对伊朗敏感的IP与价格表现：伊朗战争后资本货物板块的反弹机会

IndustryIndustrial Logic Capital GoodsElectrical Equipment Cyclicals: Back on the Menu? Gael de-Bray, CFA Chart of the week: Sensitivity to IP vs price performance since Iran war Research Analyst+33-1-4495-6562 With the US and Iran signing an MoU last week, the Hormuz blockade lifted and theceasefire extended by 60 days, the companies hit hardest by the war may now havethe most to gain. Europe bore much of the pain given its sensitivity to energy prices,but as inflationary pressure fades and corporate investment sentiment recovers,capital goods names most exposed to industrial production should be well placedfor a rebound. This week’s chart plots the correlation between organic sales growthand German industrial production across our coverage, against share priceperformance since the start of the Iran war. Those with the highest short-cycleexposure, including KION, Knorr-Bremse and SKF, still trade below pre-war levels.As the market moves through the post-war aftershocks, a number of upcomingcatalysts could support the recovery in the shares. John KimResearch Analyst+44-20-754-18699 Nabil Najeeb Research Analyst+44-20-754-17410 Lars Vom-Cleff Research Analyst+49-69-910-13526 Seetharaman RamakrishnaResearch Associate 22 June 2026Electrical EquipmentIndustrial Logic 1/ Knorr-Bremse will provide a strategic update alongside Q2 results on 30 July,including new mid-term targets. We expect a 16%+ margin target for 2029 or 2030,around 2pts above its 2026 guidance. 2/ KION, meanwhile, continues to trade nearhistorically low multiples, with the market giving little credit for its more resilientbusiness mix versus prior cycles. A potential mid-single-digit cut to FY26 EBITguidance should be a clearing event, while a better post-war growth outlook createsan attractive risk/reward skew. 3/ For SKF, the planned spin-off of the Automotivedivision remains on track for the autumn and should help drive a re-rating. Last week Schneiderannounced a strategic collaboration with Foxconnto deliver integrated,ready-to-deploy solutions that enable customers to build AI data centers morerapidly and with greater efficiency. This collaboration brings together Foxconn’sexpertisein advanced compute platforms,AI rack integration,and globalmanufacturing with Schneider’s expertise in power and cooling. Production willbegin later this year. Wärtsiläannounced a 50/50 JV with RCT Solutions for its Energy Storage businesswith new investors possibly joining at a later stage. The company had struggledwith profitability in Storage (6% target margins vs. core group margin of 14%), withthe JV creating more vertical integration as RCT has been a key supplier to Wärtsiläfor several years. The press release indicates that the JV will be loss-making in 2026,with -€40m to -€50m in expected EBIT contribution to Wärtsilä, including a negativeimpact from transformative actions such as the write-down of R&D. The deal isexpected to close in Q3 2026, with the JV to be reported as a share of results inassociated companies going forward. According to Manager Magazin,Siemens Energyis looking into a potentialseparation of its ToI division through an IPO, the spin-off of a majority stake, or amerger with a competitor. If completed, the separation would allow SiemensEnergyto fully refocus on electrification markets,eliminate its Oil&Gas/petrochemical exposure, and mechanically improve its margin profile by at least+50bps. Fujikuraraised its FY26 operating profit guide by 47%, and its H1 profit guide by89% after just one quarter into the fiscal year. The upgrade came only a month afterFujikura provided a conservative FY26 guide, which lead to a sell-off in its shares.Fujikura has secured new orders for optical components, raised its prices and seesan easing of the impact from hydrogen shortages. While the update from Fujikurais supportive for sentiment in the space, the read-across forPrysmianis limited, inour view. Fujikura does not have meaningful domestic bare fiber capacity in the US(making it exposed to tariffs), while the previous FY26 guide took into accounthydrogen shortages on the back of the war (while in Prysmian's case, the companywas not affected by the Hormuz blockade for inputs such as hydrogen). On Friday,Nexans' shares were up nearly 3%. We attribute the strength to itsElectra event on Thursday. The Q&A with management was positive with CEOindicating that they would know the result of an MI project tender to replace GSI inthe short term, by early Q3. Outside of transmission, management sounded verypositive on the demand outlook within data centers, both in Europe (where largeproject momentum is accelerating) and in the US, with Republic Wireproviding aspringboard for its MV cable offering. 22 June 2026Electrical EquipmentIndustrial Logic On the macro side, US Empire manufacturing index for June declined to +5.7 (vs.cons: +13.7) from +19.6 in May, Industrial production for May increased +0.1%MoM (vs. cons: +0.3%, April: +0.7%), H