对日本汽车及共享出行行业的观点及美国机构投资者调研反馈

Autos & Shared Mobility| Japan Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ Hiroto SegawaEquity AnalystHiroto.Segawa@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-8403 Feedback from US InvestorVisits Shinji KakiuchiEquity AnalystShinji.Kakiuchi@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-5416 Hayato TakashimaResearch AssociateHayato.Takashima@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-5414 While most have a guarded view on the autos industry given thesituation in the Middle East and concerns about the rise ofChinese OEMs, some have switched to a more bullish stanceamid hopes for a resolution of issues relating to the Middle East. Autos & Shared Mobility Our visits to investors in the US:We had the opportunity to hold meetings withinstitutional investors in the US over Jun 8-11 (in New York and San Francisco), andreport back on the main topics that came up and views we heard from investors, andthe impressions we took away. JapanIndustry ViewIn-Line Autos industry as a whole:Our impression was that most investors have taken acautious stance on the industry with the Middle East situation ongoing. Some –albeit not many – have already adopted a more bullish stance, with a view to thesituation resolving (particularly on stocks where share prices have fallen as thesituation has deteriorated). The main topics of interest among investors centered on 1) effects of supply chainconstraints and rising raw materials prices resulting from the Middle East situationand 2) concerns about falling market shares among Japan OEMs due to the rise ofChinese OEMs. In addition, we also fielded many questions about our interpretationas the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement comes up for review in Jul 2026. Individual stocks:Toyota: We found interest in topics including scope for upside vs.F3/27 OP guidance, earnings contributions from HEV models, and changes under thenew president from Apr 2026. We had the impression that the conservative natureof F3/27 OP guidance is not well understood. Honda: Many questions concernedseeking business opportunities relating to energy storage systems (ESSs). With 4-wheeler business subdued, we also noted considerable interest in growth potentialfor 2-wheelers, and risk of profit margins worsening with rising exposure to EVs.Nissan: While many investors spoke positively about progress in cutting fixed costs,we had the impression that many remain concerned about prospects of endinglosses in autos and securing positive free cash flow. SUBARU: Besides the revisedapproach to shareholder return announced with the most recent earnings release,another topic of high interest was the longer-term earnings outlook, includingmeasures to reduce prime costs and fill out the product lineup indicated in theManagement Policy 2025. Mazda: Expectations of growth in sales via the full modelchange in the new CX-5 SUV appear to have subsided since the situation in theMiddle East worsened.(continued on second page) Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Suzuki: We were asked a lot of questions about recent trends in auto sales in India, pricehikes announced in May, and the outlook for gasoline prices. Many investors alsoexpressed concerns about effects of the Middle East situation on the Indian economy as awhole, and we found no noticeable increase in interest in Suzuki while the situationremains unresolved. Mitsubishi Motors: Here, many investors voiced concerns about astiffer competitive climate in ASEAN markets due to events in the Middle East. We werealso asked about further development of collaboration with others such as Honda andNissan beyond the content of the longer-term vision unveiled in May 2026. Isuzu:Pushback on our UW rating was limited, and many commented on slow recovery in N.America and Thailand. Yamaha Motor: Our impression was that interest has increasedamong long-term investors. Besides a considerable focus on outdoor land vehicle (OLV)business restructuring expected to be unveiled with results for Apr-Jun, some investorsspoke positively about longer-term growth potential in outboard motors and stability of2-wheeler earnings. Valuation Methodology and Risks Isuzu Motors (7202.T) F3/27e BPS x 0.85. We apply a P/B multiple based on the correlation with ROE. Deriving theapplied multiple at an approximately 10% discount to the three-ye