美国-伊朗协议：市场定价和平，经济仍为战争买单

Allianz Research|16June2026 US-Iran deal: Marketspricepeace, economiesstill In Summary •Markets have celebrated the end of the Strait of Hormuz conflict.The economy has notyet earned that relief—and for most households, corporates, and governments, thingsmay get worse before they get better. The physical reopening is a multi-month process,not a switch.The US-Iran MoU and 60-day ceasefire mark a meaningful turning point, butthey are a de-escalation framework, not a final settlement. Normalization will be slow,frictional,and reversible,and markets have frontloaded the good news before thetransmission lags have even peaked. Mine-clearing alone takes 30 to 50 days. After that,commercial traffic returns only as fast as shipowner confidence allows—the 1988 Iran-Iraq Ludovic SubranChief Investment Officer & ChiefEconomist Jordi Basco CarreraHead of Private Marketsjordi.basco_carrera@allianz.com Ana BoataHead of Economic Research Maximilian Bong-MaurerSenior Investment Strategistmaximilian.bong@allianz.com •Energy prices ease, but inflation peaks later than markets think. Brent stabilizes aroundUSD 80/bbl in Q3 before easing to USD 75/bbl in Q4 and USD 67/bbl by end-2027. Pastenergy increases are still passing through supply chains, utility bills, and rents. US headlineCPIaverages3.3%in2026and coreCPIpeaks at 3.1% inQ4;Eurozone inflation peaks around3.4% in Q4 before averaging 3.1%in 2026. Real wages turn positive only in Q1 2027. Markets Lluis DalmauSenior Economist forMENAlluis.dalmau@allianz-trade.com Guillaume DejeanSenior Sector Advisor •The shock hits every balance sheet-but Europe bears the deepest scar. The US absorbsthe blow with structural advantages: a net energy exporter, it captures a terms-of-tradewindfall through higher mining revenues and fiscal receipts, while tax rebates cushionhouseholds and AI-driven investment sustains corporate capex. Europe has no such offset.Governments across the Eurozone have deployed just EUR 12bn YTD-0.1% of GDP-withGermany's defense and infrastructure stimulus the sole demand anchor. Households face asharper and more persistent squeeze: energy bills represent a larger share of disposableincome than in the US, floating-rate mortgage exposure is higher across the UK andNetherlands, consumer confidence has not recovered to pre-war levels, and real purchasingpower will remain compressed through most of 2026. For corporates, the energy cost relief,most visible in transport and petrochemicals where fuel runs 25-40% of operating costs,runs Björn GriesbachHead ofMacroeconomic and CapitalMarkets Patrick KrizanSenior Strategist Fixed Incomepatrick.krizan@allianz.com Ano KuhanathanHead of Corporate Research America HernandezSeniorInvestmentStrategist Bernhard HirschHead of Rates and Emerging Markets Alexander HirtHead of Equity andCreditalexander.hirt@allianz.com •For central banks, the risk of a policy mistake is the highest since 2022. Both the Fed andECB are expected to deliver one further hike in H2-the Fed likely in September as core CPIticks above 3%, the ECB before year-end-before disinflation opens the door to cuts in H22027.Both face a time consistency problem as inflation pressure will fade quickly while theirdata-dependency on backward-looking measures continues to justify tightening well intoQ4. Overtightening into an already-fragile household and corporate backdrop remains a Maria LatorreSector Advisor B2B sectors Yao LuInvestmentStrategist Lina MantheyInvestmentStrategist Garance TallonEconomist •For capital markets, the signal is rotation and carry, not re-rating. Equities never priced theconflict as a systemic shock-MSCI US up ~8%, MSCI Europe +5% YTD-so there is little upside tounlock on good news but significant room to gap lower on bad. Valuations sit in the 85th percentilewith earnings in the 92nd percentile (MSCI World, 20-year history); a 5-10% pullback throughsummer is plausible. A tilt toward Europe, cyclicals, and energy-sensitive sectors is warranted overa broad melt-up. On credit, EUR IG at ~77bps and US IG at ~72bps are near all-time tights; the dealprotects the carry trade rather than opening new compression. In rates, the short end and belly of •Relief is the call. It is not the all-clear.Markets have frontloaded the peace dividend; the economicdata has not confirmed it. Inflation will get worse before it gets better. Household and fiscal stresswill persist well into 2026. And the deal remains conditional on nuclear negotiations and a multi-front ceasefire with a poor track record. The asymmetry is uncomfortable: upside on good news is How does the deal impact our economic outlook? The US and Iran have reached an interim agreement, due to be signed on 19 June, establishing a 60-day ceasefireand paving the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.After four months of disruption that rattled energymarkets and prompted central banks to resume monetary tightening, the announcement marks a significant turningpoint, reducing u