2024年长期资本市场假设报告

2024 Long-Term CapitalMarket Assumptions Time-tested projections to buildstronger portfolios Foreword Shock waves from the defining events of the decade thus far – the global pandemic, the invasionof Ukraine, profound shifts in monetary policy, and, more recently, the terrible attack on Israel– continue to reverberate. Even so, we can begin to see the outlines of a changed investingenvironment. It’s a moment of transition, challenging long-established norms and recalibratingrisk-reward frameworks. At this interesting juncture, we are pleased to launch the 2024 edition of J.P. Morgan AssetManagement’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs). In our 28thyear of producingcapital market estimates, we incorporate more than 200 asset and strategy classes; our returnassumptions are available in 17 base currencies. Over the years, many investors and advisorshave come to depend on our assumptions to inform their strategic asset allocation, build moreresilient portfolios and establish reasonable expectations for risks and returns over a 10- to 15-yeartime frame. Additionally, with each passing year, we aim to readjust our long-run approximations,incorporating new information presented by markets, policymakers and economic data. In this edition of our LTCMAs, our economic and asset class forecasts generally hold steady.While the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio remains at the core, it requires extension, expansion andenhancement. The insights presented here aim to help clients identify the right adaptations fortheir risk and return objectives as they build smarter portfolios for a world in transition. We hope our analysis helps guide your long-term strategic perspective and active asset allocation.On behalf of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, we look forward to working with you to make the bestuse of our assumptions in setting, and achieving, your own investment goals. Thank you for yourcontinued trust and confidence. As always, we welcome your feedback. George GatchChief Executive OfficerAsset Management Contents Thematic articles 34The state’s role in the economyHow investors can assess the rise of industrial policy Assumption articles Assumption matrices Appendix Executive summary Smarter portfolios for a worldintransition Authors In brief John Bilton, CFAHead of Global Multi-Asset StrategyMulti-Asset Solutions We publish our 2024 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions at a timeof significant economic transition. We are moving from a world ofdisinflation, ultra-easy monetary policy and fiscal reticence to one withtwo-way inflation risk, conventional monetary policy and greater use offiscal tools. The energy transition and emergence of new technologiescomplicate the picture but also offer investment opportunities. Karen Ward Chief Market Strategist, EMEAGlobal Market Insights Strategy Monica Issar Global Head of Wealth ManagementMulti-Asset and Portfolio Solutions Our global growth forecast rises slightly to 2.4%. Developed market (DM)inflation forecasts rise 10 basis points (bps) to 2.3%, reflecting reflation inEurope and Japan and higher prevailing inflation levels – enabling centralbanks to meet their inflation targets more easily. High prevailing policyrates support our fixed income forecasts: USD cash rising 40bps to 2.9%and global Aggregate bond forecasts rising 40bps to 5.1%. The rally in stocks means lower equity forecasts. Although modestlybetter margin and dilution assumptions provide a partial offset,ourforecast for global equities dips 70bps to 7.8%. The gap betweendeveloped market and emerging market equity returns narrows this year,while the outlook for non-U.S. DM markets remains attractive. Alternative assets are arguably the brightest spot in an attractive universeof returns this year. The case for stepping beyond public markets comesboth from the inflation resilience demonstrated by alternatives and now byimproving returns. In real assets, core U.S. real estate improves 180bps to7.5%. In financial alts, private equity dips modestly, following equity beta,and the venture capital and direct lending forecasts both rise. If our forecasts last year highlighted the jump in return outlook in corepublic markets, this year’s numbers show this trend broadening out.Forecasts across almost 80% of our coverage universe sit above realizedreturns of the last 10 years. The 60/40 stock-bond portfolio in USD offers 7.0% returns. That is a dip of20bps from last year, but still a great starting point from which to extendout of cash and into a wide opportunity set, expand deeper into thealternatives universe and enhance with active alpha. In sum, ourLTCMAssend a hopeful message, empowering investors to build smarterportfolios for a world in transition. Inflation risk is now two-way, with a meaningful impact onportfolio construction: Bonds continue to do a good jobof protecting risky asset portfolios against disinflationarygrowth shocks but, as 2022 proved, a poor job protectingthem against infla