航空航天与国防：三天内十二位首席执行官——伯恩斯坦战略决策会议的航空航天与国防主题

Aerospace & Defense: Twelve CEOs in three days - A&D themesfrom Bernstein's Strategic Decisions Conference Last week, we hosted twelve Aerospace & Defense CEOs at Bernstein’s Strategic DecisionsConference in New York. CEOs participating were from Anduril (private), ATI Materials (notcovered), BAE Systems, Boeing, GE Aerospace, General Dynamics, Howmet, L3Harris,Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and RTX. Here, we summarize overall themes, as well Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8430douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.comAdrien Rabier+44 20 7676 6820adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.comNestor Wester+44 20 7676 7067nestor.wester@bernsteinsg.com We heard common themes from the commercial aerospace companies, all of whomcontinue to see a strong aftermarket outlook, despite concerns regarding high fuel pricesimpacting airline profitability. This is still a watch item if high fuel prices are extended, butis not likely to hit results in 2026. For OE demand, suppliers were positive now that Boeingis taking deliveries up on the 737 and 787. Suppliers still have some challenges, given thatOE and aftermarket are growing strongly at the same time. For engine suppliers, IGT is Specialist Sales On the defense side, there remains uncertainty about the 2027 defense budget. Still, allof the defense companies expect the budget to be up, even if not to the $1.5 trillion levelproposed by the administration. Missiles and missile defense remain the hottest areas, withgrowth frameworks being put in place. Solid rocket motor suppliers (L3Harris, NorthropGrumman, Anduril) are all responding. Space also continues to be an area of high budgetgrowth. Shipbuilding continues to see higher budgets, with progress appearing to come on BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Our Strategic Decisions Conference presented a positive outlook for commercial aerospace stocks, as OE ramp rates riseand aftermarket demand remains solid even with airlines facing rising fuel costs. For defense stocks, there continues to be DETAILS CONFERENCE THEMES COMMERCIAL AEROSPACE - MAJOR THEMES •No signs yet of a slowdown due to high fuel prices. All commercial aero companies reiterated that they have not seenany signs of weakness in demand, given the concerns around airline profitability amidst high fuel prices. Should the high fuelprices place longer-term threats to airline profitability, we could see pressure, particularly from discretionary purchases (e.g., •Rising Boeing production rates. Boeing confirmed that it has passed its capstone review with the FAA to move to rate 47/month on the 737, which is expected to be fully achieved during the summer. CEO Ortberg expressed optimism about futurerate breaks to 52/month and 57/month - and then added that the company would look on to a 63/month rate. For the 787,he reaffirmed the goal of being at 10/month by year-end. Suppliers were reacting positively to the Boeing outlook. Suppliers •Airbus widebody ramp slower than expected.We heard from suppliers that the pull for the A350 ramp at Airbus wasmoving more slowly than expected. This is consistent with recent reported commentary by Airbus. regarding delays on the •Aftermarket demand remains high for engines and equipment.Shop visits are generally covered for 12-18 months,or more for new models, limiting risks of cancellations. Also, lessor ownership of airplanes at many of the weaker carriersprovides a source of protection for the companies in MRO. One issue, however, is that the combination of rising OE demand •A next narrowbody remains a long way away.While GE continues to discuss its RISE program, other commercial aerocompanies were much more focused on near-term production challenges. In the case of RTX, it was also nearer-term forPratt & Whitney, with the GTF Advantage ramp being the current next step. At Boeing, it was also much more about current •IGT becomes a growth area for some. Howmet and ATI each describe growth potential as suppliers for industrial gasturbines, that leverages their aero engine technology. GE is also seeing increased demand for its aeroderivative products. DEFENSE - MAJOR THEMES •2027 budget.All the defense companies expressed optimism about the budget, although without assuming anythingabout how President Trump’s will fare through Congress. Each company made the point that their programs were primarilysupported by appropriations, rather than in reconciliation. We heard little concern about a possible CR, which has become •Rapid growth in missile demand and production plans.Lockheed Martin and RTX each described the very strongdemand outlook for missiles, which ties into new frameworks for production growth. Demand is still higher after highusage of munitions during the Iran war. Those frameworks apply to a broad range of missiles and plan for 3X or 4X currentproduction over five to seven years. The contracts are expected to have guarantees that will reimburse the companies should •Missile supply change challenges, par