内存追踪（4月）：2026年第二季度再次大幅涨价

MEMORY TRACKER (Apr): Another major price hike in 2QCY26 This monthly tracker (download datasethere) summarizes spot and contract price datareleased by TrendForce/DRAMeXchange & compares that with our model & investorexpectation. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com DRAM: Apr contract price rose broadly and indicated another 57% QoQ increase forconventional DRAM contract price in 2QCY26. Spot price: As module houses took some profits, DRAM spot price consolidated somehow,with server DDR5 module spot price down 6.7% MoM, PC DDR4 chip price down 4.4% butPC DDR5 chip price up 4.2%. Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Contract price: DRAM contract prices in Apr went up broadly MoM. Overall Apr DRAMcontract price was 57% higher vs. 1QCY26, with 40% for PC, 48% for Server, ~80% forMobile & ~60% for Consumer. Server demand remained the most robust while PC & Mobileis expected to soften. And as a result price increase likely will decelerate into 3QCY26.Memory suppliers have mostly concluded LTA negotiations with US CSPs by the end of Apr& TrendForce expects discussion with enterprise and PC customers too. April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com NAND: contracts indicated price to rise by 65-70% QoQ for 2QCY26, mainly drivenby SSD and Mobile NAND packages. Spot price: NAND wafer spot price dropped by c. 7% MoM in Apr. Contract price: The overall Apr NAND contract price is expected to rise by 65-70%compared to 1QCY26, with wafer price up but narrowed to 22-25%, eMMC/UFS usedprincipally in Mobile & SSD up c. 75-80%. Going forward, as consumer demand softens,NAND price hike is also expected to continue but narrow notably into 3QCY26. In summary, both DRAM and NAND contract prices are indicated to see anothermajor increase in 2QCY26, and at a rate ahead of our expectation too.Demandremained robust for server DRAM and eSSD, and continued keeping supply tight. On theother hand, spot price sent a mixed signal, as price hike is hitting consumer end demandhard, & forcing OEMs & module houses to reduce their purchases. As a result price increaseis expected to decelerate notably into 3QCY26. The focus now increasingly shifts to LTAsnegotiations, which were progressing and may include enterprise & PC OEMs later too.Depending on the scope of the agreements, LTAs may mitigate the impact of a correction.We model memory prices to stay strong into CY27 and begin to normalize from 2HCY27and into CY28 as well. SeeGlobal Memory: Price increase more than expected in2QCY26andSandisk FQ3'26: Nosebleed ASPs (now locked in); Raise estimates andTP to $1700, Reiterate Outperform (top ST pick)for details. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Samsung Electronics:We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with price target of KRW 225,000. SK hynix :We rate SK hynix Outperform with price target of KRW 1,150,000. Micron:We rate Micron Outperform with price target of US$510.00. KIOXIA: We rate KIOXIA Underperform with price target of JPY 17,000. SanDisk:We rate SNDK Outperform with a price target of $1,700.00 DETAILS TrendForce (who publishes research on memory market & also maintains DRAMeXchange for memory spot market) has releasedthe Apr 2026 contract prices for DRAM & NAND covering different applications (dataset can be downloaded atMemory PriceTracker). We select mainstream products from each segment, apply different weights on them to derive an industry average ASPchange. SSD & HBM are not in the samples & will be additionally considered so that we can compare the ASP with our projection.Spot price is noisy but we also summarize some spot price data as it can be a leading indicator of contract price. Please feel free tofind ourmost recent market reviewand download our industry and company models from the links below. •CoWoS/HBM Model•DRAM Industry Model•NAND Industry Model•Samsung Electronics Model•SK hynix Model•Micron Model•KIOXIA Model•SanDisk Model Apr contracts suggested another 57% QoQ increase for conventional DRAM contract price in 2QCY26, stronger thanour current forecast. Looking forward, PC and Mobile demand is expected to soften and price increase in 3QCY26should narrow. LTA negotiation was nearing conclusion for US CSPs by the end of Apr. Spot price: •PC DRAM: PC DRAM chip spot price saw some consolidation in Apr, with DDR4 dropping 4.4% MoM but DDR5recovering 4.2% MoM after the drop in Mar (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 3, Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6), as price hike is expectedto moderate & some channel distributors thus lowered inventory to take profit. Additionally, module houses have alsoacquired sufficient inventory and were ramping down their purchase. •Server DRAM: Server DRAM spot price also consolidated in Apr, with DDR5 down 6.7% MoM but DDR4 up 10% (Exhibit1, Exhibit 11, Exhibit 12). Overall it see