升级至买入：超越模拟复苏，数据中心业务推动增长加速

Semiconductors&Equipment Upgrade to Buy: Expanding beyond the analog recovery +Data centre exposure supports accelerating growth+ Improving pricing and product mix underpin margin resilience+Upgradeto Buyfrom Hold; revise estimates and increase TPtoRMB156.10fromRMB70.50 156.1070.50SHARE PRICE (CNY)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE116.66+33.8%(as of 26 May 2026) Fundamentals continueto improve.SGMicro's sharepricewas up62%inthepasttwo months (vs 56% for the Wind Semiconductor Index), driven by the ongoing analogrecovery cycle and rising optimism around Al-related demand. Overseas leaders suchas TI and ADI have delivered five consecutive quarters of y-o-y revenue growth in1Q26.Meanwhile,domestic vendors are increasingly penetrating Al server and datacentre applications. Previously,we were too cautious on the impact of a slowdown inconsumer electronics demand; we nowupdate our view and believe SG Micro is wellpositioned to benefit. Looking ahead, management has guided on the earnings callthatnetworkingandcomputingrevenuecontributionwillbe20%+in2026(vsbelow20% in 2025), supporting further earnings upside. The stock currently trades at 88x2026e PE, below other domestic leaders such as Brightpower and 3Peak, leavingroomforfurtherre-rating.Wealso introduceour2028 estimates inthis report. Al infrastructureopensasizeablegrowthopportunity.Foropticalmodules,SGMicro now offers LDO, DC-DC, APD bias, EML bias, TEC driver, and AFE bias products,with management indicating current content value of several Us dollars per module(source: 1Q26 earnings call).We estimate the global TAM for high-speed optical-moduleanalog components (excludingDSPs)could reach cUSD2bn by2028, creatingasizeablemid-termopportunity.Thecompanyisalsostrengtheningitsserverpowerportfolio,recently launching the Smart Power Stage DrMOS product SGM25890.Management indicated server-side content value could reach USD30-50 per unitwithin two years.We,accordingly,raise our 2026-27 revenue forecasts by 7-11%. A healthier pricing environment supports margin resilience. Amid graduallynormalised inventory,multipleroundsofpriceincreaseshavebeenimplementedbyleading overseas players since 2H25.Notably,TIannounced a third round ofportfolio-wide price adjustments in May 2026, effective from July. Domestic peerssuch as Novosenseand Halo Microelectronics also followed this trend and issuedand material cost inflation may increase input costs, we believe SG Micro canmaintainrelativelystable grossmarginsthrough richerproduct-mix contributions Cara Su*(Reg. No.S1700525070001)Analyst, A-share IT Hardware ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedcara.z.h.su@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662080 StevenSun*,CFA (Reg.No.S1700517110003)HeadofResearch, HSBCQianhai SecuritiesLimitedHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedstevensun@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 8898 3158 Upgrade to Buy from Hold; raise TP to RMB156.10 (from RMB70.50). We increaseour TP based on: (1) a higher target PE of 118.0x (54% higher than the 2017-25average of 76.9x, from 57.3x), as we now expect a 2026-28 net profit CAGR of 38%on a higher base (vs 2025-27 net profit CAGR of 37% previously), 54% above its2017-25 net profit CAGR of 25%; and (2)a higher 2026e EPS estimate of RMB1.32(previously RMB1.23). Our TP implies c34% upside, and we upgrade the stock fromHold to Buy.Seepage 5 for key downside risks *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations HSBCFundingtheFuture Survey Sentiment, Al and Private Credit Click to view With this report, Cara Su assumes primary coverage of sG Micro. Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Qianhai Securities at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Source: HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesNote: Priced atclose of26 May 2026 We increase our net profit estimates by 8% in 2026, and 13% in 2027, based on: Increased revenue estimates.We increase our revenue estimates by7%in2026and11% in 2027, respectively, as we factor in: (1) the higher-than-expected shipment outlookforpowermanagementproducts,mainlyattributabletotherisingdemandfromserverandoptical transceiver segments;(2)we increase our signal chain revenue estimates by 3% in2026 and 11% in 2027due to the continuous recovery of the industrials segment. Increased GPM estimates. Although analog lines are running at a high UTR level and mayincrease foundry cost, we believe the positive effect of improving product mix is enough tocover the downward pressure.Therefore, we increase our blended gross profitmarginaround 50%. Decreasing operating expenses.We decreaseour2026-27e operatingexpensesestimates, particularly R&D expenses, to factor in SG Micro's better-than-expected costmanagement. However, we remain confident of SG Micro's innovative capability with itsaccumulated know-hows. With this report, we introduce our 2