2026年资本市场展望

EconomicExperimentation Trade, Labor, and DebtUnder the Microscope 2026Capital MarketsForecast 33CONCLUSIONThe OutlookFrom Lab toPortfolio Reality 15THEME 02The Labor ExperimentReplacing Workerswith AI 23THEME 03The Debt ExperimentInvesting in aDebt Cycle 5THEME 01The Reshoring ExperimentTariffs and SmartManufacturing Investing in a Period ofEconomic Experimentation Successful investing involves both art and science. The former is the “je ne sais quoi”that comes from an effective mixture of experience, intuition, and humility. You arelucky if you have it and, if you don’t, there is little you can do to acquire it anytime soon. The science of investing, by contrast, is available to all through the careful study ofevents and their antecedents. Fortunately, history rhymes and through the thoughtfulframing of key economic factors and study of their effects, we can gain a clearer senseof what economic trends may hold in the future. Experimentation is normal Periodically, there is a deviation from economic trends or policy changes so significantthat it can be analogized only to economic experimentation. We find ourselves in sucha time today—making history less relevant and calling on a deeper understanding ofmacro theory and current observations to predict where the economy and marketsmay be headed. Tony RothWilmington TrustInvestment Advisors, Inc. Critical to our inquiry is appreciating that experimentation is a feature—not a bug—ofan evolving economy. Much like science itself, there cannot be progress withouttesting new combinations of elements and interactions among variables. History is littered with examples. These notably include withdrawing the U.S. from thegold standard in 1971; creating the euro in 1999; founding the World Trade Organization(WTO) in 1995 and granting China’s membership in 2001; bailing out banks during theglobal financial crisis; and the Federal Reserve taking decisive action in times of crisissuch as the pandemic that encompassed rock-bottom interest rates, balance-sheetexpansion (i.e., quantitative easing), and the Fed’s role as lender of last resort. Many economic experiments have elevated nations, moved financial markets forward,and even saved lives. But as with science, not all experiments yield anticipated—oreven positive—results. Some offer no material advancement, while others can go verywrong. Often, the results are known only with the benefit of many years of carefulobservation. While the paradigm of scientific experiment involves controlled tests and the isolationof one experimental variable at a time, the real world is not a laboratory. Economicexperiments implicate the unpredictability of human behavior and play out in adynamic arena of infinite variables. Isolating any single factor at a time is simply notpossible. We must combine the science of observation with the art of interpretation tobest estimate how today’s economic experiments will continue to unfold. Themes for 2026 Our 2026Capital Markets Forecastdives into some of the economic experimentsoccurring today, offers our insights and observations, and draws key connectionsto investment strategy. We place no normative judgment on the merits of thehypotheses being tested today, but rather strive to draw economic conclusions andidentify investment opportunities—where we believe we have sufficient observationaldata points to do so. Our first theme takes on the experiment of tariffs at the highest rates in the post-WWII period, intended to redirect global supply chains back to the U.S. for purposes ofeconomic prosperity and national security. We analyze the tariff policy’s current andpossible future impact on manufacturing activity, jobs, and budgetary revenue whilehighlighting some of the investment opportunities we see associated with the newtrade regime. The second theme looks at the shrinking of the labor force. Demographics, immigrationpolicy, and corporate investment in artificial intelligence form a powerful concoctionwith potentially significant implications for long-term economic growth and tomorrow’sstock-market leaders. Third, we tackle a familiar topic: the U.S. debt trajectory. This experiment has beenyears in the making and shows no signs of changing. Can the U.S. borrow far abovecurrent debt levels, as is projected, without unleashing disastrous consequences?How can investors attempt to hedge against such risks? Finally, we pull these strands together with what we believe matters most toour clients: a discussion of how the experiments are informing our investmentand diversification strategies to start the new year. And as it relates to portfolioconstruction, we recognize that the equity market’s current concentration in theshares of AI-related companies is an experiment in and of itself. To reiterate, we believe that experimentation is not inherently negative, but thatit takes us into unfamiliar territory, adding risk and, potentially, volatility to theinvestment landscape. It also ca