2026年长期资本市场假设报告

30thAnnual Edition Time-tested projections tobuild stronger portfolios Foreword I’m excited to share the 30th edition of J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Long-Term Capital MarketAssumptions. For three decades, this publication has been a cornerstone of our commitmentto providing clear, objective global forecasting, leveraging our experts’ perspectives to help ourclients achieve their financial goals. This year’s launch finds us in a world evolving in significant ways. Shifting economic landscapes,including the rise of economic nationalism and renewed fiscal engagement, are testing investorsbut also offering silver linings. In our 30th edition, we’ve assembled the expertise of more than 100 industry-leading portfoliomanagers, research analysts and strategists worldwide to provide return and risk expectationsfor more than 200 assets and strategies in 20 base currencies. Many investors and advisorshave come to rely on these assumptions to set their strategic asset allocation and to establishreasonable risk and return expectations for the coming 10 to 15 years. In our view, the increasing deployment of technology will drive near-term profitability and long-term productivity. Public and private investment will support growth, but over the coming decadeinvestors will need to account for inflation and rate shocks as well as economic (growth) shocks. Notably, our projections indicate that a balanced global portfolio stands to benefit from theseevolving trends, with ample opportunities to strengthen portfolio resilience. We also see a broaderset of possibilities for skilled active managers than perhaps ever before, in public and privateasset markets. On behalf of everyone at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, thank you for your continued trust andpartnership. We are honored to support your long-term ambitions and look forward to helping youachieve your investment goals. As always, we welcome your feedback. George GatchChief Executive OfficerAsset Management Contents 6Executive summaryShifting landscapes and silver linings 17Macroeconomic assumptionsResilient growth and warmer inflation Thematic articles 28Investing past and futureThe evolving science, and art, of investing: 30 years back,30 years forward 37Active strategies, lasting valueOpportunities for active management in a new market regime Assumption articles 46Public market assumptionsResilient profits, higher yields 56Private market and alternative asset assumptionsPowerful market forces set capital in motion 69Volatility, correlation and portfolio implicationsChanging portfolio construction in shifting landscapes Assumption matrices 82U.S. dollar2026 estimates and correlations 84Euro2026 estimates and correlations 86Sterling2026 estimates and correlations Appendix 90Acknowledgments Executive summary Shifting landscapes and silver linings Authors In brief John Bilton, CFAHead of Global Multi-Asset StrategyMulti-Asset Solutions •In the 30th edition of our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions(LTCMAs), we explore how shifting economic landscapes, markedbyrising economic nationalism and fiscal activism, create bothchallenges and silver linings for investors. Karen WardChief Market Strategist, EMEAGlobal Market Insights Strategy •Labor constraints weigh on U.S. trend growth, modestly narrowing theU.S. vs. rest of world growth advantage, but do not preclude cyclicaleconomic strength or solid asset returns. We expect investment to befront-loaded and believe technology adoption will provide a near-termboost to profits and a longer-term boost to productivity. Grace PetersCo-Head of Global Investment StrategyGlobal Private Bank •Even after a year of strong equity market gains, asset returns hold up.Profitability offsets valuations for global stocks and higher term riskpremia push up bond return forecasts. Our forecasted return for asimple USD global 60/40 stock-bond portfolio holds steady at 6.4%. •We have high conviction in the profitability of U.S. corporates butacknowledge the impact of high valuations and a weakening dollar.Currency provides a tailwind to international stocks for USD-basedinvestors and renews the focus on FX hedging for non-USD-basedinvestors. Globalstocks roughly double over our forecast horizon,given strong investment and resilient profits. •Higher inflation volatility is a feature of our economic outlook andpushes up our forecasted returns for high quality bonds. Given higherstarting yields and steeper curves, we project the best outlook forintermediate treasuries since the global financial crisis. Credit holdsup, with better riskless returns offsetting tight spreads. •As the investment cycle picks up, so, too, does the scope to harvestalpha. Private financial assets and hedge funds are well placed tobenefit, while real assets offer compelling returns, given rising inflationvolatility. For example, a 30% diversified alternatives allocation in a“60/40+” portfolio pushes returns to 6.9% and improves the Sharperatio