波音公司（BA）：快讯：波音公司-首席执行官凯利·奥特伯格出席伯恩斯坦战略决策会议2025

CAGR------Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$220$200$180$160$14005/24See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and other Price TargetBAAdjusted EPSBA (USD)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Decisions Conference 2025Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg joined Bernstein’s Strategic Decisions Conference in New York.Below are the key takeaways.Challenges and opportunities. The critical priority was to get the balance sheet restored,followed by stabilizing the business, which includes ramping up production. CEO is pleasedwith the progress so far, but there’s still a lot to do.Middle East Trip with US President. Middle East is a very important market, for bothDefense and Commercial. The Qatar order (200 planes) was the single largest order ever. Butthere are also other products that are important in the Middle East.Tariffs. As customers try to rebalance the trade deficit with the US, there is no better way ofdoing it than ordering from US companies. They expect the environment to remain “dynamic”.From an input tariff perspective, they identified the impact to $500m, mostly from Japan andItaly, mostly on 787. They don’t see a reason to think about the $500m impact differentlytoday. In many cases, these airplanes are exported and Boeing gets a duty drawback. Thetariff only concerns the US airlines sales. They are watching retaliatory tariffs closely. Theseare more impactful. China was a good example, with airlines having to stop taking deliveries.Deliveries should restart in June for China.Continued below...important information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 29 May 2025 15:15 UTC Completion Date: 29 May 2025 15:15 UTC F24AF25EF26E(20.38)(3.09)1.30FinancialsF24AF25EF26EEBIT (M)(10,707)729.274,778Net Earnings (M)(11,875)(1,304)1,809FCF (M)(14,261)(4,022)4,187Operating Margin (%)(16.1)0.94.7CapEx/Sales (%)3.33.02.7Dividend Payout Ratio (%)0.00.00.0(0.6)39.344.80.02.7636.324%DecNA12M17.411.06.4 BCAOrders vs. Capacity.The challenge is to be able to deliver these new orders. Boeing commits to a plan for future productionwith customers, but is sold out to the end of the decade. They are working on increasing production on all programs. They arequickly approaching the 38/month rate for 737Max. They will increase the rates for 787 and start 777X.737Max ramp. Boeing is getting very close to the 38/month. They will produce at that rate for a period of time to ensure itis sustainable for the production lines. Once they get the performance confirmation, they will review the production with theFAA and move to 42/month. This is critical for the FCF performance. Boeing is already confident they can start producing 42737Max/month. The next one would be 47. These gaps should be approximately 6-month apart. 47/month should be reachedin 2026. Moving to higher production rates will put pressure on the supply chain. In the past, the 52 rate was problematic (dueto Spirit Aero). Boeing is confident, because this is a recovery, not an achievement of all-time high rates. The CEO believes thesupply chain is ready for this. They will ensure they have everything it takes before increasing the rates. But many suppliers arealready working at high rates. The fuselage issues have improved. Boeing had produced up to 57/month in the past. They havebuilt additional capacity. All customers are reporting higher quality of the products. So, it’s not just about increasing capacity.Boeing also completed the milestone review on the 787 with the FAA to move from 5/month to 7/month.737-7 and 737-10 certifications.Close to getting certification on 737-7. Still some certifications pending for 737-10. Theywill continue to build the current programs as they wait for certifications. Some airlines also have exotic seat configurations forthe -10, which they are watching very closely.787 production.The program is a good example of where the supply chain has improved. The seating interiors have been aproblem. Especially where there are new configurations of seating, which require certification, and create delays. This is more acertification than an output issue. CEO expects the issue to be solved this year. In the longer-term, production should increaseagain. No specific timing on getting to 10/month. They can get to 10/month within the existing production setup. Going abovewill require investments, which they are already working on.777X. Most of the certifications are done. They have four flight test aircraft, progressing well. CEO is hopeful that the testscould be done in the short-term and start deliveries next year. The 777X has had more testing hours than any other aircraft,which is reassuring.777 Freighter. Program should be wrapped up in 2027. This will be transitioned to a 777XF configuration.Next generation. Next generation program is not for now. Engine technology is an important driver and is not ready yet.