日本汽车：考虑中东局势的股票选择

Hiroto SegawaEquity AnalystHiroto.Segawa@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8403 Autos: Stock Selection Considering the MiddleEast Situation Hayato TakashimaResearch AssociateHayato.Takashima@morganstanleymufg.com Focus on valuation appeal despite numerous headwinds (supply chain risks, higher raw material costs,slower auto demand). Individual stock ratings include OW for Suzuki, UW for Isuzu, and EW forToyota but with a positive bias. Automotive industry view: In-Line Autos & Shared Mobility •In addition to existing structural risks including 1) competition vs. China OEMs and 2) the investment burden fromelectrification and software, significant headwinds since developments in the Middle East are 3) lingering risk of autoproduction stoppages on supply-chain constraints as passage through the Strait of Hormuz has yet to be normalized,4) higher raw material prices, and 5) a slowdown in auto sales (demand shift from ICE to HEV and EV).•That said, share price falls have boosted the valuation appeal of individual names (Suzuki trading near historical lowon P/B, Honda, SUBARU, Mazda offering dividend yields of ~5%).•S&P Global forecasts global auto production declining 2% YoY.•Effects of rising raw material prices: We have adjusted our earnings forecasts assuming cost growth/vehicle of ~¥80k(US$500) for C-D segment passenger cars. Of this, we allow for increases of ~¥40k (US$250) each for crude oil-related materials and for other materials such as steel products, aluminum, copper, precious metals and semis.•Other key points to watch include the US midterm elections and developments around the USMCA, which is due forreview in July. Under USMCA, if the required ratio of components produced in the US is raised, we would expect anegative impact on Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Mazda. JapanIndustry View In-Line Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Individual stock ratings •Overweight (OW):Suzuki:Slower demand due to rising gasoline prices in India is a concern, but price increases areabsorbing some of the growth in raw material costs and the earnings undertone is relatively firm.•Equal-weight (EW):Toyota, Yamaha, Honda, Mazda, SUBARU, Mitsubishi Motors, Nissan:We think Toyota is likelyto gradually raise conservative guidance, also has prospects of increased earnings from HEVs. Our focus for Honda ison business relating to energy storage systems.•Underweight (UW):Isuzu:We think the firm faces high hurdles to delivering guidance assuming delayed recovery inCVs in N. America and LCVs in Thailand. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. FX Sensitivity, Policy Interest Rates, Automobile Retail Sales Ratio byRegionrate FX sensitivity (impact on OP) Source: Bloomberg,Morgan Stanley Research Stock Prices and Valuations (3) Forward P/Bis based onFactSetestimates.Source: FactSet,Morgan Stanley Research Forward P/E is based onFactSetestimates.Source:FactSet,Morgan Stanley Research Stock Prices and Valuations (4) Forward Dividend yieldis based onFactSetestimates.Source: FactSet,Morgan Stanley Research Forward EV/EBITDAis based onFactSetestimates.Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research Source:FactSet,Morgan Stanley Research Source:FactSet,Morgan Stanley Research Stock Prices and Valuations (5) GlobalAutomobileProduction and SalesVolume (2) xEVSales Ratio (1) Source: Motor Intelligence, Morgan Stanley Research Source: CAAM, Morgan Stanley Research xEVSales Ratio (2) Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Source:MarkLines, Morgan Stanley Research Source:MarkLines, Morgan Stanley Research xEVSales Ratio (3) Germany UK Source:MarkLines, Morgan Stanley Research Australia Source:MarkLines, Morgan Stanley Research xEVSales RatioandAuto Sales by Level of Autonomy Morgan Stanley Research estimates based on automobile industry associations from various countries,e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates,Source: Morgan Stanley Research OP Impact of Rising Raw Material Prices: How did companies factor this into their guidance? ・We believe it is appropriate to compare the impact of cost increases across companies on a per-unit basis by aggregatingboth Middle East-related factors (e.g., petroleum-based resins) and non-Middle East-related factors (e.g., copper, aluminum,semiconductors, supplier payments). ・Based on a comparison of total cost i