity providerin such financial instruments (and any underlying instruments) and may act as principal in connection with transactions insuch instruments. The Firm is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that may have been Unless stated otherwise neither the Research Analyst nor any member of their team has viewed the material operations of theCompanies for which an investment view has been provided within the past 12 months. Attention: Legal/Compliance [E6WYB6412478]. In addition, the same important disclosures, with the exception of theValuation and Risk assessments and historical disclosures, are contained on the Firm's disclosure website at https://www.citivelocity.com/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures.Valuation and Risk assessments can be found in thetext of the most recent research note/report regarding the subject company. Pursuant to the Market Abuse