全球半导体与硬件：中国智能手机追踪（4月）：中端市场压力蔓延，涨价面临阻力

China Smartphone Tracker (April): Pressure spreading to mid-end& price hikes facing resistance Please download our smartphone monthly tracker data fromhere. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com The impact of high memory costs spread to the mid-end segment & pressuredthe overall shipment to a 6-year low.In April, China smartphone sell-through declined15% MoM and 10% YoY to 16M units. That marked the lowest point since Sep 2021 &brought 4M26 cumulative shipments to 7% drop YoY. On the other hand, some foundries& component suppliers have reported better-than-feared results. We wonder if there isinventory buildup & some delayed damage in 2H26 or 1H27. Mix-wise low-end segmentcontinued to lag and premium segment still outperformed. The mid-range shipment reversedsharply from +16% YoY in March to -16% YoY in April, likely as price hikes gradually tookplace from late March. Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com High inventory level as the result of weak acceptance of price hikes?April ASP rose16% YoY, extending YTD rise driven by both mix shift & like-for-like price increases. However,sell-through lagged notably behind sell-in for non-iPhone OEMs, suggesting that recent pricehikes were not well accepted. With “618” promotions coming, we believe ASP rise is likely tomoderate as OEMs balance price vs. volume. Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Aleksander Peterc+33 1 57 29 45 25aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com Still no improvement to Huawei’s premium shipment, & we wonder if LogicFolding &“Tau(τ)Scaling Law” can change that.Huawei's Mate 80 Pro Max model has Kirin 9030made with SMIC “N+3” & is indicative of China’s leading logic capability under export controls.Data showed the wait time for Pro Max has become shorter, but Huawei’s premium segmentshipment hardly rose. Further on 25 May, Huawei unveiled “LogicFolding” & “Tau(τ)ScalingLaw”, aiming to narrow the gap vs. TSMC to 3 years in 2031 (vs. c. 6 years now). We howeverbelieve they’re vertical die stacking & corresponding design optimization that TSMC & therest of the world have been mass-producing for years. We thus wonder how they can uniquelyhelp Huawei so much more to narrow the gap. We rate MediaTek Outperform (report, model). Smartphone will likely be a headwind in2026, but AI ASIC should be more than enough to compensate. We raised our TPU revenueforecast to US$2B, 15B & 22B for 2026-28, respectively and reiterate Outperform. We rate Apple Outperform as strength continues and share gains play out(see AppleDeep Dive and recent APPLE TRACKER), helping supply chain including Luxshare (OP).Investor sentiment toward camera component makers (e.g., Sunny Optical, Largan) areimproving as investors look past near-term memory headwinds and focus on companies’expansion into optical communications (e.g., CPO) in 2027-28. Xiaomi’s (OP) shipments declined by -23%YoY on a high base, with market share fallingto 14.6%, down from 15.6% in March 2026 and 17.0% in April 2025. Shipments of high-end models (RMB 4k+) was largely flat in April 2026. In contrast, mid-range (RMB 2–4k) andlow-end (