日本化学：原油价格上涨时期的股票选择

Chemicals: Stock Selection During Periods ofRising Crude Oil Prices lPetrochemical majors (industry view: Attractive):Expecting continued weak petrochemical demand and ethyleneutilization rates, but in addition to China’s anti-involution policies, there are signs of naphtha cracker downsizing in SouthKorea; believe the overall mood is improving. Asia petchem prices and spreads unlikely to fall further, but probably lackrecovery momentum. Added impetus for industry reorganization. Petchem prices surged, given the situation in theMiddle East. Investment indicators remain low and shares look generally undervalued. Investment appeal in SumitomoChemicals, as it focuses resources on accelerating growth in the agrochemicals and IT-related sectors, coupled with a V-shaped recovery in earnings from its pharmaceutical subsidiary. OW on Sumitomo Chemical (4005), Mitsui Chemicals(4183), Asahi Kasei (3407); EW on Mitsubishi Chemical (4188), Tosoh (4042). lElectronic chemicals (industry view: In-line):In addition to the expansion of AI semiconductors, demand for legacysemiconductors is also gradually recovering, and a steady growth trend continues. For silicon wafers, although userinventory levels remain high, the recovery trend continues, centered on 300mm wafers. Risks include production cuts inproduction volumes smartphones/PCs due to surging memory prices. Continue to recommend stock-picking based oncompany-specific factors. We continue to like Shin-Etsu Chemical as a core company. We are OW on Shin-Etsu Chemical(4063), Zeon (4205) ; EW on Nissan Chemical (4021), SUMCO (3436), Kuraray (3405), Dexerials (4980); UW on NittoDenko (6988). Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. lFine chemicals (industry view: In-line):Carbon fiber composite materials show significant revenue improvement due tofull recovery in aircraft applications. Toray is our Top Pick, with the top share in carbon fiber business and strength intextiles and functional chemicals. We are OW on Toray (3402); EW on Gunze (3002); UW on Teijin (3401); ++ on DIC(4631). For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. [++] indicates the data for this company have been removed from consideration because under Morgan Stanley policy and/orapplicable regulations, Morgan Stanley may be precluded from issuing such information with respect to this company at this time. CLICK HERE FOR ACCESS Ce = Company estimates, e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, e(IFIS) = IFIS Consensus data .Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Overseas chemical industry market cap trends / Market cap ranking of global chemicalcompanies (Top 20) Petrochemical majors:Industry view: Attractive Petchemdemand, ethylene utilization rate remain weak, but heading for bottom.In addition to China’s anti-involution policies, there are signs of naphtha cracker downsizing in South Korea,believing the overall mood is improving.Asianpetchemprices and spreads look to have bottomed. Industry reorganization has begun and momentum is set to increase.We look forpetchemprices to surge in the near term, given the situation in the Middle East.Investment indicators remain low, with stocks looking undervalued overall.Investment appeal in Sumitomo Chemicals,as it concentrates management resources to accelerate growth in the agrochemicals and IT-related sectors, coupled with a V-shaped recovery in earnings from its pharmaceutical subsidiary.Our preferred namesareSumitomo Chemical, Mitsui Chemicals and Asahi Kasei. Japan Petrochemicals Industry to Accelerate Business Restructuring Supply/demand for petrochemicals has worsened further as ethylene production in China has surged since 2020. Reconsolidationmomentum in Japan’spetchemindustry is gaining steam. Industry is shifting business structures from a focus on basic chemicals (vulnerable to economic swings) to high-margin functional chemicals (relatively insulated from economic waves). Ethylene margin and market cap of major petrochemical companies Global ethylene supply/demand Utilization bottomed out in 2023, now on a modest upward trend Domestic ethylene capacity utilization/commodity resins net export trend:With weak domestic demand, ethylene capacity utilization is low Progress on restructuring at olefin complexes Progress on restructuring at olefin complexes Mitsui Chemicals (4183):