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波音:总裁兼首席执行官凯利·奥特伯格在伯恩斯坦2026年战略决策会议上的发言

2026-05-27 伯恩斯坦 洪雁
报告封面

Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8430douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.comAdrien Rabier+44 20 7676 6820adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.comNestor Wester+44 20 7676 7067nestor.wester@bernsteinsg.com Specialist SalesSteve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Boeing (BA) Presenter:Douglas S. Harned (Senior Analyst, Aerospace & Defense) Date & Time:27thWednesday 2026, 10:00AM Highlights: •737 production:Production stable at ~42/month and will move to 47/month (passed FAA capstone), with 52/month as next step;timing beyond 47 remains dependent on system readiness. No big supply chain issues at least until rate 52/month given inventory buffer.Boeing bringing on a fourth production line for the 737 in the Everett facility to support production rate of 52/month •787 production:Currently at ~8/month with target to reach 10/month later in the year; ramp is gated by engine supply recovery andseat certification bottlenecks. Aircraft are being produced, but deliveries are constrained by seat certification leading to lumpiness indeliveries. •Certification updates (737-7/-10, 777X):737-7 and -10 are >80% through flight test with certification expected by year-end,enabling 2027 delivery support (737-7 to be certified before 737-10). 777X flight testing continues through year-end, with ETOPSextending into next year. •BDS margins :Margins remain constrained by fixed-price programs (KC-46, T-7, MQ-25), with profitability dependent on rolling into newcontract phases. Medium-term target remains high single-digit margins. •Space:Boeing’s space business is split into two segments: human space exploration (e.g., Starliner) and national security space(including strategic satcom satellites and classified work). The national security space segment has multiple applications related to theGolden Dome initiative. The space exploration business faces challenges, particularly from fixed-price contracts such as Starliner. NASAhas scheduled one Starliner launch this year and another next year, while Boeing works through fixing deficiencies identified in priormission. •China Order:The China trip is viewed as very successful, despite the 200 initial commitment (which will convert to orders later in theyear) being below investor expectations for 500. The primary objective was to reopen the China market after more than a decade, whichthe company successfully achieved. China’s long-term demand exceeds 500 aircraft annually, implying this is the first tranche of abroader pipeline. •FY2027 budget :More funding for the F-15EX, T-7 and MQ-25 •F-47:Boeing is investing heavily in the St. Louis facility to support F-47 production and potential future opportunities. The program isstrategically important as F-18 production winds down. •777X-Cash outflows will remain elevated in 2026 and 2027 but will turn in the 2028 timeframe. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Boeing Co We value our Aerospace companies by using a terminal value four years four based on an EV/EBITDA multiple. We adjust fornet debt to arrive at an equity value, discount that to our valuation date and add the discounted value of cash distributions toshareholders between now and the terminal date to reach our 12-month target of $298. For Boeing, our terminal EV/EBITDAmultiple is 16.7X, derived from a blend of commercial aircraft and defense multiples. We adjust our terminal EBITDA estimate fordifferences in the unit and program earnings for the 787 and 737 program. RISKS Boeing Co Downside risks would be an extended strike, worsening supply chain issues, and execution challenges in both commercial anddefense businesses. Certification timing on the 777X, 737MAX-7/10 is also a risk. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloo