观点总结：我们对美国、欧洲和日本的期限、曲线、互换利差、通胀和波动性的观点总结

Restricted - External Anshul Pradhan+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.comBCI, USRohan Khanna+44 (0) 20 7773 0533rohan.khanna1@barclays.comBarclays, UKAmrut Nashikkar+1 212 412 1848amrut.nashikkar@barclays.comBCI, USMoyeen Islam+44 (0) 20 7773 4675moyeen.islam@barclays.comBarclays, UKShinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL, Japan Inflation•Short TIIJan26/TIIJan27 breakeven.••Long 10yfwd20y real yield, as levels may now be attractive to structural real return investors.••Short 0.75 beta-weighted 10y BEs because market conditions may amplify bear moves.•Volatility•We maintain buying 10y20y ATM-100 receivers to position for lower rates and richening vol at•the long end of the curve.•We maintain a 2y1y ATM/ATM-50/ATM-100 1x2x1 fly to benefit from the market revising its•modal expectations for the terminal rate lower over time, while remaining protected againstlarge moves on either side.Money markets•Our economists look for one 25bp rate cut this year at the December FOMC meeting, and then•three 25bp rate cuts neat year at the March, June, and September meetings.•We expect the Fed to continue QT through June 2026. By that point, bank reserves will have•shrunk to about $2.7trn, or about 11% of bank assets. We expect the spread betweenovernight rates and IORB will have narrowed to within a few basis points.•We project the x-date to fall sometime in late August or early September. But significant two-•way risks remain, as newtariffrevenue could push the x-date to late October, while a growthslowdown would be anoffset.EuropeDuration•EUR: With the fiscal news ratcheting up in US and Germany, the path for a duration rally•appears to be narrowing. The performance of the long end (10y+) has been intricately linkedwith just how far the front end can rally and the performance of the latter remains a functionof how data evolves in the coming weeks and months. Specifically, the focus will remain onhow hard andsoftdata evolve and to what extent istariff-relateduncertainty impairingeconomic activity. Imminent weakness in economic data is now a necessary (but notsufficient)condition to support EUR duration at these levels. In terms ofrecommendations, we hold a long in 5y5y ESTR.•UK: May's rate cut was duly delivered but the MPC highlighted a high degree of uncertainty in•the outlook. A slower-than-expected rate cycle will see more priced from 2026. Retain Aug25/Dec25 MPC flatteners.Curve/curvature•EUR: We see medium-term risks as tilted to a steeper EUR long-end curve, given the•implications of growth risks for the front end and the potential bearish impact of Dutchpension fund reform and heavy issuance at the long end.•UK: The DMO's reshaping of the gilt remit towards short and and medium paper will keep gilt•curvature cheap, as the 7-20yr sector will bear the brunt of supply over FY25/26.EGB/swap spreads•EGBs: Tailwinds for periphery-core spread compression in EGBs are likely to persist: ECB rate•cuts should continue, sovereigns across the periphery are on upward rating trajectories, and 2 German net borrowing is set to ramp up significantly down the line. We recommend longs in10y Spain vs France given contrasting fiscal fundamentals and the evolving French domesticpolitical picture. Separately, we hold longs in 10y Austria vs 30y Germany (bearing in mindprospects for Austrian fiscal consolidation, and risks tilted to steeper EGB cash curves).Medium-term risks should remain tilted to ASW tightening given the net supply outlook andongoing full-pace QT; we recommend a flattener in the DU-RX ASW box (positioning forrelative underperformance of RX ASW).UK: ASW had caught a bid on discussion of possible regulatory spillover from the UST market.There is little market evidence to suggest a pressing need for change, but speculativepositioning will likely keep <5y spreads supported. But with supply to remain elevated in2025, 10y spreads may continue to experience tightening pressure.InflationEUR: We retain a bullish bias in EUR real rates, seeing potential for term premiumcompression.EUR: We recommend to be long 5y Spain breakevens, part energy-beta hedgedEUR: In RV, we continue to recommend a 5y5y-20yfwd5y HICPx steepener; also a DBRei 33iota tightener.GBP: Back-end UK real yields remain cheap, but may struggle to rally sustainably given globalmacro volatility.GBP: In RV, the RPI forward curve is priced fairly, in our view; we see potential for the curve tobull-flatten if risk-on regime prevails.VolatilityEUR:Mid-leftvol looks cheap as there is little room for further compression in vol riskpremium, while end-of-cycle dynamics and long-term uncertaintyoffersupport.JapanDurationWe look for 10y JGB yields to rise gradually in 2025, led by term premium. The risks arechanges to expectations for the neutral rate/policy rate path, QT plans and the trend in USyields. We expect US yield moves mainly toaffectJapan's risk-neutral yields, rather than termpremium, via the FX channel.10y BEI remains elevated,