美国例外主义已经回归了吗？

Macro Strategist+1-212-250-9127 Exceptionalismback intheframe.We've argued several times inthe pastyearthattheUSexceptionalismof2023/24haswaned,notbecauseofanybigshiftintheUSbut becausetherestof theworldhas caughtup.Andthis change removes apillarof supportforthedollar.Butexceptionalismseemstobeback in2026,andhascontributed to our neutral (though not bullish) dollar view. There's plenty to like in the US.Forecasts are for US GDP growth to be top-3amongst G10 again after a lull last year, and for the US to exceed the peer averageby3/%pt(Figure1).Consistentwiththat,USdata surprises havebeen verypositivein recent months, a stark contrast to the eurozone (Figure 2).Similarly,earningsrevisions look far better in the US (Figure 3).And the Fed has been hawkishlyrepriced vs peers in thepastmonth-the 2-year spreadis upa chunky 40bps. Lastly,USequitieshaveoutperformed RoWby7%overthepastthreemonths.TheimpactoftheAlcycleisclearlyevident.Soarecipefordollarstrength?Notsofast-thereare some challenges with easily translating all this into a bullish dollar view S&Pnot GDP.While US equities have outperformed recently,they're stilla laggard on a 6-month and 12-month basis.And the US maybe a clearout-performer in economic terms, it's much less so when it comes tocorporate earnings, and that should matter more for global equityinvestors.Rest of world earnings havebeenkeepingpace with the US forsome time now -both are up 20%+ in the past six months (Figure 4).1There'salsothepointthatglobal investorsboughtrecord amountsofUsequities in2025,andmay wanttolighten up.TheTIC data indicatethis hashappenedabit in2026 (Figure5) Notinthetop-tier.DespitetherecentFedrepricing,theUSremains outsideofthetop-3foryields-aspotitlostayearago(Figure6).Andthepriceactionmay signal something-thisfront-end sell-offhasn't reallymovedthe dollar,but instead just seen the two 'reconnect' (Figure Z) Given the cross-currents, we shifted neutral on the dollarin Blueprint. The oil storyand potential for more Fed repricing pose upside risks. But an Iran war resolutionwould work the other way.While we wait,we like selling EUR/JPY amongstthehas gone the other way (Figure 8).And the BoJ sounds more hawkish lately FX Blog surprisedtothedownside Figure5:Foreignbuying of US equities has slowed a lot in2026,afterrecordbuyinglastyear FX Blog despite the data going the other way Appendix 1 ImportantDisclosures *Other information available upon request exchangesviaReuters,Bloomberg andothervendors.Otherinformationis sourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.Forfurtherinformation regarding disclosures relevanttoDeutsche Bank Research,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FiCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthis report,important riskand conflict disclosures canalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/DisclosureslDisclaimer.Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition,the undersigned lead analyst(s)has notand will not receive any compensation forprovidinga specific recommendation orviewinthis report.Tim Baker. FX Blog The informationand opinions in this report were preparedby Deutsche Bank AG orone of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank').Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has beenobtained from public sources believed tobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreport are provided for reader convenience only.Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oral orwritten)fromaDeutsche Bankanalyst,Deutsche Bankmayactasprincipalfor itsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountincluding strategists,sales staffand otheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistent withthosetaken inthis researchreport.Deutsche Bank issues a.variety_of research products,including fundamental analysis,equity-linked.analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas.'Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ fromrecommendations contained in others,whetheras a result of differing time horizons,methodologies,perspectives orotherwise.DeutscheBankand/orits affiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecurities of theissuersitwriteson.Analystsare paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking,tradingandprincipaltradingrevenues. Opinions,estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of thedate of this