花旗最常阅读的商品与气候科技

22 Jun 2026 09:38:41 ET June 15 - June 21 Citi Global ResearchAC+44-20-7500-1400 Commodity Research | Equity Research As boundaries increasingly blur between conventional sectors, and as bottom-upand top-down analysis converges, Citi Research offers a Super-Sector lens to helpyou better understand and take advantage of widespread disruptive trends andinnovation, extending our peer analysis for greater breadth and depth. TheCommodities & ClimateTech Super-Sector consists of the Energy, Materials, CommodityResearch Cross-Commodity Outlook - The US-Iran MoU is a big deal, setting the stage forrenewed oil surplus, higher metals prices Oil markets have been driven primarily by geopolitics since the beginning of theyear, starting with the US and Venezuela, and more recently concerning the USand Iran. One big unknown was whether the US and Iran could find a path towardsSoH trade flows restarting, and this question appears answered, with both sides(Iran and US) today confirming an MoU has been approved, which is set for signingthis Friday. As a result, we see SoH flows resuming relatively quickly (our prior oil Maximilian J Layton| Francesco Martoccia | Anthony Yuen | Eric G Lee | Tom Mulqueen Metal Matters - Copper Book 2026 – Structural tailwinds and cyclical sensitivitypave path to $15 k/t copper In our most extensive and forward-looking Copper Book yet, we update thestructural investment case for copper by incorporating the rising role of energytransition, AI/datacentre demand, and evolving marginal cost dynamics driven byscrap. We analyse the macro backdrop, inventory and arbitrage dynamics, and thegrowing influence of investor positioning on price formation, alongside detailedoutlooks for consumption, mine supply, and scrap. We conclude that copper hasentered a structurally higher price regime, with ~$14–15k/t needed to balance themarket over the medium-term, even with modest cyclical growth. We forecast a Tom Mulqueen| Maximilian J Layton | Shreyas Madabushi We see a balanced market in 2026 but a deficitfrom 2027 on resilient structural energytransition and AI demand plus constrainedsupply growth Citi's copper price forecasts and scenarios Global Commodities - 3Q'26 Commodity Outlook - US/Iran MoU implications:sell summer oil rallies, moderately bullish metals, buy chocolate Our 3Q'26 commodity outlook focuses on how recent geopolitical developments,particularly the Iran–US MoU, shift the outlook across markets. We view theagreement as a major step towards the resumption and normalization of Strait ofHormuz flows, which over time should re-anchor oil prices to weaker underlyingfundamentals. In this context, we recommend selling oil and gas rallies over thesummer driven by geopolitical tensions, seasonal demand or weather risks. Ourbase case (60% probability) sees sustained normalization in flows, with oil Maximilian J Layton| Anthony Yuen | Francesco Martoccia | Eric G Lee | Wenyu Yao Global Gas and Power Insights - Further downside to global natural gas priceseven after the latest selloff Following the 15-20% selloff of TTF/JKM from the intraday high on June 11, we seefurther price downside amid the Mideast conflict de-escalation. Weak Asian LNGimports, China’s strong hydro generation and water flow to Southeast Asia, and alikely El Nino winter already casted doubt on the constructive price outlook GlobalGas and Power Insights: Low EU storage and SE Asia as an LNG demand driver tolift prices? Not quite (Jun 3). For US Henry Hub, timing is important. After pricesincreased recently partly due to summer, we expect strong Permian andHaynesville production in 2H26 and 2027 which should loosen fundamentals.Therefore, we lower our TTF price forecast to average $12.4/MMBtu (€37/MWh) in Global natural gas prices - historical and forecasts for Asian JKM LNG, European TTF and USHenry Hub natural gas - generally lower due to various forms of oversupply Global Commodities - Go long cocoa amid super strong El Nino. Trade Idea Trade idea:We initiate a long call option on ICE Cocoa with March '27 expiry (CCH7contract) and strike of $4,500, at a midpoint price of $489 (12-Jun-26 4:30pmET), target of $900 and stop at $250. The probability of a strong (super) El Niñohas been revised higher to 63% in the recent US NOAA June update, up from a 37%chance previously. We believe cocoa is a key El Niño play among agriculturalcommodities, as its production is highly concentrated in the areas most impactedby this weather phenomenon. Consequently, we have revised our supply and Arkady Gevorkyan| Eric G Lee | Maximilian J Layton | Anthony Yuen EquityResearch Pettinari on Paper & Packaging - Will Summer Containerboard & Boxboard PriceHikes Stick? In our weekly we highlight items of interest for Paper & Packaging investors: US Boxboard Prices JX Advanced Metals (5016.T) - Reportedly increasing InP substrate productioncapacity by up to 10x (Nikkei) The Nikkei reported on June 15 that JXAM is set for a ten-fold e