对伊朗敏感的IP与价格表现：伊朗战争后资本货物板块的反弹机会

Cyclicals: Back on the Menu? Gael de-Bray, CFAResearch Analyst Chart of the week: Sensitivity to IP vs price performance since Iran warWith the US and Iran signing an MoU last week, the Hormuz blockade lifted and the ceasefire extended by 60 days, the companies hit hardest by the war may now havethe most to gain. Europe bore much of the pain given its sensitivity to energy prices,but as inflationary pressure fades and corporate investment sentiment recovers,capital goods names most exposed to industrial production should be well placedfor a rebound. This week’s chart plots the correlation between organic sales growth John KimResearch Analyst Nabil NajeebResearch Analyst+44-20-754-17410 Seetharaman RamakrishnaResearch Associate 22 June 2026Electrical Equipment 1/ Knorr-Bremse will provide a strategic update alongside Q2 results on 30 July,including new mid-term targets. We expect a 16%+ margin target for 2029 or 2030,around 2pts above its 2026 guidance. 2/ KION, meanwhile, continues to trade nearhistorically low multiples, with the market giving little credit for its more resilientbusiness mix versus prior cycles. A potential mid-single-digit cut to FY26 EBIT guidance should be a clearing event, while a better post-war growth outlook creates Last week Schneiderannounced a strategic collaboration with Foxconnto deliver integrated,ready-to-deploy solutions that enable customers to build AI data centers morerapidly and with greater efficiency. This collaboration brings together Foxconn’sexpertisein advanced compute platforms,AI rack integration,and global Wärtsiläannounced a 50/50 JV with RCT Solutions for its Energy Storage businesswith new investors possibly joining at a later stage. The company had struggledwith profitability in Storage (6% target margins vs. core group margin of 14%), withthe JV creating more vertical integration as RCT has been a key supplier to Wärtsiläfor several years. The press release indicates that the JV will be loss-making in 2026, According to Manager Magazin,Siemens Energyis looking into a potentialseparation of its ToI division through an IPO, the spin-off of a majority stake, or amerger with a competitor. If completed, the separation would allow SiemensEnergyto fully refocus on electrification markets,eliminate its Oil&Gas/ Fujikuraraised its FY26 operating profit guide by 47%, and its H1 profit guide by89% after just one quarter into the fiscal year. The upgrade came only a month afterFujikura provided a conservative FY26 guide, which lead to a sell-off in its shares.Fujikura has secured new orders for optical components, raised its prices and seesan easing of the impact from hydrogen shortages. While the update from Fujikurais supportive for sentiment in the space, the read-across forPrysmianis limited, in On Friday,Nexans' shares were up nearly 3%. We attribute the strength to itsElectra event on Thursday. The Q&A with management was positive with CEOindicating that they would know the result of an MI project tender to replace GSI inthe short term, by early Q3. Outside of transmission, management sounded very 22 June 2026Electrical Equipment On the macro side, US Empire manufacturing index for June declined to +5.7 (vs.cons: +13.7) from +19.6 in May, Industrial production for May increased +0.1%MoM (vs. cons: +0.3%, April: +0.7%), Housing starts declined to 1.177m (cons:1.43m) from 1.465m in April, and provisional building permits for May stayedalmost flat MoM at 1.413m (vs. cons: 1.418m, Apr: 1.423m). Germany's ZEWsurvey expectations index for June improved to +10.5 (vs. cons: -5.5) from -10.2 in This week On the macro front, key releases this week include the provisional Eurozone,Germany,France-Manufacturing PMI for June,France's ManufacturingConfidence Index for June, and US - Richmond Fed manufacturing Index for Juneon Tuesday, US Building Permits MoM (May F) on Wednesday, followed by Sector weekly performance and valuation:The sector ended the week up +6.0%,and up +3.5% vs. the STOXX Europe 600. As of Thursday, the sector traded on amedian 2026E P/E of 22.2x and EV/EBITA of 16.0x. For detailed valuation and risk Table Of ContentsReports you might have missed.........................................................................5We read in the news..........................................................................................9European EV/EBITA Multiples..........................................................................12European Share Price Performance.................................................................14US Share Price Performance............................................................................15Asia Share Price Performance ......................................................................... 16Valuation table.................................................................................................17 Reports you might have missed Siemens Energy: TI in the spotlight:According to Manager Magazin