铅月报：成本刚性&需求乏力 铅价低位区间震荡

成本刚性&需求乏力 铅价低位区间震荡 核心观点及策略 原料端，铅矿供应偏紧态势已常态化，内外加工费延续低位承压，环比均有小幅下滑，炼厂需求不减且铅矿进口倒挂，预计加工费难有明显好转。铅蓄电池报废量较少，叠加再生铅炼厂复产增加原料需求，废旧电瓶价格重心有望缓慢抬升。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 李婷从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 冶炼端，海外供应扰动增加，嘉能可Kazzinc炼厂发生事故后降负荷运行，越南环保检查及原料紧缺限制炼厂开工，东南亚现货溢价抬升。国内6月电解铅炼厂减复产并存，预计月度产量环比减少至34.48万吨。再生铅炼厂复产增多，6月产量预计环比增加至21.95万吨。 黄蕾从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 需求端，电动自行车领域，以旧换新政策脱坡叠加新国标实施，整车销售承压，电池配套需求偏弱；但步入夏季高温，电池替换需求存在边际回暖可能。产销同比放缓拖累汽车启动电池配套消费，叠加出口退税下调、海合会反倾销双重利空，电池出口持续走弱。终端需求实质性改善空间有限，预计电池厂开工率难以大幅抬升。 王工建从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 整体来看，原料端铅精矿、废电瓶货源持续紧缺，对铅价形成刚性成本支撑，叠加海外供应区域性紧张带来外围利好。但国内电解铅及再生铅增减相抵后供应小幅增加，且需求修复乏力，供需偏弱制约铅价上涨。多空因素博弈，预计6月铅价低位区间震荡为主。 何天从业资格号：F03120615投资咨询号：Z0022965 赵奕从业资格号：F03153902投资咨询号：Z0023788 风险因素：宏观风险，供应超预期增长 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4 二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1全球铅精矿供应缓慢修复.................................................42.1.2内外加工费环比回落，铅矿进口转亏损....................................62.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................82.2.1海外炼厂供应扰动，全年精炼铅供需过剩..................................82.2.2电解铅炼厂利润较好，6月产量环比回落..................................82.2.3废旧电瓶价格重心上抬，再生铅炼厂复产增多..............................92.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................112.3.1铅锭进口转亏损，电池出口延续承压.....................................112.3.2消费淡季，铅酸蓄电池企业开工承压......................................122.3.3政策利好预期降温，存量需求提供支撑....................................132.4全球显性库存维持高位...................................................14 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2 2025-2026年海外铅精矿产能变化（万吨）...............................................................5图表3全球铅矿月度产量情况................................................................................................6图表4国内铅矿产量情况........................................................................................................6图表5 2025-2026年国内主要铅矿产能变化（万吨）...........................................................6图表6内外铅矿加工费情况....................................................................................................7图表7铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................7图表8铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................7图表9银精矿进口情况............................................................................................................7图表10全球精炼铅月度产量..................................................................................................8图表11各州精炼铅产量情况..................................................................................................8图表12电解铅产量情况..........................................................................................................9图表13原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................9图表14 2025-2026年国内原生铅新扩建产能（万吨）.........................................................9图表15再生精铅产量情况....................................................................................................10图表16再生铅企业原料及成品库存....................................................................................10图表17废电池价格先涨后跌................................................................................................10图表18再生铅企业利润情况................................................................................................10图表19精炼铅出口情况........................................................................................................12图表20电池出口情况............................................................................................................12图表21精炼铅进口情况........................................................................................................12图表22精炼铅进出口盈亏....................................................................................................12图表23铅酸蓄电池企业开工率.............................................................................................13图表24电池库存....................................................................................................................13图表25铅酸蓄电池终端消费占比........................................................................................14图表26汽车产量情况............................................................................................................14图表27汽车保有量................................................................................................................14图表28电动自行车保有量....................................................................................................14图表29 LME库存延续增势...................................................................................................15图表30国内库存累库放缓........................................