中国智能手机追踪（3月）：低端市场压力加大

China Smartphone Tracker (March): More pressure on low-end +85221232645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com shipmentwas flatYoYbutdropped23%MoMto19Munits.The cumulativeshipmentin 3M26was 6%lowerYoYbut we expectmountingpressurefrommemoryprice&model the totalsmartphone shipment in China to fall by 15% YoY this year. While mid- & high-tier segmentstill expanded their shipment by 16% & 23%, respectively, YoY in March, the fall in low-tierworsened from 15% YoY in Feburaryto 27%.OEMs are canceling low-tier models, & thenumber of new smartphone launches hit a historical low (15 models vs. c. 40 on averagepreviously). By OEMs, OPPO & vivo were hit more while premium brands like Huawei andApple were barely affected. +12135595917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com +1 212845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Alex Wang, CFA+85221232613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Smartphone ASP increase also continued.ASPin March rose 15% YoY, vs.+14% in Feb& both contributed to the ASP rise in March.On average, smartphone launched year-to-datehavebeenRMB300-500pricierthantheirpredecessors. Eunice Lee, CFA+85221232606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com MutedappetiteforHuawei'spremiumphonemayimplyunderwhelmingperformanceofSMIC"N+3node.Huawei'sMate8OProMaxmodelhasKirin9O3OmadewithSMiC"N+3"&is indicative of China's leading logic capability under export controls. Huawei overtookAppleinshare&alsoexpandeditsownshareoverFebruary&Marchbutthankstoadifferentmodel.Meanwhile,thewaittimefor Pro Maxbecame shorter,but Huawei'spremiumsegmentshipment hardly rose. This implies supply from SMiC may improve, but the shipment is limitedpossibly by underwhelming performance of the chip (&hence SMiC"N+3"process). AleksanderPeterc+3315729 4525aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com Balanced sell-in vs. sell-through & little inventory risk. Adjusting the sell-in data fromCATRfor possible obsolescence, we find sell-through was similarto sell-through in Marchforboth iPhone and non-iPhone brands, indicating a limited inventory risk. We rate MediaTek Outperform.Smartphone will likely be a headwind in 2026 but AlASiC should support rapid growth starting 4Q26.Recent small redesign does not changeour forecast forUS$2BASIC revenue in2026.Our2027&2028EPSisnotablyaboveconsensus.Outperform. WerateAppleOutperformas strengthcontinuesand sharegainsplayout (see AppleDeep Dive and recent APPLE TRACKER), helping supply chain including Luxshare (OP).Risingmemory costs are pressuringlow-tomid-endAndroid vendors,but Transsion(688036CH, not covered) passed through the cost inflation in 1Q26, with gross margin recoveringthe smartphone supply chain through the rest of the year. Xiaomi's(oP)shipments-9%yoy ona highbase,butitsmarketsharerosemodestly inMarreaching15.6%from14.0% inFeb2026,thoughdown from17.2% in Mar2025.Shipmentof high-end models (RMB 4k+) dropped -25% in Mar 2026, reflecting a high comparisonbase following the launch of the Xiaomi 15 Ultra series in late Feb 2025. In contrast, mid-range models (RMB 2-4k) grew +22% YoY, while low-end models (below RMB 2k) declined INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS MediaTek (0P, PTNT$2,250.00): Werate MediaTek Outperform with PTNT$2,250.00. Novatek (MP, PT NTS370.00): We rate Novatek Market-Perform with PT NT$370.00. Apple (OP, PT$340): We rate AAPL Outperform with PT $340. QcoM (MP, s140): Memory headwinds appearlikelyto pressure smartphone builds and numbers appear high; we shall see ifdatacenterdream is enoughto attractbuyers. Luxshare (OP,PTRMB74.00):WerateLuxshareOutperformwitha RMB74.00pricetarget. SunnyOptical (OP,PTHKs76.00):Werate SunnyOptical Outperformwitha HK$76.00pricetarget. Soitec (Outperform,PT41).We rate Soitec Outperform with a PTof 41.00.Near-termtrendsremainuncertain as RF-SOIl (60% of revenue) remains under pressure from foundry de-stocking, offsetting strong growth in Photonics-SOIlfor DCI/Alclusters. Xiaomi (Outperform,PT HK$46):We rate Xiaomi Outperform withprice targetfor 1810.HKat HK$46.00. that with the sell-in data publishedby CATR to help investors geta view on handset inventory. Additionally, we summarize sharesof mobile SoC suppliers &the use of displaypaneltechnologies.Pleasefind the details of our methodology in this and thisreport. : In March, the total smartphone sell-through in China was flat YoY but declined 23% MoM to 19M units (Exhibit 1). The cumulative shipment in 3M26 was down 6% YoY.We want to quantify the impactfrommemory price,but thehigh-basefrom centralgovernmentsubsidies in2025&consumersanticipatingprice hike& likely purchasing aheadmake it difficulttoisolate the effect of memory. segment.Should we define low-tier segmentas smartphones priced below RMB 2,000 (below c.US$290),mid-tier as RMB2,000-5,000 (c.US$290-725)and high-tier as above RMB 5,000 (above c.US$725),wefind the shipment of the low-tiersegment dropped 27% YoY in March, whereas mid-& high-tier shipment up 16% &23%,respectively, in the same monthcould be primarily attributed to OEMs cutting the supply of low-tier models.The number of new smartphone launc