2026年资本市场展望报告

EconomicExperimentation Trade, Labor, and DebtUnder the Microscope Investing in a Period of Successful investing involves both art and science. The former is the “je ne sais quoi”that comes from an effective mixture of experience, intuition, and humility. You are The science of investing, by contrast, is available to all through the careful study ofevents and their antecedents. Fortunately, history rhymes and through the thoughtfulframing of key economic factors and study of their effects, we can gain a clearer sense Experimentation is normal Periodically, there is a deviation from economic trends or policy changes so significantthat it can be analogized only to economic experimentation. We find ourselves in sucha time today—making history less relevant and calling on a deeper understanding of Tony RothWilmington TrustInvestment Advisors, Inc. Critical to our inquiry is appreciating that experimentation is a feature—not a bug—ofan evolving economy. Much like science itself, there cannot be progress without History is littered with examples. These notably include withdrawing the U.S. from thegold standard in 1971; creating the euro in 1999; founding the World Trade Organization(WTO) in 1995 and granting China’s membership in 2001; bailing out banks during the Many economic experiments have elevated nations, moved financial markets forward,and even saved lives. But as with science, not all experiments yield anticipated—oreven positive—results. Some offer no material advancement, while others can go very While the paradigm of scientific experiment involves controlled tests and the isolationof one experimental variable at a time, the real world is not a laboratory. Economicexperiments implicate the unpredictability of human behavior and play out in a Themes for 2026 Our 2026Capital Markets Forecastdives into some of the economic experimentsoccurring today, offers our insights and observations, and draws key connectionsto investment strategy. We place no normative judgment on the merits of the Our first theme takes on the experiment of tariffs at the highest rates in the post-WWII period, intended to redirect global supply chains back to the U.S. for purposes ofeconomic prosperity and national security. We analyze the tariff policy’s current and The second theme looks at the shrinking of the labor force. Demographics, immigrationpolicy, and corporate investment in artificial intelligence form a powerful concoction Third, we tackle a familiar topic: the U.S. debt trajectory. This experiment has beenyears in the making and shows no signs of changing. Can the U.S. borrow far abovecurrent debt levels, as is projected, without unleashing disastrous consequences? Finally, we pull these strands together with what we believe matters most toour clients: a discussion of how the experiments are informing our investmentand diversification strategies to start the new year. And as it relates to portfolio To reiterate, we believe that experimentation is not inherently negative, but thatit takes us into unfamiliar territory, adding risk and, potentially, volatility to theinvestment landscape. It also can create a greater need for the art of investing, i.e., A historically concentratedU.S. equity market couldmean recommitting to botha thoughtful allocation to The scientific method at work in portfolios We begin 2026 recognizing that the results of some economic experiments willbecome clear in the year ahead, but many will take more time. We expect the U.S. economy to recover from its fourth-quarter slowdown, but itcould take the balance of the year before we see growth return to a 2% annualizedtrend. Consumers likely will continue to operate in a two-speed economy wherein From our themes, we seek to identify compelling investment opportunities in areassuch as industrial capital goods, technology, and private markets.1However, a longinvestment horizon is necessary—and caution is warranted in the short term—as Diversification against global fiscal risks may be partially achievable withopportunistic additions to precious metals and even cryptocurrency.The latter may not be appropriate for all investors, particularly the risk averse. THEME 01 The Reshoring Experiment Tariffs and Smart The U.S. drive to reshore manufacturing activity and jobs via the use of tariffs is anexperiment that, if successful, would unwind decades of movement to a globallyintegrated production and supply chain system. Importantly, the common narrativedescribes manufacturing job losses as a simple zero-sum game in which one country That said, overcoming the high relative cost of U.S. labor is a major challenge. Inaddition, higher-skilled labor is necessary to operate ever-more-sophisticated As we start 2026, our scientific observation indicates that the use of tariffs as themain tool to spur manufacturing reshoring does not yet appear successful. In the nearterm, we continue to see more economic risks than rewards from these tarif