美国半导体与半导体资本设备：在伯恩斯坦2026年战略决策会议上与5位CEO的对话

U.S. Semiconductors and Semicap Equipment: Conversationswith 5 CEOs at Bernstein's 2026 Strategic Decisions Conference Last week we hosted 5 senior semiconductor executives in and around our space (4covered, 1 not-covered) for fireside chats at Bernstein's 2026 (42nd annual) StrategicDecisions Conference. Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Specifically we held conversations with: Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Tim Archer, President and CEO of Lam Research(LRCX, rated OP, $340 PT)(webcast) Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Gary Dickerson, President and CEO of Applied Materials(AMAT, rated OP, $525 PT)(webcast) Cristiano Amon, President and CEO of Qualcomm(QCOM, rated MP, $140 PT)(webcast) Haviv Ilan, President and CEO of Texas Instruments(TXN, rated MP, $250 PT)(webcast) David Reeder, CEO of Entegris(ENTG, not covered) BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS LRCX (OP, $340):The company is benefiting from key inflections (GAA, packaging, HBM, NAND upgrades) and CY26/27commentary seems supportive. AMAT (OP, $525):Exposure to key inflections is strong & valuation vs peers is attractive. QCOM (MP, $140):Memory headwinds appear likely to pressure smartphone builds and numbers appear high; we shall see ifdatacenter dream is enough to attract buyers. TXN (MP, $250.00):TXN shares feel fully valued in the current environment. DETAILS Lam Research (LRCX) Timothy M. Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer Overall, the discussion was focused on how the proliferation of AI has positively impacted the trajectory WFE spending goingforward with Lam describing the underlying drivers of demand and outlining their exposure to these markets which should seestrong growth. Lam continues to see strong WFE demand going forward and maintained their CY26 guide of $140B whilstacknowledging there is likely upward bias to the number. CY27 WFE is also seen growing next year with management notingthat clean room space has been the largest constraint in the space, and will be the case next year, though they didn’t providean unconstrained WFE number. Over the past few years, Lam has intentionally invested into developing products that haveallowed them to diversify their end-market exposure, allowing them to capitalize on the growth seen across Foundry/Logic andAdvanced Packaging, though Lam remains proud of their memory leadership. Long-term visibility is quite strong, as customersdevelop their technology roadmaps, with Lam currently engaged and qualifying products that won’t ramp until the early 2030s.Gross margins are now in the “50s neighborhood”, with management proud of their progress and attributing the growth tostrategic manufacturing footprint expansion and delivering more value with their tools, and while mix can be a driver of margins,they have seen expansion despite lower China exposure. China exposure is expected to be flattish to up slightly this year, asmanagement can only compete on lagging edge nodes in the region. Highlights •The proliferation of AI has positively impacted the trajectory WFE spending going forward, with AI demand drivingstrength across every device type.With AI requiring more of everything, including leading edge compute, storage,memory, advanced packaging, and also requiring different materials in device architectures. There have been differentwaves of demand with AI training demand leading to more advanced foundry/logic demand, and now AI inference has led toincreased NAND demand and CPU demand. •The company maintained their CY26 guide of $140B whilst acknowledging there is likely upward bias to thenumber. CY27 WFE is also seen growing next year with managementnoting that clean room space has been thelargest constraint in the space, and will be the case next year, though they didn’t provide an unconstrained WFE number. •Over the past few years, Lam has intentionally invested into developing products that have allowed them todiversify their end-market exposure outside of Memory, allowing them to capitalize on the growth seen across Foundry/Logic and Advanced Packaging, though Lam remains proud of their memory leadership. •Long-term visibility is quite strong, as customers develop their technology roadmaps, with Lam currently engagedand qualifying products that won’t ramp until the early 2030s. •Gross margins are now in the “50s neighborhood”, with management proud of their progressand attributing thegrowth to strategic manufacturing footprint expansion and delivering more value with their tools, and while mix can be adriver of margins, they have seen expansion despite lower China exposure. •China exposure is expected to be flattish to up slightly this year, as management can only compete on lagging edgenodes in the region. Applied Materials (AMAT) Gary Dickerson, President, Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director Overall, the industry backdrop remains exceptionally strong with un