大中华区可再生能源：5月中国逆变器出口强劲增长，买入阳光电源、德业股份

Greater China Renewable Energy Strong Growth of PRC Inverter Export in May; Buy Sungrow and Deye CITI’S TAKEStrong growth of China inverter export demand continued in May, with export value +13.7% yoy and +0.6% mom to US$944m in May boosted bymore export orders from Australia and emerging markets in Africa andAsia. Inverter exports from Zhejiang, where Deye is located, was +33.7%yoy last month, while that from Anhui, where Sungrow is headquartered,was -41.8% yoy. Meanwhile, China solar module export value dropped13.2% yoy and 26.7% mom to US$1,789m in May due to demand cut fromAsia, Europe and Latin America. In PRC solar and ESS sector, we prefer China Solar SectorPierre Lau, CFAAC+852-2501-2716pierre.lau@citi.comAir Maair.ma@citi.com China inverter export value up 14% yoy in May– China inverter export value was+28.9% yoy to US$4,305m in 5M26, including +13.7% yoy and +0.6% mom toUS$944m in May. By destination regions, the incremental value demand in May wasmainly from Oceania (+289.0% yoy to US$74m) boosted by subsidy policy onresidential energy storage projects in Australia, Africa (+37.1% yoy to US$76m)contributed by more demand from emerging markets such as Nigeria, as well as Asia(+13.2% yoy to US$356m) with more demand from the Thailand, Saudi Arabia and thePhilippines. The monthly inverter exports to Europe was +0.1% yoy to US$334m,accounting for 35.4% (-4.8ppts yoy) of the total export. By major shipping origins, China solar module export value down 13% yoy in May– China’s solar module exportwas +14.9% yoy to US$11,047m in 5M26, including -13.2% yoy and -26.7% mom toUS$1,789m in May. In terms of export volume, we estimate China’s monthly solarexport volume to be -15.7% yoy and -25.2% mom to 18.9GW in May. By destinationregions, the demand decline in May was mainly from Asia (-27.1% yoy to 6.1GW),followed by Europe (-12.8% yoy to 1.4GW) and the South America (-30.7% yoy to1.2GW), though partly offset bye incremental volume from Oceania (+30.3% yoy to1.0GW), followed by North America (+27.7% yoy to 0.2GW). China’s total solar module Module production output to decline in June– China module production volume was-27.5% yoy to 171.8GW in 5M26, including -29.7% yoy but +14.5% mom to 36.4GW inMay according to SMM. The industry body estimates the monthly module outputcould drop 18.4% yoy to 37.8GW in June due to weak domestic demand. China’s solar See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: General Customs of PRC, Citi Research © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: SMM, Citi Research © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.Source: General Customs of PRC, Citi Research Ningbo Deye TechnologyValuation Our target price for Deye of Rmb142.857/share is based on a DCF model, which we believe is a suitable valuation methodology as we expect sustainable growth in energy storage demand from emerging markets, from current low penetration levels. Ourmodel incorporates our forecasts for cash flows up to 2035E and assumes a terminal growth rate of 3.0%. We apply a WACC of8.4%, derived from a risk-free rate of 1.6%, a market risk premium of 8.9%, and an equity beta of 0.9x. Our target price equates Risks Key downside risks that could cause Deye’s shares to trade below our target price include: (i) lower-than-expected residentialand C&I energy storage demand in emerging markets; (ii) fiercer-than-expected price competition among inverter peers; and(iii) higher-than-expected trade tariffs against Chinese inverter products in overseas markets. Sungrow Power Supply ValuationOur target price for Sungrow shares of Rmb168.0 is based on a DCF valuation, which we believe is appropriate because it captures the long-term potential returns of the company. We factor in earnings forecasts up to 2035E and terminal growth of4%. Our WACC for Sungrow is 9.0%, which assumes: 1) a risk-free rate of 5.2%; 2) a market risk premium of 6.8%; 3) an equitybeta of 0.9x; 4) a cost-of-debt of 3.9%; 5) a target debt-to-capital ratio of 30%; and 6) a 25.0% corporate tax rate. At our DCF- Risks Key downside risks that could prevent Sungrow shares from reaching our target price include: (i) slower-than-expected solarinstallation that could accelerate Sungrow’s PV inverter and EPC business growth; (ii) less-than-expected energy storagesystem demand from China and the overseas market; and (iii) intensification of overseas trade tensions that could lessen the If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the detailsof the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONThe research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated