铅月报：成本支撑&消费疲软 铅价延续低位震荡

成本支撑&消费疲软 铅价延续低位震荡 核心观点及策略 原料端，国内北方铅矿矿山陆续复产，铅矿供应有所增加，但原料紧平衡格局并未改变，铅矿加工费环比小幅修复回升，绝对价格仍处于低位。铅矿进口由小幅盈利转为小幅亏损，进口到货预期回落，进口矿加工费保持平稳。铅酸蓄电池处于消费淡季，废旧电瓶报废回收量偏少，对电瓶报价形成较强韧性支撑。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 李婷从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 冶炼端，嘉能可Kazzinc炼厂发生事故，海外精炼铅供应存在潜在扰动风险。国内原生铅炼厂盈利尚可，5月前期检修炼厂复产，推动电解铅月度产量稳步增长。但国内多家大型炼厂进入常规检修周期，且多数炼厂对后续原料供给偏悲观，生产维持低负荷运行，预计再生铅月度供应量将明显回落。 黄蕾从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 需求端，铅酸蓄电池行业仍处传统消费淡季，电池厂商及经销商库存压力攀升，压制行业开工水平。终端需求疲软，政策补贴退坡、新国标落地以及消费前置透支，共同拖累电动两轮车与汽车产销增速。不过伴随618电商大促临近，需求或有边际改善。但受关税上调、海运费走高影响，电池出口承压态势未有缓解。 王工建从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 整体来看，铅矿及废旧电瓶原料供应偏紧，成本端对铅价形成刚性底部支撑。海外炼厂事故扰动升温，国内电解铅、再生铅供应呈此消彼长格局，叠加铅锭进口窗口收窄，供应压力边际弱化。但消费疲软，铅锭高库存压力不减。当前铅市供需双弱，矛盾有限，预计铅价延续低位区间震荡。 何天从业资格号：F03120615投资咨询号：Z0022965 赵奕从业资格号：F03153902投资咨询号：Z0023788 风险因素：宏观风险，供应超预期增长 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4 二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1全球铅精矿供应缓慢修复，预计2026年小幅增加23万吨.....................42.1.2内外加工费低位企稳，铅矿进口窗口开启..................................62.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................82.2.1海外炼厂供应扰动，全年精炼铅供需过剩..................................82.2.2炼厂复产为主，电解铅供应维持增势......................................82.2.3废旧电瓶价格窄幅波动，再生铅炼厂维持低负荷............................92.3精炼铅需求情况.........................................................112.3.1铅锭进口预期收窄，电池出口承压.......................................112.3.2消费处于淡季，铅酸蓄电池企业开工疲软..................................122.3.3政策利好预期降温，存量需求提供支撑....................................132.4全球显性库存维持高位...................................................14 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2 2025-2026年海外铅精矿产能变化（万吨）...............................................................5图表3全球铅矿月度产量情况................................................................................................6图表4国内铅矿产量情况........................................................................................................6图表5 2025-2026年国内主要铅矿产能变化（万吨）...........................................................6图表6内外铅矿加工费情况....................................................................................................7图表7铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................7图表8铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................7图表9银精矿进口情况............................................................................................................7图表10全球精炼铅月度产量..................................................................................................8图表11各州精炼铅产量情况..................................................................................................8图表12电解铅产量情况..........................................................................................................9图表13原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................9图表14 2025-2026年国内原生铅新扩建产能（万吨）.........................................................9图表15再生精铅产量情况....................................................................................................10图表16再生铅企业原料及成品库存....................................................................................10图表17废电池价格先涨后跌................................................................................................10图表18再生铅企业利润情况................................................................................................10图表19精炼铅出口情况........................................................................................................11图表20电池出口情况............................................................................................................11图表21精炼铅进口情况........................................................................................................12图表22精炼铅进出口盈亏....................................................................................................12图表23铅酸蓄电池企业开工率.............................................................................................12图表24电池库存....................................................................................................................12图表25铅酸蓄电池终端消费占比........................................................................................14图表26汽车产量情况............................................................................................................14图表27汽车保有量................................................................................................................14图表28电动自行车保有量....................................................................................................14图表29 LME库存延续高位回落...........................................................................................15图表30国内库存缓慢增加............