液化空气美洲公司首席执行官在战略决策会议上的发言

185.00 EURF26E7.03FinancialsEBITDA (M)EBIT (M)Dividend/Share F24AF25E6.016.33F24AF25EF26ECAGR7,8968,1208,725--5,3915,5606,075--3.303.503.70--Valuation MetricsAdjusted P/E (x)EV/EBITDA (x)Div Yield (%)Close DateAI.FP Close Price (EUR)Price Target (EUR)Upside/(Downside)52-Week RangeEDMFYEDiv YieldMarket Cap (EUR) (M)EV (EUR) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)EDM (%)Relative (%)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Price Performance, 1YR€200€190€180€170€160€15005/24 Mid-innings on margin improvement.Air Liquide are keen to hold themselves accountable on the extension of their Advancemargin targets, demonstrating their underlying confidence. The three key levers are: 1) above-inflation pricing, throughcontinuing to maximise value-based pricing when delivering better services for customers. The revised sales incentives shouldalso help; 2) efficiencies, where the deeper Air Liquide dig the more they find. Simplification and centralization continue apace,as does efforts to increase density; and 3) innovation, as delivering new technologies and getting closer to the customer deliversprofitable growth above industrial production. Air Liquide continue to want to make progress closing the gap vs. Linde.The electronics angle.Despite being only c. 9% of revenues, electronics makes up c. 1/3 of the €4.5bn backlog. Air Liquideexpect electronics to continue to be a key growth driver, supported by reshoring and AI - bigger chips means more gas. AirLiquide see their competitive advantage in Advanced Materials as unique in industrial gases, and see themselves becoming aone-stop shop across carrier gases, materials and equipment. China is a source of growth - despite Chinese local competitionincreasing in competitiveness, the technology edge, purity and reliability of the Western majors mean that they continue to winnew business, particularly on the leading edge.Air Liquide remain confident on the major Exxon project.Only €275m of a possible c. €850m has been contractuallyprotected and therefore included in the backlog. The regulatory picture continues to change, but based on the assumption thatthe 45V tax credit will still apply if construction starts in 2025, as per the most recent reading of ‘the big beautiful bill’, Exxonshould still have time to obtain the Japanese CFD approvals and move to FID later this year. The 45Q carbon capture creditis considered more secure. Air Liquide were more confident about green hydrogen in Europe, where they see regulation assupportive.EXHIBIT 1:Air Liquide and Linde - EBIT gases margin gaps and potential (%)Air Liquide% salesEBIT marginLinde plc% salesEBIT marginIntegrated gases8025%Integrated gases8427%Homecare720%Lincare/Homecare1020%Hardgoods/Elec.Equip etc812%Hardgoods/LPG etc612%Total22.5%Total25.0%2018 EBIT18.3%2018 EBIT20.5%Performance Gap bp420Performance Gap pre-synergies450Productivity Improvement/sales4.0%Productivity Improvement/sales9.0%Gases EBIT potential26.5%Gases EBIT potential34.0%EBIT 201919.1%EBIT 201921.9%EBIT 202020.4%EBIT 202024.4%EBIT 202119.6%EBIT 202126.1%EBIT 2022 ex energy pass-through20.3%EBIT 2022 ex energy pass-through26.6%EBIT 2023 ex pass-through vs 202121.0%EBIT 2023 ex pass-through vs 202129.0%EBIT 202320.0%EBIT 202329.0%EBIT 2024 ex energy pass-through22.3%EBIT 2024 ex pass-through vs 202131.7%EBIT 202421.5%EBIT 202431.4%Performance Gap vs 2024 bp500Performance Gap vs 2024 bp260Source: Bernstein analysis and estimates, company dataEUROPEAN CHEMICALS2 INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe rate Air Liquide Outperform.BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingAI.FPOEUREDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.EUROPEAN CHEMICALS I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYAir Liquide SAWe value the gas majors on prospective P