2026 年贸易与发展展望：全球经济遭遇地缘政治冲击

Global Economy Faces a Geopolitical Challenge An update on theTrade and Development Report 2025 Trade and DevelopmentForesights 2026 Global Economy Facesa Geopolitical Challenge An update on theTrade and Development Report 2025 © 2026, United Nations All rights reserved worldwide Requests to reproduce excerpts or to photocopy should be addressed to the CopyrightClearance Center at copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licences, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to: United Nations Publications405 East 42nd StreetNew York, New York 10017United States of AmericaEmail:publications@un.orgWebsite:https://shop.un.org/ The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not implythe expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legalstatus of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation ofits frontiers or boundaries. Mention of any firm or licensed process does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. This publication has not been formally edited. United Nations publication issued by the United NationsConference on Trade and Development ISBN: 978-92-1-159427-0eISBN: 978-92-1-154870-9Sales No. E.26.II.D.16 Table of contents Table of contents...........................................................................................................................iiiAcknowledgements........................................................................................................................vNote..............................................................................................................................................viExplanatory notes........................................................................................................................viiKey takeaways............................................................................................................................viii E.Regional developments:Momentum caught amid conflict and energy dependence.............................25 Figures Figure 1Most developing regions recorded firm industrialoutput through the end of 2025 and into 2026......................................................2Figure 2Global risks shifted from trade to geopolitics..........................................................3Figure 3Conflicts have reached a historical record..............................................................4Figure 4Conflict has ignited a surge in energy prices..........................................................6Figure 5Increases in long-term government bond yieldsin developed countries reflect an atypical flight to quality movement....................10Figure 6Developing countries’ currencies hit in the wake of the Middle East conflict........10Figure 7Gold prices have fallen since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict..................11Figure 8A new boom phase of portfolio investment emerged in 2025and persisted into early 2026..............................................................................12Figure 9.AWorld financial markets plunged in the wake of escalation in Middle East............13Figure 9.BFinancial volatility of emerging markets spikes amid geopolitical risks..................13Figure 10Investors seek higher returns on external sovereign bonds of developing countries.14Figure 11Yield change since pre-conflict on local government bond debt...........................15Figure 12Global investors’ rising interest in emerging market equities faces a setback.......16Figure 13AI-related hardware contributed massively to merchandise trade in 2025.............20Figure 14The conflict in the Middle East drives up maritime freight rates for energy...........22Figure 15Merchandise trade slowing down in 2026............................................................23 Table Table 1Global growth will decelerate to 2.6 per cent in 2026............................................................8 Boxes Box 1Economics of renewable energy receives a boost...............................................................17Box 2Driving change: Recent regional and sectoral initiatives in trade partnerships......................23 Acknowledgements TheTrade and Development Foresights 2026: Global Economy Faces a Geopolitical Challengewas prepared by a report team led by Anastasia Nesvetailova, of the Division on Globalizationand Development Strategies of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD). Team members included Jeronim Capaldo, Lyubov Chumakova, Cambiz Daneshvar,Pierre Kohler, Nicolas Maystre, Daniela Magalhaes Prates, Igor Paunovic, Dawei Wang and XinyiWei. UNCTAD interns Hana Arsalane, Luukas Heydemann, Harshita Prashar and Wei Hongprovided valuable support and inputs. The report also benefited from inputs and feedback provided by colleagues of the UNCTADDivision on Globalization and Development Strategies,