中国智能手机追踪（9月）：iPhone17发布推动苹果整体销量回升，但整体销量同比下降10%

China Smartphone Tracker (September): Overall Applerebounding due to iPhone17 launch but overall sales down 10%YoY Please download our smartphone monthly tracker data fromhere. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Weak September.Total smartphone sell-through in China declined 10% YoY and 15% MoMto 20M units. 9M25 total shipment has risen only 0.1% YoY despite the help of stimulus.With incremental stimulus unlikely and the high base in 2H24, we expect 2025 full-yearsmartphone sell-through to drop slightly YoY. Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Apple’s iPhone17 launch driving sequential growth.Apple was the only OEM growingMoM thanks to the launch of iPhone 17 series. On YoY basis, according to the CINNO date,total iPhone shipment shrank 6% (vs. ourAPPLE TRACKERshowing China iPhone units up5% YoY for Sept). The shipment of cheaper SKUs nearly doubled, as iPhone 17, and alsoiPhone 16 & iPhone 16 Plus whose prices dropped upon iPhone 17 launch, are now pricedbetween RMB 5,000-5,999 and thus eligible for subsidies. In comparison, Huawei’s salesmomentum is likely to remain soft before it renews its Mate series this coming November.Non-Apple/Huawei OEMs fell MoM but collectively gained 4pts market share vs. a year ago,as they benefited from the low-end models (price below RMB 2,000) they released in earlyJuly. Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Aleksander Peterc+33 1 57 29 45 25aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com Non-Apple/Huawei sub-flagship continued to outperform.We monitor the mix offlagship (≥ US$850 (RMB 6,000)) & sub-flagship (US$560-850 (RMB 4,000-5,999)) phonesas they have higher semiconductor content & may suggest the interest in AI phones. Similarly,we also track the overall ASP. In September, sub-flagship saw volume up 54% YoY & its mixin total sales almost doubled vs. one year ago. The overall ASP rebounded MoM on higheriPhone mix. On YoY basis, ASP was flattish but would’ve been up if subsides were added back. We rate MediaTek Outperform.We gained higher visibility on the growth runway of AI ASICbusiness to 2028 as the company reiterated the revenue target for the 1stTPU project &confirmed the design-win of the 2ndTPU project. Cost inflation may weigh on smartphonemargins but price increase & mix optimization are likely to mitigate that. We remain positiveon the name and believe the recent pullback is a good entry point. Sentiment over Apple supply chain improves, while the increasing memory pricingweight on camera component stocks.Luxshare (Apple + AI narratives) is the top pick inTech Hardware coverage. While Sunny (OP) is on track grow its profitability, its large exposureto Android and increasing memory pricing weights on valuation in the near term. Xiaomi's shipments accelerated sequentially to +6% YoY & YTD growth stable at +9%.The successful launch of its new flagship model Xiaomi 17 on September 27thdroverobust market share expansion to 17%. Premium mix was also boosted significantly on bothMoM and YoY basis, with 25% >RMB 4,000 models mix in September. This was led by aremarkably higher mix of Pro and Max versions of Xiaomi 17 vs. Xiaomi 15 (last-gen flagshipmodel)(Quick Take). We rate XiaomiOutperform. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS MediaTek (OP, PT NT$1,600.00):We rate MediaTek Outperform with PT NT$1,600.00. Novatek (MP, PT NT$440.00):We rate Novatek Market-Perform with PT NT$440.00. Apple (OP, PT$325):We rate AAPL Outperform with PT $325. QCOM (OP, $215): AAPL headwinds are now here but are known, the product portfolio is stronger than ever, option valueexists, and the shares are very inexpensive. Luxshare (OP, PT RMB 59):We rate Luxshare Outperform with a RMB74 price target. Sunny Optical (OP, PT HK$110):We rate Sunny Optical Outperform with a HK$110 price target. Largan (MP, PT NT$ 2,400):We rate Largan Market-Perform with a NT$2400 price target. Soitec (Outperform, PT €74).We rate Soitec Outperform with a PT of €74. Soitec’s near-term trends remain uncertain;however, RF-SOI (60% of revenue) should by now be nearing a cyclical bottom. Xiaomi (Outperform, PT HK$60).We rate Xiaomi Outperform with PT HK$60. DETAILS This tracker is mainly based on the smartphone sell-through data that CINNO reports for China market. We usually compare thatwith the sell-in data published by CATR (China Academy of Telecommunication Research) to get a view on handset inventory butnot in this report as CATR still hasn’t published the September data. Additionally, we summarize shares of mobile SoC suppliers &the use of display panel technologies. Please find the details of our methodology inthisandthis report. September sell-through dropped by 10% YoY and 15% MoM. Apple was the only brand growing MoM thanks to newiPhone 17. •In September, the smartphone sell-through in China declined by 10% YoY and 1