美国伊朗和平协议之后，印度将何去何从

India Strategy: A US-Iran Peace Deal. What after the rebound? Indian markets have been plagued by the geopolitical tussle in the middle east, and manypeace announcements over the last three months have been rather fleeting. But now, wesee an announcement coming from both US and Iran to end military operations, which webelieve is a firm one since it has come from official sources of both parties simultaneously, Venugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com Nikhil Arela+91 226 842 1482nikhil.arela@bernsteinsg.com Devil is in the details, but crude likely to be rangebound: At the moment, both partiescould try to spin narratives due to domestic political compulsions, and some devious detailsmay only become visible in some weeks. But what we can safely assume is the opening ofthe Strait of Hormuz (SoH). Crude has fallen to $83 levels already - which is working moreon the sentiment side right now. We don’t see a material relief in crude even with SoH beingopened, as a demand surge will likely follow, supporting the prices. In fact, we may even see India’s rebound trade - what it is: Indian markets are going to celebrate this newsundoubtedly, and this will be the time many of our sectoral calls two weeks back will playout. OMCs will likely stand to benefit from reduced prices, while aviation, travel and MENA-exposed names are other direct beneficiaries, in our view. We’ll likely see a continuedrebound in Healthcare due to easing of US pricing pressures. We also expect many infra-linked announcements in the Middle East after a decisive end to war - involving both energy India’s rebound trade - what it isn’t: It’s easy to get carried away, but we must rememberit’s just the recent dark clouds moving away, not necessarily the light getting brighter. Wehad anticipated an end to the war when we revamped our sector positioning early thismonth, and it doesn’t change our year-end Nifty target at 26,000 with a neutral stance.Valuations still remain pricier, India is on the wrong side of AI trade, crude is still likely to behigher than last year and the recent fuel/LPG hikes will feed to the inflation print, which has The other catalysts: As we await peace deal announcement, some interpretations arequite interesting with longer term repercussions for India. Iran has claimed that the dealincludes sanction waiver on Iranian crude, which could be a bigger catalyst and can seeoil prices below $80 (though still not at 60-70 range given a relatively low 3-4 million bpdsupply). This is quite likely given the US too would want the crude prices to be suppressedfast. It could be enough to shoot India back towards its fiscal glide path, a range India is DETAILS DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp • Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon. Not Rated: