美国与中国：科技例外主义

US vs. ChinaTech-ceptionalism Q3 Tech Performance Review October 1, 2025 Marion LabourePh.D,marion.laboure@db.comCamilla Siazon,camilla.siazon@db.com AUTHORS MarionLaboureisaSeniorEconomistatDeutscheBankinLondonandaLectureratHarvardUniversity. Shebringsextensive experienceacrosstheprivatesector,publicpolicy,andmonetarypolicy,havingworkedattheEuropeanCommission,theIMF,theLuxembourgCentralBank,andBarclays. Shehasreceivedmultipledistinction,includingfirstprizefromtheAmericanSocietyofActuaries,RevueBanqueasarisingstarinfinance,selectionasoneofthe45standoutwomeninfintech,andbeingnamedasa“cryptocurrencymastermind”byBusinessInsider. SheistheauthorofDemocratisingFinance,publishedbyHarvardUniversityPress. CamillaSiazonisanAnalystonDeutscheBank’sMacroandThematicteaminLondonwhereshecoversdigitalassets,geopolitics,andglobalmacroeconomictrends. ShepreviouslyworkedatgeopoliticaladvisoryfirmsEurasiaGroupandGreenmantle,whereshefocusedonpoliticalandeconomicriskanalysis. SheholdsadualMA/MScinInternationalHistoryfromColumbiaUniversityandtheLondonSchoolofEconomics,aswellasaBAinHistoryfromBarnardCollege,ColumbiaUniversity. Q3 Tech Performance Review:US Tech-ceptionalism, China on its heels Q3sawthe"Mag7"surge17%,upover60%sinceLiberationDaylows,boostingUS and global equities.The rally was driven by positivemomentuminAI,strongUS-Chinatradesignals,andsolidearningsfromcloudandAIleaders. TheMag7nowaccountsfor~35%oftheS&P500and~65%oftheNasdaq100,meaningmarketperformanceisheavilydependentonahandfulofcompanies. AIcapexisalsonowthekeyengineofUSgrowth,settobethebiggestmacrothemeby2026.NvidiaandOpenAI’s~$100bninvestmentindatacentershighlightsAI’sgrowinginfrastructurefootprint.MostAIdemandisclouddriven. Digitalassetsandfintechalsooutperformed,helpedbytheUSGENIUSActonstablecoinsadvancinginJuly(readhere).Still,ex-techspending,theUSwouldhavebeenneararecession. Meanwhile,theHangSengTechrose~22%inQ3,afteraweakerH1hitbyUSexportcontrols.China’sCSI300Tech(~51%)alsooutperformeditsWestern counterparts this quarter,as Beijing accelerated AIintegrationintotheeconomy. Europe,inthemeantime,isbeingincreasinglyleftbehindafterstronggrowthinH1,withtheSTOXX600Techdown-0.3%thisquarter. SUMMARY of Q3 tech performance ❑Financial markets continued to improve since Liberation day, supported by continued AI optimism and resilient economic growth. TheS&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs on Sep 22 following news of Nvidia and Open AI’s strategic partnership. ❑The Magnificent 7 is up >60% since April. Still, the rebound has been volatile at times–the index fell in late August/early September as AIvaluations concerns resurfaced. Nvidia was again a key driver, with earnings pointing to slowing revenue growth. US tech equities remainexposed to bubble risk.❑Key downside risks—US–China rivalry.Flashpoints in AI rivalry could escalate ongoing US-China negotiations.—Tariffs.Existing tariffs are still filtering through, while sector-specific measures on semiconductors are not yet announced.—Geopolitical conflicts.Further escalation in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, or China-Taiwan could destabilize markets.HMM Global tech equities have recovered after this year’s dip 1. MAGNIFICENT 7All about AI ❑Theindexrebounded+17%inQ3.US“Tech-ceptionalism”returnedinJuly,supported by a positive earnings season.,although AIovervaluationconcernsresurfacedinlateAugust/earlySeptember. ❑DataandAIinfrastructureinvestmentremainsakeysupport.Thefourlargesthyperscalersaresettospend~$400bnin2025,andNvidiaCEOJensenHuangforecasts$3-4trninAIinfrastructureby2030. ❑Q3 news highlights:❑Alphabet agreed to heavily discount cloud services for the Trumpadministration.❑Amazoncommitted$4.4bninNewZealanddatacenters.❑AppleraiseditsUSinvestmentpledgeto$600bnover4years.❑MetaplanstoshareAIinfrastructurecostsviaa$2bnassetsale.❑Microsoftbrieflybecametheworld’ssecondlargestcompanywhenitsmarketcapsurpassed$4trnonAug30.❑Nvidia resumed H20 GPUexport toChina with anew“fullycompliant”chips,in exchange for giving 15%of revenue toWashington.❑Teslaadvancedits in-housechiproadmapinAug,withElonMuskannouncing the company would streamline its chipresearchdesign. Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg Finance LP. September 30, 2025. 1. MAGNIFICENT 7For better or for worse, Nvidia continues to be a major market mover Nvidia’s market cap is now larger than every country’s entire listed stockexchange apart from the US, China, Japan and India Nvidiaremains the market’s key swing factor.In August,theNasdaqComposite fell-1.15%weekly after Nvidia’s earningssignaledslowingdatacenterrevenuegrowth.Nvidiaalsodeclined-2.82%onSep23,asinitialenthusiasmoveritsOpenAIpartnershipfaded,withinvestorswarythatgrowthnowdependsonfinancingitsowncustomers. Recent investments–impressive, but raising questions❑$100bn pledged to support OpenAI’s data centers and AI infrastructure (Sep 22).❑$5bn invested in Intel to co-develop custom data center and PCproducts (Sep 18).❑$5bn partnership with Alibaba to expand global data center