亚瑟士深度分析：双向武士

Yugo Shima+81 3 6777 6994yugo.shima@bernsteinsg.com Ran Yang+852 2123 2658ran.yang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 6,100.00 JPY 7936.JP Asics Deep-Dive: A two-way Samurai ASICS today operates as a two-brand “two-way samurai,” with ASICS and Onitsuka Tigereach playing to distinct strengths that together broaden the group’s structural growthrunway. ASICS, anchored in unwavering product functionality, has earned deep trust fromserious runners and the mass market alike, giving it a resilient performance core that is lessexposed to fickle fashion cycles. Onitsuka Tiger, by contrast, sits squarely in the premiumlifestyle arena: the white space created by aggressive price hikes at European luxury brandsis providing a structural tailwind, and OT’s long-dated, disciplined execution positions itto take off as the world’s only footwear-centric, Japan-originated luxury lifestyle brand.Together, the two brands create a balanced portfolio across performance and premium, withmutually reinforcing equity yet clearly differentiated roles. ASICS is also a genuinely global franchise, with growth that is multi-regional rather thandependent on any single market, and with China’s potential still materially underestimated bythe market. Overseas sales already account for roughly 80% of total revenue, and overseasoperations contribute an estimated 70% or more of operating profit, reflecting a meaningfulmargin advantage across Europe, the Americas, and China. The portfolio is multi-polar —Europe around 28%, North America 17%, Japan 16%, Greater China 10%, with Southeast/South Asia and others filling the remainder — which acts as a structural buffer against tariffshocks and geopolitical risk while still leaving ample runway in underpenetrated regions.North America, having largely completed its long-running restructuring and reaching anoperating margin of 11.3% in FY2025, is now emerging as the next profit growth driver,while in China, structural reforms and the redirection of Chinese spending onshore (followingBeijing’s travel restrictions to Japan) are only beginning to be reflected in ASICS’ numbers,leaving a significant, underappreciated upside leg to the global story. Vs. consensus, our earnings forecasts sit low to mid-single-digits above for FY2027-FY2028,driven by stronger OT growth and China growth. Valuation reasonable at belowhistorical average, we recommend Asics as an earnings compounder with two engines andpotential multiple re-rate upside. Our initiation report:Initiation Japan Consumer - The Devil wears Uniqlo: AI, savvyconsumers, and the end of Hype Investment Implications We rate Asics Outperform with a price target of ¥6,100. VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS ASICS: Outperform, PT=¥6,100. A sports performance company anchored in functional performance, rapidly cementing itsglobal brand status in running footwear. ASICS combines overseas profit contribution with operating margin both exceeding thedomestic benchmark — validating the universal portability of its product edge. Onitsuka Tiger's dual-engine structure bridgingsports and luxury is unmatched among global athletic peers. We value ASICS at 28x NTM+1 EPS, with PT = ¥6,100, 40%upside potential. INVESTMENT THESIS ASICS is the structural winner of performance running, running the dual-engine of Core Performance × SportStyle driven byOnitsuka Tiger, while pulling ahead of peers on the quality of global expansion — a flagship name within the Japan consumeruniverse. (1) Structural winner of performance running— ASICS' share at the Hakone Ekiden expanded for five consecutive yearsfrom zero wearers (2021) to 28.5% (January 2026), reclaiming the #2 position behind Adidas and pushing former leader Nikedown to #3. The revival of technical credibility has cascaded from serious runners into the mass market, delivering industry-leading profitability: gross margin of 56.8% (FY2025) and operating margin of 17.6%. With approximately 50% of the productportfolio concentrated in running, the functionally-focused mix structurally minimizes exposure to fashion cycles. (2) Onitsuka Tiger's breakout growth— FY2025 sales reached ¥136.5bn (+43.0% YoY), crossing the ¥100bn standalonethreshold for the first time, with a category margin of 39.4% (before corporate cost allocation) — the highest across allcategories. Flagship concentration on the Champs-Élysées and Regent Street, strict wholesale restraint in mass channels, the2026 establishment of the Onitsuka Innovative Factory, and the deliberate deferral of the U.S. re-entry until 2027 — these arelong-dated commitments incompatible with short-cycle trend-chasing brands, and they form the launchpad for Onitsuka Tiger'stakeoff as the world's only footwear-anchored luxury brand. (3) Quality of global expansion — margin advantage across Europe, the Americas, and China, with geographicdiversification already achieved— Overseas sales account for approximately 80% of the total, and we estimate overseasoperating profit contribution t