重力抗衡——暂且：2025年中全球展望

A multi-polar world Foreword As we enter the second half of 2025, further developmentsin government policy and geopolitics will shape the trajectoryof growth, inflation and monetary policy, the key drivers ofmarkets – alongside US dollar dynamics and the mounting “ Even though many markets have recovered poise sincethe recent volatility spike, they remain vulnerable to Butthe decisive shiftaway from the liberal, free-trading, post-war order towards a multi-polar world with a more complexinternational landscape will almost certainly have far greater witnessed adecisive shiftaway from theliberal, free- The tension in the Middle East, meanwhile, adds yet anotherlayer of complexity and uncertainty to an increasingly complexglobal geopolitical landscape. Sonja LaudGlobal Chief Investment Officer Bill HughesGlobal Head of Private Markets With foundations stretching back to 1836, at L&G we will facethat future with humility, as we continue to seek opportunitiesand manage risk on behalf our clients. trading, post-warorder towards a Our ambition Of the various challenges involved in writing an outlook, two ofthe most prominent are: the possibility of having nothing newto say; and the risk of contradicting what you said only a few •Have we reached the end of ‘US exceptionalism’?•Is it true that there is no alternative (TINA) to US dollar Diversification also speaks to how we are seeking to fulfilour ambition as a business: to be a leading global investor,innovating to solve complex challenges for our clients, using Unfortunately for investor nerves, the events of the first half of2025 have given us plenty on which to opine. And we reiterateour core view that humility is more important than ever whennavigating the challenging investment landscape this year, as •How to tackle concentration risk and market volatility •The enduring strength of US Treasuries, the outlook forcash rates and how to navigate macro uncertainty acrosspublic and private markets To better meet our clients’ needs in a rapidly changing industryand macro landscape, we plan to build where we have existingexpertise; partner where we have aligned purpose; and buy •How pension proposals could boost investment intoprivate markets, bolstering economic activity and sterlingassets We have titled this midyear outlook ‘Gravity defied – for now’because risk assets have recovered since the precipitousdeclines of early April, which rival some of the worst collapsesin living memory. Yet even with the S&P 500 trading (at thetime of writing) above its level at the start of the second Trump For example, the US, continental Europe and select regionswithin APAC represent key strategic growth areas for ourprivate markets platform. They offer diversification for clientsand expand our investment opportunity set in a number •The implications for emerging markets of evolving US-China relations You will come across the word ‘diversification’1frequently overthe coming pages. That’s because we believe the concept –whether at a stock, issuer, sector, geographic or asset classlevel – is a key instrument in the investor toolkit for dealing We will showcase over the coming months each of ourcapabilities in turn to highlight how they can play importantroles in portfolios, at different points across our clients’ lifelong In this outlook, to which teams from across L&G’s AssetManagement business have contributed, we address some ofthe most urgent and salient issues and questions for our clients In the near term, we expect underlying growth to slow as pricerises from tariffs squeeze real incomes and policy uncertaintyundermines business investment. However, the consensusamong economists is that the US should be able toskirt An end to USexceptionalism? “ Sustaining American exceptionalismwill likely require the US to adoptand embed the use of AI as a Sustaining American exceptionalism – both in terms ofeconomic outcomes and asset price performance – willlikely require the US to adopt and embed the use of artificialintelligence as a labour-augmenting (and potentially labour- ” The rebalancing to come, messy though it may be,could ultimately lead to a healthier equilibrium of Jason ShoupChief Investment Officer, Asset Management,America, and Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Tim DraysonHead of Economics significantly. This could trigger a broader increase in inflationand put upward pressure on interest rates. A manufacturingrenaissance could crowd out private sector services, while The US enjoys tremendous advantages with its enormous,c. $30 trillion single market.2As investors reappraise theirholdings in US dollar assets, can the world’s largest economy Currently, the country’s free-market system encouragesinnovation and entrepreneurship, with deep capital marketsproviding funding and elite universities attracting top talentfrom around the world. It is the global technological leaderand home to the largest companies in the world. In addition, Investo